Market evolution: Raw cane sugar (CN 170114) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of raw cane sugar (Combined Nomenclature code 170114) in the European Union over the period 2015–2025. This product category covers raw cane sugar in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matter, and excludes the specific muscovado-type cane sugar classified under 170113. The analysis draws on trade flow data (imports, exports, prices, quantities), partner-level breakdowns, concentration indices, volatility metrics, production volumes, and vulnerability indicators to provide a comprehensive picture of how the EU's external sugar trade has evolved over a decade marked by significant policy and market shifts.

1. A Decade of Declining Import Volumes and Rising Supplier Concentration

The EU's raw cane sugar imports underwent a structural transformation over 2015–2025, characterised by substantially lower volumes, a dramatic reorientation toward Brazil, and a sharp increase in supplier concentration.

Total import volumes fell by nearly half while unit values climbed

EU imports of raw cane sugar dropped from approximately 1.86 million tonnes in 2015 to around 949,000 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 48.9%. Import value fell less steeply—by 34.1%, from €707 million to €466 million—because average import prices rose by 29.0%, from €380 per tonne to €491 per tonne over the same period. The import value peaked at approximately €968 million (with volumes reaching nearly 1.9 million tonnes), while the trough occurred at around €314 million. This pattern suggests that while the EU needed less raw cane sugar from external sources, the cost of securing those supplies increased materially.

Source: General Overview

Brazil emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier

The most striking feature of the import landscape is the ascendance of Brazil. Brazilian exports of raw cane sugar to the EU surged from approximately €37 million in 2015 to €279 million in 2025—an increase of 661.3%—with peak imports from Brazil reaching some €476 million. In the process, Brazil displaced a range of traditional suppliers. Imports from Cuba collapsed from €82 million to near zero (−99.9%), Mozambique similarly fell from €83 million to negligible levels (−99.8%), and the United Kingdom—whose exports to the EU were partly a legacy of its sugar re-export arrangements—declined from €33 million to under €300,000 (−99.1%). Eswatini, which was the largest single supplier in 2015 at €100 million, saw its share shrink to €24 million (−75.9%). Meanwhile, South Africa grew from under €1 million to €26 million, suggesting some diversification, though on a much smaller scale.

Source: Partners

Import concentration increased dramatically

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU raw cane sugar imports by value rose from 860 in 2015 to 3,829 in 2025—an increase of 345%. An HHI below 1,500 is generally considered indicative of a competitive, diversified market, while values above 2,500 signal high concentration. The crossing of this threshold reflects the shift toward Brazilian dominance and the withdrawal or marginalisation of many smaller suppliers. By volume, the HHI increased even more sharply, from 947 to 4,909 (+418%). This concentration trend represents a significant strategic vulnerability: the EU's access to raw cane sugar has become heavily dependent on a single origin, exposing supply chains to country-specific risks such as weather events, policy changes, or logistics disruptions in Brazil.

Source: Concentration

The internal composition of imports shifted from refining-grade to non-refining-grade sugar

The product breakdown reveals a striking structural shift within CN 170114. Imports of the refining-grade subheading (17011410) collapsed from approximately 1.58 million tonnes in 2015 to just 87,000 tonnes in 2025, a decline of over 94%. By contrast, imports of the non-refining-grade subheading (17011490) grew from approximately 277,000 tonnes to 862,000 tonnes—an increase of 211%. This suggests that the EU's demand for raw cane sugar destined specifically for refining operations contracted sharply (likely linked to the end of the EU sugar quota regime in 2017, which increased the competitiveness of domestic beet sugar), while demand for raw cane sugar for direct consumption or other industrial uses expanded.

Source: Product Compare

2. The Near-Disappearance of EU Raw Cane Sugar Exports

Alongside the import contraction, EU exports of raw cane sugar experienced a dramatic decline in both volume and value, suggesting the EU has progressively withdrawn from re-exporting or transit trade in this product.

Export volumes collapsed to residual levels

EU exports of raw cane sugar fell from approximately 57,086 tonnes (worth €27.4 million) in 2015 to just 6,651 tonnes (worth €8.4 million) in 2025, representing declines of 88.3% in quantity and 69.3% in value. The steeper volume decline relative to value is explained by a 165.8% surge in export unit values, from €476 per tonne to €1,264 per tonne. At their lowest point, exports reached just 3,757 tonnes, and the trade balance in this product remained deeply negative throughout the period, albeit improving from −€679 million to −€457 million (+32.7% improvement), primarily because imports fell faster than exports.

Source: General Overview

The United Kingdom was the primary export destination and its collapse mirrors Brexit dynamics

The UK accounted for the vast majority of EU raw cane sugar exports in value terms, starting at €22.7 million in 2015. This declined precipitously to just €652,000 by 2025 (−97.1%). A particularly severe supply shock was detected in 2021, when the UK's import of raw cane sugar from the EU fell by 99.7%, and price spikes of over 238–312% were observed simultaneously in UK-EU trade flows. These dynamics are consistent with the impact of Brexit and the end of the EU-UK sugar trade arrangements that had been in place during the transition period. The HHI for EU exports fell from 6,918 to 900 (−87.0%), reflecting the disappearance of the dominant UK market rather than genuine diversification. Other small export destinations—Norway, Switzerland, and Japan—remained relatively stable or grew modestly, but in absolute terms they represent marginal volumes.

Source: Partners

France led the decline among EU exporting Member States

France was by far the largest EU exporter of raw cane sugar in 2015 at €21.7 million, but its exports fell by 83.6% to €3.6 million by 2025. Denmark, Belgium, and Germany maintained modest but relatively stable export volumes. Ireland and Spain also saw significant contractions of 57.3% and 71.7% respectively. The concentration of EU exports in France and the near-total reliance on the UK market explain why Brexit had such a pronounced impact on the overall export profile.

Source: Reporters

3. Domestic Resilience: Production Stability and Reduced External Dependence

Despite the upheaval in trade flows, EU domestic production of sugar from cane and beet remained remarkably stable, and the EU's net import reliance declined over the decade—suggesting that the contraction in raw cane sugar imports was partly offset by increased domestic production capacity.

EU sugar production held steady in volume and grew in value

EU production of raw cane and beet sugar (under the Prodcom mapping to 10.81.11.00) remained broadly stable, moving from approximately 1.75 billion kg in 2015 to 1.8 billion kg in 2025 (+3.1%). Production value, however, increased significantly from €771 million to €1.23 billion (+59.0%), reflecting higher global sugar prices. The peak production volume reached approximately 2.39 billion kg, with a trough at 1.5 billion kg, indicating some inter-annual volatility but no sustained downward trend. This stability is notable given that the EU abolished its sugar production quotas in October 2017, which one might have expected to generate more pronounced shifts.

Source: Production Volumes

Net import reliance declined, indicating improved self-sufficiency

The EU's net import reliance for raw cane sugar fell from 34.3% in 2015 to 28.6% in 2025 (−16.5%), having peaked at 56.6% at some point during the period. Trade intensity followed a similar trajectory, declining from 35.4% to 29.5%. Export propensity—the share of domestic production that is exported—also fell significantly, from 1.06% to 0.75% (−30.0%). These indicators collectively point toward a market that has become less externally dependent, consistent with the expansion of EU beet sugar production following quota liberalisation partially substituting for imported raw cane sugar. The salience analysis identifies export propensity as the most structurally significant metric, with a salience score of 79.3 compared to 37.2 for trade intensity, underscoring the EU's transition from being a marginal re-exporter to a primarily inward-looking market for this product.

Source: Net Import Reliance

Specialisation remains concentrated in a few Member States

In terms of trade specialisation, Portugal stands out as the most specialised EU Member State in raw cane sugar, with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.93 and an RCA of 28.8 in 2025. Its production share in this product reaches nearly 40% of its total sugar-related activity. Lithuania, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands also display moderate specialisation. At the other end, Ireland, Luxembourg, Romania, Estonia, and Poland show no meaningful specialisation in this product, with RCA values near zero. Spain and Portugal dominated EU import activity, with Spain growing its imports by 70% to €159 million and Portugal increasing by 14.4% to €124 million. Romania, once a major importer at €113 million, collapsed by 98.4% to under €2 million, and the Netherlands similarly declined by 90.1%.

Source: Specialisation

Supply-side volatility was concentrated in a handful of partners

Volatility analysis reveals that several trade partners exhibited highly unstable trade flows. Among EU import sources, Mozambique (coefficient of variation of 1.18) and the United Kingdom (CV of 1.15) showed the highest volatility, while Mauritius (CV of 0.22) was the most stable. On the export side, Mauritius (CV of 2.02) and Libya (CV of 1.38) displayed extreme volatility in EU export destinations, though at very low absolute values. The detection of price shocks in the UK-EU trade corridor in 2021—characterised by abnormality scores of 30–44 and price shifts of 238–312%—highlights the structural disruption caused by Brexit. A further supply shock in UK imports from the EU in 2024, with a near-total supply cessation (−99.7%), confirms that the UK market has effectively closed for EU raw cane sugar.

Source: Volatility

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's raw cane sugar market underwent a profound structural transformation. Import volumes nearly halved, driven largely by the near-total withdrawal of traditional suppliers such as Cuba, Mozambique, and the United Kingdom, and the simultaneous rise of Brazil as the dominant origin—a shift that has pushed import concentration to levels traditionally considered high-risk. The EU's export profile has effectively collapsed, with Brexit eliminating the UK as the primary destination market. Domestically, stable production volumes and increased self-sufficiency suggest that the EU's abundant beet sugar capacity, unleashed by the 2017 quota reform, has partially substituted for raw cane sugar imports. The market that remains is smaller, more concentrated in its supply origins, more oriented toward the Iberian Peninsula as an entry point, and structurally less connected to external trade than it was a decade ago.