Market evolution: 肉及び食用臓器 (CN 02) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in meat and edible meat offal (Customs Code 02) with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a market characterized by significant price inflation, a strategic diversification of trade partners, and a strengthening of the EU's position as a net exporter. Despite relatively stable trade volumes, the value of both exports and imports grew substantially, driven by rising unit prices. The analysis highlights three key dynamics: the dominant role of price increases in trade value growth, the reconfiguration of the EU's trade geography, and the underlying expansion of EU production capacity that supports export growth.

1. 価値の急騰：価格上昇がもたらす貿易成長

The EU's meat trade with the world grew substantially in value between 2015 and 2025, but this growth was almost entirely price-driven rather than volume-driven. While export values increased by 32.8%, export volumes slightly declined by 4.0%. Similarly, import values surged by 38.2% despite a 4.3% drop in imported volumes. This indicates that the expansion in trade monetary value is a consequence of significant price inflation across meat product categories.

1.1. 輸出は価値で成長、量は横ばいにとどまった

EU exports demonstrated strong value growth, rising from €13.0 billion in 2015 to €17.3 billion in 2025. However, the corresponding trade volume contracted from 6.3 million tonnes to 6.0 million tonnes. The average export price per tonne rose from €2,074 to €2,868, a 38.3% increase. This pattern suggests that EU exporters have successfully moved into higher-value segments or capitalized on global price increases for meat products.

Source: General Overview – Trade

1.2. 輸入も同様に価格主導の成長を遂げた

Imports followed a similar trend. Their value increased from €4.8 billion to €6.6 billion, while volume fell from 1.24 million tonnes to 1.19 million tonnes. The average import price spiked by 44.4%, from €3,851/t to €5,560/t. This indicates that EU importers faced higher costs for sourcing meat from third countries, which may reflect both global supply constraints and shifts in the mix of imported products.

Source: General Overview – Trade

2. グローバルなサプライチェーンの再編成とパートナーの多角化

The EU's trading partners for meat products underwent significant changes over the decade. While traditional partners like the United Kingdom remained central, trade with newer or previously less significant partners saw dramatic growth. This diversification is reflected in a decrease in the concentration indices (HHI) for both exports and imports, indicating a more balanced trade distribution.

2.1. 主要輸出先のシフト：英国は安定、中国とフィリピンへ急成長

The United Kingdom remains the EU's largest export destination, with value increasing from €4.8 billion to €5.7 billion. However, the most notable growth was seen in exports to the Philippines (+217.4%) and the Republic of Korea (+65.9%). Exports to China also grew modestly (+14.2%), though from a high base. In contrast, exports to Hong Kong and Japan declined. This shift reflects evolving demand patterns in Asia and Africa.

上位のEU輸出先 (2025年における価値)

Source: General Overview – Top Partners

2.2. 輸入元の急速な変化：ウクライナからの輸入が急伸

On the import side, Brazil and the United Kingdom remain key suppliers, with their trade values growing by 21.2% and 20.3% respectively. The most dramatic change was the surge in imports from Ukraine, which skyrocketed by 601.8%, rising from €65 million in 2015 to €459 million in 2025. Imports from Argentina (+88.4%) and Uruguay (+64.1%) also grew robustly. This surge from Ukraine likely reflects both pre-war trade agreements and the redirection of agricultural flows following the conflict.

上位のEU輸入元 (2025年における価値)

Source: General Overview – Top Partners

2.3. 貿易集中度の低下が示す分散化

The diversification is quantified by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The HHI for EU export values decreased from 1,713 in 2015 to 1,380 in 2025, a 19.4% drop. Similarly, the import HHI fell by 14.8%, from 1,716 to 1,462. An HHI below 2,500 is generally considered a sign of a competitive, non-concentrated market. This trend indicates reduced dependency on any single partner and potentially lower systemic risk.

Source: Market Structure – Concentration HHI

3. 生産基盤の強化と加盟国間の専門化

Underpinning the EU's robust export performance is a substantial expansion in its domestic meat production. Both production volume and value grew significantly, outpacing the growth in exports. Furthermore, analysis of production specialization reveals a clear geographic pattern within the EU, with certain member states demonstrating high comparative advantage in meat production for the global market.

3.1. EUの肉類生産は量と価値の両面で拡大

EU production of CN 02 products saw remarkable growth. Production volume (in kilograms) increased by 45.3%, from 35.5 billion kg in 2015 to 51.6 billion kg in 2025. The value of production more than doubled (+113.4%), rising from €75.4 billion to €160.9 billion. This demonstrates a strong and growing domestic industrial base capable of supporting increased export ambitions.

Source: Market Structure – Production Volumes

3.2. 加盟国間で明らかな生産の専門化が進行

The production base is not uniform across the EU. Denmark, Poland, Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands exhibit the highest relative comparative advantage (RSCA > 0) in meat production, indicating high specialization. These countries likely drive a significant portion of the EU's exports. Conversely, countries like Malta, Sweden, Czechia, Finland, and Slovakia have low or negative RSCA scores, suggesting they are less specialized in this sector.

最も専門化された加盟国 (2025年 RSCA順)

Source: Market Structure – Specialisation

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's meat trade with the world transformed significantly. The most striking feature was the decoupling of trade value from trade volume, with substantial price inflation driving monetary growth. This occurred against a backdrop of strategic diversification of trade partners, which reduced dependency risks, as evidenced by falling concentration indices. Major shifts included the surge in imports from Ukraine and the rapid growth of exports to Southeast Asian markets. This trade performance was supported by a powerful expansion of the EU's own meat production capacity, particularly in specialized member states in Northern and Western Europe. Looking forward, the sector's resilience will depend on its ability to manage price volatility, maintain diversified supply chains, and continue leveraging the specialized productive strengths within the EU.