Market evolution: Rape and mustard oil (CN 151491) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of EU customs code 151491, which covers crude high erucic acid rape or colza oil (with an erucic acid content ≥ 2%) and mustard oil. This niche oilseed product is used primarily for industrial and technical applications, distinguishing it from the low-erucic acid rapeseed oil used in food. The analysis covers the period 2015–2025 and draws on EU trade data with non-EU countries. Over this decade, the EU market for this product underwent a dramatic structural transformation: the bloc shifted from being a net exporter to becoming a significant net importer, with major reconfigurations of supply chains, trade partners, and industrial specialisation patterns.
From Net Exporter to Net Importer: A Decade of Structural Reversal
The collapse of EU exports
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the near-total evaporation of EU exports of crude high erucic acid rapeseed oil. In 2015, the EU exported 39,995 tonnes valued at approximately €29.5 million (General Overview). By 2025, volumes had fallen to just 1,810 tonnes (−95.5%) and value to €3.3 million (−89.0%). While unit export prices rose significantly — from €737/t to €1,799/t (+144.1%) — this was insufficient to compensate for the collapse in volumes. The sharp price increase likely reflects the shrinking of export supply, with only higher-value or specialty shipments remaining.
The surge in imports
Import flows moved in the opposite direction. EU imports rose from 18,244 tonnes (€22.8 million) in 2015 to 64,702 tonnes (€68.8 million) in 2025, representing increases of +254.6% in volume and +202.3% in value. Notably, import prices declined by 14.8% over the period (from €1,248/t to €1,064/t), suggesting increased supply competition among exporting countries and possible downward pressure from new, lower-cost suppliers.
A widening trade deficit
The combined effect of collapsing exports and surging imports reversed the EU's trade balance entirely. In 2015, the EU enjoyed a modest trade surplus of €6.7 million; by 2025, this had become a deficit of €65.6 million — a swing of over €72 million. This structural shift is reflected in the net import reliance indicator, which moved from a slightly negative value in 2015 to approximately −3.1% in 2025 (a negative value indicating import dependence).
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 29.5 | 3.3 | −89.0% |
| Export volume (kt) | 40.0 | 1.8 | −95.5% |
| Import value (€M) | 22.8 | 68.8 | +202.3% |
| Import volume (kt) | 18.2 | 64.7 | +254.6% |
| Trade balance (€M) | +6.7 | −65.6 | −1,077% |
| Export price (€/t) | 737 | 1,799 | +144.1% |
| Import price (€/t) | 1,248 | 1,064 | −14.8% |
Source: General Overview
Geographic Reconfiguration: New Supply Chains and Shifting Demand
The Ukraine–Canada axis replaces traditional EU suppliers
The import side reveals a profound geographic reconfiguration. In 2015, the United Kingdom was by far the dominant supplier to the EU, providing €22.3 million in imports — virtually the entire import bill (top partners). By 2025, UK imports had fallen to €6.9 million (−69%), and two new dominant suppliers had emerged:
- Ukraine: from €323K in 2015 to €40.4M in 2025 (+12,403%), making it the single largest external supplier. Ukraine's rise reflects its strong rapeseed production capacity, proximity to the EU, and trade facilitation measures (including the EU–Ukraine DCFTA and wartime trade liberalisation).
- Canada: from a negligible €1,470 to €20.8M (+1,411,544%), a dramatic entry reflecting Canada's position as a major global rapeseed producer.
- United Arab Emirates: similarly surged from €723 to €11.7M, possibly reflecting re-export or intermediary trade flows.
The concentration HHI for imports fell sharply from 9,592 to 4,453 (−53.6%), confirming a shift from a highly concentrated supply base (dominated by the UK) to a more diversified one.
Divergent trajectories in EU export destinations
On the export side, the EU's traditional markets largely disappeared:
| Destination | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 25.1 | ~0 | −100.0% |
| Norway | 2.8 | 0.08 | −97.2% |
| United Kingdom | 1.0 | 0.2 | −77.3% |
| Chile | 0.001 | 27.6 | +2,971,943% |
| Japan | 0.00005 | 2.1 | +4,220,260% |
Source: top partners
The near-total loss of the Indian market (which accounted for €25.1M of EU exports in 2015) is the single most important factor in the export collapse. India's own rapeseed production expansion and potential import policy changes likely contributed. Meanwhile, Chile emerged as an unexpected major destination (€27.6M in 2025), and Japan also became a significant buyer, suggesting a reorientation towards South American and Asian niche markets.
Internal EU reallocation: the Netherlands as import hub
Within the EU, the Netherlands emerged as the dominant import gateway, rising from €2.6M in 2015 to €66.7M in 2025 — absorbing nearly all EU imports by value (top reporters). Germany, previously the leading importer (€19.2M in 2015), saw its imports collapse to €903K (−95.3%). This suggests a consolidation of trade flows through Rotterdam-based logistics and trading houses. On the export side, France experienced the largest decline (from €22.8M to €673K, −97.1%), while Germany's exports actually grew (from €844K to €1.7M, +103%).
Industrial Structure, Production Growth, and Market Volatility
EU production expanded despite trade deficit
Despite the growing import dependence, EU domestic production of crude high erucic acid rapeseed oil increased substantially. Production volumes rose from 3.6 billion kg in 2015 to 5.7 billion kg in 2025 (+59%), while production value grew from €2.1 billion to €3.5 billion (+67.4%) (production volumes). This indicates that the EU's own industrial base for this product grew, but that demand — likely from the oleochemical and technical sectors — grew even faster, necessitating larger imports. The trade intensity rose from 16.1% to 19.4%, confirming the economy's increasing integration into global trade for this product.
Specialisation remains concentrated in a few Member States
The EU's production of this niche oil is geographically concentrated. In 2025, France (RSCA: 0.74, RCA: 6.69) and Lithuania (RSCA: 0.74, RCA: 6.64) were by far the most specialised producers (specialisation), together accounting for over 56% of EU production. Belgium also maintained meaningful specialisation (RSCA: 0.20). By contrast, large agricultural economies like Poland, Spain, and Czechia showed minimal specialisation in this product, consistent with their orientation toward low-erucic acid rapeseed varieties for food use.
Supply shocks and price volatility
The period was marked by significant price volatility, particularly for import flows from Ukraine and export flows to China (supply shocks):
- Ukraine (imports, 2020): An import price shock with an abnormality score of 33.0 and a +513.8% price shift, representing 17.2% of import value. This likely reflects the early COVID-19 pandemic disruptions combined with Black Sea logistics challenges.
- China (exports, 2019): An export price shock with an abnormality of 51.5 and a +949.8% price shift, capturing 14.6% of export value. This extreme spike suggests a sudden, large-volume transaction or a major supply disruption in the Chinese market.
Coefficient of variation analysis shows that import flows from Ukraine (CV: 3.08) and Canada (CV: 2.65) were among the most volatile, while the UK (CV: 1.08) was relatively stable. On the export side, Morocco (CV: 2.42), the United States (CV: 2.35), and Mexico (CV: 2.23) showed high volatility.
Segment shift: from technical to non-technical grades
The product segment breakdown reveals a dramatic structural shift between the two sub-categories:
- CN 15149110 (for technical/industrial uses): imports fell from 15,089 tonnes (€19.4M) in 2015 to just 556 tonnes (€831K) in 2025.
- CN 15149190 (other, excl. technical): imports surged from 3,155 tonnes (€3.3M) to 64,146 tonnes (€68.0M).
This suggests that the EU's import demand has shifted decisively toward non-technical-grade crude oil — potentially for further refining or blending — while technical-grade imports have virtually ceased. This may reflect changes in industrial applications, processing capacity within the EU, or the availability of refined alternatives.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for crude high erucic acid rapeseed and mustard oil underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc moved from a modest net exporter to a substantial net importer, with the trade deficit widening to €65.6 million. This shift was driven by the near-total loss of traditional export markets (especially India) and a surge in imports from new suppliers, principally Ukraine and Canada. The Netherlands consolidated its role as the EU's primary import gateway, while production specialisation remained concentrated in France and Lithuania. Despite a 59% increase in domestic production, demand growth outpaced supply. The market also experienced notable price shocks, particularly related to Ukraine in 2020. Looking ahead, the EU's growing dependence on external supply for this niche industrial oil — coupled with geopolitical risks associated with key suppliers like Ukraine — warrants attention from both trade and industrial policy perspectives.