Market evolution: Shredded steel scrap (CN 72044910) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in shredded ferrous scrap (Combined Nomenclature code 72044910) over the period 2015–2025. Shredded scrap is a critical secondary raw material for electric-arc-furnace (EAF) steelmaking and is central to the EU's circular-economy and decarbonisation objectives. Over the decade under review, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of this commodity, yet the dynamics of that export role — its geographic orientation, price behaviour, and relationship to domestic production — shifted markedly. Three structural developments stand out: a sustained expansion of export volumes and values concentrated on a handful of destination markets; a dramatic geopolitical reorientation of import sources following the Russia–Ukraine conflict; and a tension between growing absolute exports and declining export propensity that points to increasing domestic demand for recycled ferrous inputs.

Full product scope and definitions are available on the trade dashboard overview.

1. The EU's Expanding but Moderating Role as a Net Exporter of Shredded Scrap

Export volumes and values surged over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of shredded scrap to non-EU partners rose from 1,952,253 tonnes (€418.5 million) to 3,351,752 tonnes (€1,041.2 million), representing increases of 71.7% in quantity and 148.8% in value. Unit export prices climbed from €214/t to €311/t (+44.9%), peaking at €405/t at the height of the commodity price cycle. The value peak was reached at €1,611.1 million, while the volume peak stood at 4,417,519 tonnes, indicating that the most intense export phase preceded the 2025 figures.

The trade surplus widened substantially — but import reliance moderated

The EU's trade surplus in shredded scrap expanded from €141.6 million in 2015 to €675.3 million in 2025 (+376.9%), reaching a peak of €1,211.8 million during the period. Throughout the entire window, the EU remained a net exporter: net import reliance was consistently negative, starting at −20.1% in 2015 and narrowing to −6.2% in 2025 (the most negative reading was −23.2%). This apparent paradox — a larger absolute surplus coexisting with a less negative net-import-reliance ratio — can be explained by the concurrent decline in export propensity, which fell from 31.4% to 23.5% (−25.1%). In other words, while the EU ships out more scrap in absolute terms, it retains a growing share for domestic consumption — a trend consistent with the expansion of EAF steelmaking capacity in the context of the European Green Deal.

EU domestic production of shredded scrap declined gently

EU production of shredded scrap edged down from 36.0 billion kg (2015) to 33.6 billion kg (2025), a decline of 6.7%. Production value fell from €9.1 billion to €8.78 billion (−3.5%). The modest contraction in output, combined with rising domestic demand from steelmakers, helps explain why trade intensity (trade as a share of production) decreased from 40.2% to 35.0% (−12.8%).

2. Geographic Reorientation: Turkey's Dominance and the Collapse of Russian Import Supply

Turkey absorbed the lion's share of EU export growth

The partner landscape for EU shredded scrap exports was heavily concentrated around Turkey, which alone received €256.3 million in 2015 and €655.7 million in 2025 (+155.8%), with a peak of €1,031.7 million. Turkey's share of EU extra-EU export value remained dominant throughout, and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value rose slightly from 3,962 to 4,164 (+5.1%), confirming a persistent — even slightly increasing — concentration on a small number of buyers.

Egypt, Moldova, and Norway emerged as rapidly growing outlets. Egypt's imports from the EU surged from a negligible €35,680 to €70.0 million; Norway's rose from €1.0 million to €69.1 million. These shifts likely reflect growing EAF capacity in Egypt and the role of Norwegian traders as intermediaries.

The UK remained the dominant import partner; Russia vanished

On the import side, the United Kingdom was the EU's principal supplier throughout, with import value rising from €125.7 million to €158.9 million (+26.4%). Norway was the second-largest source, growing from €46.0 million to €86.9 million (+89.0%).

The most dramatic development was the complete collapse of Russian supply. Russia exported €43.7 million of shredded scrap to the EU in 2015 but essentially zero in 2025 (just €63), a decline of −100%. This reflects the EU sanctions imposed on Russian ferrous scrap following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The volatility coefficient for Russian imports reached 1.26 — the highest among all import partners — confirming the abruptness of this disruption. The import HHI declined modestly from 2,700 to 2,595 (−3.9%), partly as a consequence of Russia's exit redistributing shares among remaining suppliers.

EU Member State roles shifted significantly

Among EU reporters, Romania and Sweden were consistently the largest extra-EU exporters, with Romania's shipments rising from €85.1 million to €179.9 million (+111.3%) and Sweden's from €66.8 million to €154.5 million (+131.3%). Belgium's exports surged from €10.5 million to €122.5 million (+1,071.6%), suggesting an expansion of its role as a scrap aggregation and re-export hub. On the import side, the Netherlands' imports exploded from €4.4 million to €82.5 million (+1,777%), while Portugal's rose from €13,400 to €70.3 million — both indicative of growing domestic EAF steelmaking demand in those countries.

Specialisation analysis for 2025 confirms that Czechia (RSCA: 0.49), Croatia (0.45), Portugal (0.44), and France (0.43) were the most specialised EU exporters of shredded scrap, while Italy (RSCA: −0.85) and Lithuania (−0.83) were the least specialised, acting primarily as net importers.

3. Price Surges, Supply Shocks, and the Emerging Scrap Retention Dynamic

A 2021 price shock rippled through both import and export channels

The shock detection analysis identifies three significant price shock events, all centred on 2021:

The 2021 commodity super-cycle — driven by post-COVID demand recovery, supply-chain disruptions, and surging global steel output — produced an abrupt repricing of shredded scrap across the board. Norway's import price shock was the most abnormal relative to its historical pattern (score: 57.2), while the Türkiye and Pakistan export price shocks reflected the pass-through of elevated global demand to the EU's main buyers. The unit export price peaked at €405/t and the unit import price at €425/t during this cycle, both period maxima.

Export partner volatility was generally higher than import partner volatility

Examining coefficient-of-variation scores across the full period, the most volatile export relationships were with Moldova (CV: 0.97), Belarus (0.91), India (0.82), and Egypt (0.78) — countries where trade volumes grew from negligible bases and hence displayed large proportional swings. Among import partners, Russia (CV: 1.26) and Israel (1.81) were the most volatile, with Russia's high score entirely explained by the sanctions-induced collapse. The core trading relationships — Turkey for exports (CV: 0.25), the UK for imports (CV: 0.34), and Norway for imports (CV: 0.09) — were considerably more stable.

Export concentration rose despite partner diversification at the margins

While new destinations such as Egypt, Moldova, and Norway absorbed increasing volumes of EU shredded scrap, the overall concentration of exports by value actually increased slightly (HHI from 3,962 to 4,164). Turkey's dominant position was reinforced rather than eroded: its share of the top-7 export destinations' total value grew in line with its absolute gains. On the import side, concentration eased (HHI from 2,700 to 2,595), reflecting the loss of Russia and the growth of secondary suppliers such as North Macedonia and Serbia.

The tension between expanding absolute exports and declining export propensity deserves emphasis. EU export volumes grew 71.7% in tonnage terms, yet export propensity fell from 31.4% to 23.5%. This implies that domestic demand for shredded scrap has been rising even faster than export volumes — a structural shift consistent with Europe's push toward EAF-based, low-carbon steelmaking. As EU steelmakers invest in green steel capacity, competition for domestically generated scrap is likely to intensify, potentially constraining future export growth despite the commodity's current strong trade performance.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as the world's leading net exporter of shredded steel scrap, with export values nearly two-and-a-half times their 2015 level and trade surpluses reaching well above €1 billion at their peak. This expansion was driven by voracious demand from Turkish and, increasingly, Pakistani and Egyptian steelmakers, and was amplified by the 2021 global commodity price spike. At the same time, the geopolitical landscape was reshaped by the disappearance of Russian scrap from the EU's import portfolio — a near-total collapse driven by sanctions that removed a once-significant supplier. Within the EU, Romania, Sweden, Belgium, and Lithuania emerged as key exporters, while the Netherlands and Portugal rapidly scaled up imports to feed growing domestic EAF capacity. Looking forward, the decline in export propensity and trade intensity, combined with falling domestic production, points to an emerging structural tension: the EU's own decarbonisation-driven steelmaking ambitions will increasingly compete with its traditional role as a scrap supplier to global markets.