Market evolution: Raw cane sugar (CN 17011310) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in raw cane sugar for refining (customs code 17011310) over the period 2015–2025. The product falls under CN 17011310 and covers raw cane sugar with a sucrose content of 69° to 93°, obtained without centrifugation, in solid form without added flavouring or colouring matter. The period under review spans a decade during which the EU sugar market underwent a profound structural transformation — most notably following the end of the EU sugar production quota regime in October 2017. The data reveals a dramatic collapse in EU imports of this product, a modest emergence of EU exports, and a significant shift in the EU's strategic position regarding raw cane sugar supply.

1. The near-total collapse of EU raw cane sugar imports

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic and near-complete evaporation of EU imports of raw cane sugar for refining. What was once a multi-million-euro trade flow has been reduced to negligible volumes.

1.1 From millions of euros to near-zero

In 2015, the EU imported raw cane sugar worth approximately €7.27 million, corresponding to roughly 26,399 tonnes. By 2025, imports had fallen to just €20,749 in value and a mere 8.147 tonnes in volume — a decline of 99.7% in value and effectively 100% in quantity (General Overview).

The unit price of imports rose by 824.5% over the period, from €275/t to €2,547/t. This inverse relationship — collapsing volumes alongside surging prices — is consistent with a market where only small, niche, or residual shipments remain, rather than bulk commodity flows.

1.2 Romania was the epicentre of the decline

The collapse was concentrated in a small number of EU Member States. Romania alone accounted for the vast majority of the initial import value (€7.01 million in 2015), which fell to essentially zero by 2025 (Top reporters by value):

Germany is the sole exception, with imports actually rising by 44.3% over the period. However, this appears to reflect reclassification or niche industrial demand rather than a reversal of the broader trend.

1.3 The United Kingdom was the dominant supplier — and is now residual

The United Kingdom was by far the largest external supplier of raw cane sugar to the EU, with imports worth €7.27 million in 2015. This fell to €20,686 by 2025, a decline of 99.7% (Top partners by value). The UK's pre-eminence as a supplier was largely a function of its historical role as a refining hub for Commonwealth cane sugar, a role that was disrupted both by Brexit (from 2020 onwards, with the UK leaving the EU customs territory) and by the broader EU market restructuring.

Colombia, which had been a secondary supplier (€232,475 in 2015), saw its exports to the EU fall by 88.9% to €25,885. Other traditional cane sugar suppliers — Uganda, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Pakistan — supplied only marginal volumes throughout the period.

1.4 Import concentration remained extreme despite the volume collapse

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value remained at or near the theoretical maximum of 10,000 throughout the period (ending at 9,939 in 2025). This reflects the fact that even as total volumes collapsed, the remaining trade was overwhelmingly concentrated in a single partner — the United Kingdom. The import market became not merely smaller but structurally more concentrated, as alternative suppliers exited before or alongside the UK.

2. A modest but growing EU export presence

While imports collapsed, the EU developed a small but measurable export profile in raw cane sugar for refining — a product the bloc was previously a net importer of.

2.1 Export values grew from negligible to still-modest levels

EU exports of CN 17011310 rose from €387 (0.274 tonnes) in 2015 to €24,812 (8.964 tonnes) in 2025, representing growth of 6,305% in value and 3,172% in volume (General Overview). The unit export price also rose significantly, from €1,414/t to €2,767/t (+95.7%).

While the percentage growth rates are extraordinary, they reflect very low starting bases. In absolute terms, exports remained two to three orders of magnitude smaller than imports were at their peak. The EU is not a significant exporter of raw cane sugar for refining.

2.2 Export destinations diversified significantly

Export concentration fell dramatically, with the HHI for export value declining from 10,000 (2015) to 2,963 (2025), a drop of 70.4%. This indicates that EU exports, though small, moved from being concentrated in a single destination to being spread across several partners.

The main export destinations in 2025 were:

The United Kingdom and Switzerland emerged as the two largest export markets by 2025, together accounting for the majority of EU export value. Geographically, the pattern is consistent with short-sea or overland shipments to neighbouring non-EU countries, suggesting logistical convenience rather than competitive positioning on global cane sugar markets.

2.3 Several EU Member States drove the export growth

Among EU reporters, the following Member States were the principal exporters:

France and Italy showed the most dynamic growth, while Belgium and the Netherlands — initially the largest exporters — saw modest declines. This suggests a shift in the geography of EU cane sugar re-exports, with Southern and Western European ports taking on greater importance.

3. Structural transformation and the EU's path toward sugar autonomy

Beyond the trade flow data, the period 2015–2025 reveals a broader structural transformation in the EU's relationship with raw cane sugar, characterised by stable domestic production, declining import reliance, and a reconfiguration of the market's specialisation profile.

3.1 EU sugar production remained broadly stable

Despite the collapse in imports of raw cane sugar for refining, EU sugar production volumes were relatively stable over the period:

Production volumes grew modestly (+3.1%), while production value rose sharply (+59.0%). This divergence reflects significant price inflation in the sugar market, consistent with the global trend of rising agricultural commodity prices in the 2020s. The stability of production volumes, combined with the collapse of raw cane sugar imports, indicates that the EU's sugar supply increasingly relied on domestically grown beet sugar rather than imported cane sugar for refining.

3.2 Net import reliance declined, confirming a shift toward self-sufficiency

The net import reliance for this product fell from 34.3% in 2015 to 28.6% in 2025, a decline of 16.5%. The peak was reached at 56.6% at an intermediate point, suggesting a period of heightened import dependence followed by a sharp correction — likely coinciding with the 2017 quota abolition and subsequent market restructuring.

Similarly, trade intensity fell from 35.4% to 29.5% (−16.7%), and export propensity declined from 1.06% to 0.75% (−30.0%). The export propensity indicator registered the highest salience score (79.3), confirming that the EU's outward orientation in this product market weakened considerably.

3.3 The specialisation profile points to a niche and asymmetric EU role

In 2025, specialisation data reveals a highly uneven picture across EU Member States:

Portugal stands out with an extremely high Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA of 20.09) and a strongly positive RSCA, consistent with its historical role as a processor of cane sugar from former Portuguese-speaking colonies (e.g., Brazil, Mozambique). The Netherlands and France show moderate specialisation, likely reflecting port logistics and some residual refining capacity. The majority of large EU economies — Germany, Italy, Belgium, Poland — show negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers without competitive advantage in this product.

3.4 Price shocks concentrated in UK-related trade flows

The volatility analysis reveals that the most significant price shocks in the period were concentrated in trade with the United Kingdom:

The 2023 import price shock from the UK, with an abnormality score of 45.2 and a price shift of +776.8%, is the most extreme event detected. Given the already minimal volumes involved, this likely reflects the pricing of a small residual shipment rather than a market-wide supply disruption. Nonetheless, it underscores the extreme price volatility that characterises a trade flow reduced to near-zero volumes, where individual transactions can dramatically alter average unit values.

The UK export price shock in 2021 (abnormality 34.3, shift +144.4%) may reflect the initial post-Brexit trade adjustment and the reclassification of flows between the EU and UK customs territories.

Conclusion

The EU trade in raw cane sugar for refining (CN 17011310) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Imports — once a multi-million-euro, multi-thousand-tonne trade flow dominated by UK-origin cane sugar and concentrated in Romania — collapsed to near-zero levels, reflecting the combined effects of the 2017 EU sugar quota abolition, the rise of domestic beet sugar production, and Brexit-related trade reconfiguration. A modest EU export presence emerged, characterised by small volumes, diversified but geographically proximate destinations, and growing contributions from France and Italy. Throughout, EU sugar production remained stable in volume terms while growing substantially in value, confirming the bloc's shift toward greater self-sufficiency in sugar supply. The market for this specific raw cane sugar product has, for all practical purposes, become a marginal element of the EU's broader sugar trade landscape.