Market evolution: White sugar (CN 170199) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade flows of the European Union in white and refined sugar (customs code 170199) with non-EU countries between 2015 and 2025. Over this decade, the EU's sugar market underwent significant structural shifts, moving from a period of adjustment following the end of production quotas in 2017 to one of acute price volatility. The analysis reveals a market where revenue growth has been driven predominantly by rising unit values rather than expanding volumes, accompanied by a substantial reorientation of trade partnerships and a marked decrease in import reliance.

Price Supersession: How Rising Values Masked Stagnant Volumes

The most prominent dynamic in the 2015-2025 period is the divergence between trade values and physical volumes, particularly for exports. While the value of EU sugar exports increased by 31.5% over the decade, the quantity shipped rose by a mere 2.6%. This indicates that export revenue growth was almost entirely fuelled by higher prices, not by increased physical trade. The average export price surged from €421 per tonne in 2015 to €539 per tonne in 2025, a 28.1% increase.

Export Value vs. Quantity Trajectories

EU export values fluctuated significantly, peaking at €1.36 billion in 2023, while export volumes reached their maximum of 3.66 million tonnes back in 2018 before entering a period of decline and recovery. The period 2019-2022 saw a sharp contraction in exported quantities, falling to a low of 881,035 tonnes in 2020, before a strong rebound in 2024.

(Source: General Overview)

The Import Side: A Consolidating Market

Import dynamics mirrored this price effect but with a stark volume decline. The value of imports fell by 5.5% between 2015 and 2025, but the quantity dropped by 28.7%. Consequently, the import price rose even more sharply than export prices, increasing by 32.5% to €629 per tonne. This suggests the EU became more selective in its sourcing, paying a premium for smaller volumes.

The Great Partner Reconfiguration

A dramatic restructuring of the EU's sugar trade relationships occurred over the decade, characterized by the decline of traditional suppliers and the rise of new ones. This realignment is visible in both import and export flows.

Erosion of Traditional Supply Chains

On the import side, long-standing suppliers saw their market share collapse. Imports from Mauritius plummeted by 79.3%, while those from the United Kingdom (post-Brexit) and Serbia fell by 43.8% and 87.8% respectively. Conversely, Ukraine saw its exports to the EU skyrocket by 888.6%, though from a low base. This reflects the impact of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement and, later, trade liberalization measures. Brazil and Colombia also strengthened their positions as key suppliers, with increases of 33.7% and 132.7%.

(Source: Top Partners by Value)

Diversification of Export Destinations

EU export destinations also diversified. While the United Kingdom remained the single largest market, its share of EU export value more than halved (from €268 million to €127 million). In contrast, exports to Israel and Lebanon more than doubled. The most significant growth was seen in neighboring and Mediterranean markets, indicating a shift in the EU's export focus. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration fell by 56.9%, confirming this move towards a less concentrated export portfolio.

Market Structure and Strategic Autonomy

Underlying the trade flow changes were shifts in production, specialization, and strategic positioning. The EU sugar market demonstrated increased self-sufficiency and a restructuring of internal production advantages.

Declining Production and Internal Specialization

EU production of sugar in solid form decreased by 18.4% in volume (from 18.3 billion kg to 14.9 billion kg) and by 1.0% in value over the period. Within the bloc, production became more concentrated in countries with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA). France and Lithuania emerged as the most specialized producers in 2025, while large consumer markets like Italy and Ireland showed very low specialization, relying on inter-EU trade or imports.

Enhanced Strategic Positioning

The EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout the period (indicating net exporter status), improving from -6.6% in 2015 to -7.2% in 2025, meaning the bloc slightly increased its overall net export surplus. Concurrently, trade intensity (the share of trade in production) rose by 71.2%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased by 51.3%. This points to a market that, despite producing less volume, became more globally integrated and outward-looking, leveraging price premiums in export markets to offset lower volumes.

Conclusion

The EU white sugar market between 2015 and 2025 was characterized by value-driven growth, partnership volatility, and enhanced strategic autonomy. The sector successfully navigated the post-quota liberalization and global price shocks by shifting from a volume to a value-centric export model, underpinned by rising unit prices. Trade relationships were radically reshaped, with traditional suppliers like the UK and Mauritius declining in importance relative to new entrants like Ukraine and stronger ties with South America and the Mediterranean. Internally, production consolidated in specialized regions, while the bloc as a whole solidified its net exporter position and became more deeply integrated into global trade flows, albeit with a more diversified partner base. The data suggests a mature industry that has adapted its strategy to compete on value rather than volume in a volatile global market.