Market evolution: Steel scrap (CN 72044990) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in waste and scrap of iron or steel, not fragmentised and not in bundles (Customs code 72044990), over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on trade data concerning EU extra-territorial trade. The product is a residual category within the broader class of ferrous waste and scrap, excluding more specific types like cast iron, stainless steel, or shredded material. The decade was characterized by a significant expansion of the EU's role as a net exporter of this material, driven by robust demand from key overseas partners.
1. The Decade of the Export Boom
The EU's external trade in steel scrap was overwhelmingly defined by a massive expansion in exports. The Union solidified its position as a major global supplier, with the value and volume of shipments growing substantially while imports expanded more moderately.
1.1 Export growth outpaces imports significantly
From 2015 to 2025, the value of EU exports grew by 181.2%, from approximately €1.16 billion to €3.26 billion. In volume, exports nearly doubled, increasing by 94.1% from 5.38 million tonnes to 10.45 million tonnes. In contrast, imports saw more moderate growth: their value rose by 50.7% (to €0.78 billion) and volume by 13.4% (to 2.62 million tonnes). This divergent growth cemented a large and growing trade surplus, which expanded by 286.1% to reach nearly €2.5 billion by 2025.
1.2 Traditional and emerging markets fueled demand
The export boom was not uniform but was concentrated in a mix of established and new markets.
| Top 3 Export Destinations (by Value) | Value Growth (2015-2025) | Key Observation |
|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | +155.7% | Dominant partner, consistently the largest market, with volatility (CV: 0.19). |
| Egypt | +424.1% | Rapidly growing market, becoming the second-largest destination by 2025. |
| India | +1,018.4% | High-growth emerging market, with the largest percentage increase among top partners. |
1.3 A reallocation of EU export capacity among Member States
The responsibility for serving these global markets shifted within the EU. The Netherlands and Poland became the bloc's premier exporters, while other nations consolidated or altered their positions.
| Top 3 EU Exporters (by Value) | Value Growth (2015-2025) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | +185.3% | Remained the largest single exporter, nearly doubling its value share. |
| Poland | +2,706.7% | Dramatic growth, rising from a minor player to the sixth-largest exporter. |
| Germany | +289.3% | Significantly increased its export capacity. |
2. A Diversifying and Shifting Import Landscape
While exports dominated, the pattern of EU imports also underwent a clear transformation. The sources of imported scrap became more geographically diverse and less concentrated on the UK, the historically dominant supplier.
2.1 Reduced dependence on the United Kingdom
The UK remained the largest single source of imports over the period, but its share declined sharply. Its import value fell by 38.7%, from €327 million to €200 million. This loss in relative importance is part of a broader diversification trend.
2.2 The rapid rise of new import sources
Several partners experienced extraordinary growth in exports to the EU, reshaping the top supplier list.
- Ukraine: Saw a value increase of over 2,100%, becoming a major source by 2025 (€93 million), though highly volatile (CV: 1.59).
- United States: Grew by over 2,000% to €169 million, indicating a significant new trade flow.
- Switzerland and Norway also saw strong growth, consolidating their positions as reliable regional suppliers.
2.3 Geographic concentration of EU importing
Within the EU, the demand for imported scrap concentrated in specific coastal and industrial economies.
| Top 3 EU Importers (by Value) | Value Growth (2015-2025) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Greece | +1,039.2% | Massive increase, rising from a minor to a major importer. |
| Italy | +303.6% | A traditionally strong industrial importer, significantly expanding its intake. |
| Netherlands | +513.5% | A major hub, growing its import role alongside its export dominance. |
3. Market Structure: Increasing Diversification Amidst Volatility
The underlying structure of the trade market evolved towards greater diversification in sourcing imports, while export markets remained more concentrated. This structural shift coincided with periods of significant price volatility and notable trade shocks.
3.1 Import markets became significantly less concentrated
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell by 59.4% over the period, from 4326 to 1758. This indicates a move away from a highly concentrated market (dominated by a few suppliers like the UK) towards a more competitive and diversified import base. The HHI for exports also fell, but by a more modest 14.2%, suggesting the destination markets for EU scrap, while also diversifying somewhat, remained more consolidated.
3.2 The most volatile trade relationships featured extreme price shocks
Volatility analysis (measured by coefficient of variation) highlights trade relationships subject to large fluctuations. Several major price shocks were detected in the data:
- The largest occurred in EU exports to Türkiye in 2021, with a 48.1% price shift.
- Imports from Ukraine saw a 470% price shock in 2020.
- Imports from the UK experienced a 59.1% price shock in 2021.
These shocks reflect the sensitivity of scrap trade to global steel demand cycles, energy costs, and geopolitical disruptions.
3.3 Specialization within the EU is highly uneven
Trade specialization analysis for 2025 reveals a stark divide. Small Member States like Cyprus (RSCA: 0.84) and Croatia (RSCA: 0.56) are highly specialized in exporting this product relative to their overall trade profile. In contrast, large industrial economies like Italy (RSCA: -0.93) and Ireland (RSCA: -0.97) are highly unspecialized, indicating they are net consumers and importers within the EU market.
Conclusion
The 2015–2025 period was transformative for the EU's trade in steel scrap (CN 72044990). The bloc’s primary dynamic was a powerful export expansion, transforming it into a leading global supplier with a large and growing trade surplus. This was driven by insatiable demand from traditional markets like Türkiye and booming new markets such as Egypt and India. Concurrently, the EU’s import structure diversified significantly, reducing historical dependence on the United Kingdom while absorbing increased volumes from new partners like Ukraine and the United States. The market exhibited increased structural diversity but also faced periods of significant price volatility and shocks, underscoring the commodity's sensitivity to global economic and geopolitical currents. The internal EU market featured considerable specialization, with smaller nations often more focused on export production than their larger industrial peers.