Market evolution: Canola oil (CN 151419) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 151419 — refined (non-crude) low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions — for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers two sub-segments: food-grade refined oil (CN 15141990) and oil for technical or industrial uses (CN 15141910). The EU is a major global producer and net exporter of canola oil, and the decade under review saw substantial growth in trade values, a dramatic commodity price spike in 2021–2022, and a notable diversification of the EU's import supply base. The following three sections explore these dynamics in turn.

1. A Decade of Growth Punctuated by a Historic Price Spike

1.1 EU exports more than doubled in value while import needs grew even faster

Over the full 2015–2025 period, EU extra-EU exports of CN 151419 rose from €143.4 million to €300.0 million (+109.2% in value), while export volumes grew from 163,841 t to 226,710 t (+38.4%). The faster growth in value relative to volume reflects a sustained rise in unit export prices, from €875/t to €1,323/t (+51.1%). Imports, starting from a much smaller base, expanded even more dramatically: value surged from €7.6 million to €51.1 million (+574.6%) and volumes from 8,109 t to 41,652 t (+413.7%).

Source: General overview

1.2 The 2021–2022 commodity super-cycle drove prices and export values to record levels

The most striking feature of the decade is the price surge that peaked in 2022. Export unit values reached €1,653/t in 2022 — nearly double the 2015 level — while export value hit €414.0 million, the highest in the series. Import prices similarly peaked at €1,697/t in 2022. This was part of the broader global agri-commodity price rally triggered by supply-chain disruptions, the energy crisis, and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, all of which severely affected oilseed markets. Shock detection confirms significant price anomalies centred on 2021–2022 for key trade partners (see Section 3). By 2023–2024, both export and import prices had partially corrected (to €1,211–1,323/t for exports), though they remained well above pre-2020 levels.

1.3 The food-grade segment dominates trade, but the industrial sub-segment shows episodic volatility

The overwhelming majority of trade falls under CN 15141990 (food-grade refined oil). In 2025, this sub-segment accounted for 225,470 t of exports (€297.5 million) and 22,785 t of imports (€29.2 million). The technical/industrial sub-segment (CN 15141910) is far smaller but highly volatile: its export volume jumped from 1,219 t in 2015 to 68,668 t in 2021 before collapsing back to 1,239 t in 2025. On the import side, the industrial sub-segment surged to 18,866 t in 2025 — a sharp increase from 2,417 t in 2024 — suggesting a possible structural shift in EU demand for industrial-grade canola oil.

Source: Product segment breakdown

2. Shifting Geography: Import Diversification and Reorientation of Export Flows

2.1 The UK remains the EU's largest single trade partner in both directions

The United Kingdom is by far the most important partner for EU canola oil trade. In 2025, exports to the UK stood at €106.8 million (35.6% of total extra-EU export value), up from €59.5 million in 2015. On the import side, the UK supplied €12.1 million in 2025, up from €4.6 million. The UK's dominant role reflects both geographic proximity and the deeply integrated supply chains in edible oils that persisted after Brexit.

Source: Top partners

2.2 Israel emerged as the EU's fastest-growing export market

Among the EU's top export destinations, Israel showed the strongest growth: from €22.5 million in 2015 to €87.0 million in 2025 (+285.9%), peaking at €104.4 million in 2023. This likely reflects Israel's limited domestic oilseed production and its reliance on EU-refined canola oil as a food-grade supply. Other non-European markets — the United States (+146.7%), Iceland (+195.3%), and Switzerland (+110.5%) — also expanded substantially, signalling a gradual broadening of the EU's export base beyond its traditional European neighbourhood.

2.3 Import sources diversified sharply, reducing dependency on any single supplier

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 4,030 in 2015 to 1,723 in 2025 (−57.2%), indicating a major shift from a concentrated import structure to a significantly more diversified one. In 2015, the UK alone dominated EU imports of refined canola oil. By 2025, Canada had risen from negligible flows (€10,753) to €12.4 million, Belarus to €9.0 million, and Ukraine to €2.3 million. New or previously minor suppliers — including the United Arab Emirates (which peaked at €8.4 million in an intermediate year) — entered the picture. This diversification partly reflects the EU's deliberate efforts to secure alternative oilseed supply chains, particularly after the disruption caused by the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

By contrast, export concentration remained broadly stable (HHI of 2,493 → 2,474, −0.8%), as the UK, Norway, and Israel continued to absorb the lion's share of EU shipments.

2.4 Within the EU, the Netherlands and Estonia emerged as rising import hubs

On the EU reporter side, import flows shifted significantly. The Netherlands rose from €15,387 in 2015 imports to €5.9 million in 2025 (peaking at €20.7 million in 2022), while Estonia surged from €66,402 to €11.7 million — likely reflecting re-routing of flows from Eastern European and post-Soviet suppliers. Spain similarly rose from just €12,085 to €17.1 million. Conversely, Belgium's import share collapsed from €0.9 million to €121,209 (−85.8%), having peaked at €40.6 million in an intermediate year. On the export side, Germany remained the largest EU exporter (€61.8 million in 2025), followed by Belgium (€41.4 million) and the Netherlands (€37.4 million), while Estonia's exports surged to €47.2 million (+1,034% from 2015).

3. Structural Resilience: The EU's Net-Exporter Position and Growing Export Orientation

3.1 The EU has consistently maintained a positive trade balance in refined canola oil

Throughout the entire 2015–2025 period, the EU was a net exporter of CN 151419. The net import reliance was negative in every year, ranging from −5.6% in 2015 to −10.7% in 2025, with a trough of −11.8% in 2022. The only year that approached near-balance was 2018–2019, when the indicator briefly rose to +4.7%, suggesting a temporary narrowing of the export surplus — likely linked to rising import volumes from new Eastern European suppliers. Since then, the net-exporter position has deepened again.

3.2 EU production of refined canola oil grew in both volume and value

EU production of CN 151419 increased from 3.06 billion kg (2015) to 3.59 billion kg (2025) in quantity (+17.4%), while production value rose from €1.75 billion to €2.99 billion (+71.2%). The peak in both volume (4.67 billion kg) and value (€4.04 billion) was reached in 2022, consistent with the global price spike. The faster growth of value relative to quantity confirms that producers benefited from the commodity price rally. In 2025, with production at 3.59 billion kg but extra-EU exports at only 226,710 t, the vast majority of EU canola oil output continues to serve intra-EU and domestic consumption.

3.3 Export propensity and trade intensity both increased, indicating growing outward orientation

The export propensity (extra-EU exports as a share of EU production) rose from 6.6% in 2015 to 10.9% in 2025 (+66.4%), peaking at 12.0% in 2023. Trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production plus imports) followed a similar trajectory, rising from 7.7% to 12.0%. The salience analysis identifies export propensity as the more prominent structural indicator (score: 105.5 vs. 93.6 for trade intensity). This growing outward orientation suggests that EU refiners are increasingly targeting global markets — particularly in the Middle East (Israel, UAE), North America, and the EFTA region — rather than relying solely on intra-EU demand.

3.4 Specialisation is concentrated in Northern and Eastern EU member states

The revealed comparative advantage analysis (2025) shows that Estonia has by far the strongest specialisation in canola oil exports (RSCA: 0.73, RCA: 6.54), followed by Denmark (RSCA: 0.37) and Czechia (RSCA: 0.34). France, a major oilseed grower, shows moderate specialisation (RSCA: 0.31). At the other extreme, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, and Greece have near-zero or negative RSCA scores, indicating that canola oil plays a negligible role in their export profiles. This geographic concentration reflects the alignment of rapeseed cultivation areas (Northern/Eastern Europe) with refining and export capacity.

3.5 Supply shocks were episodic and centred on Eastern European import channels

The shock detection analysis identifies three significant price shocks:

The Russia and Belarus import-price shocks in 2021 preceded the broader 2022 commodity rally and likely reflect the tightening of supply from these origins even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Norway export-price shock in 2022 — with an abnormality of 21.5 and a 30.9% value share — is consistent with the EU's overall price spike being transmitted to its largest non-EU European customer. In terms of import volatility, Canada stands out with the highest coefficient of variation (3.26), reflecting its intermittent and lumpy supply pattern, while the UK and Russia show more moderate volatility (CV of 0.75 and 0.63 respectively).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's refined canola oil trade expanded significantly in value, driven by both volume growth and — especially — the dramatic price spike of 2021–2022. The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter, with extra-EU exports more than doubling in value and export propensity rising to nearly 11% of production. At the same time, imports grew even faster in proportional terms, albeit from a much smaller base, and diversified markedly: the import HHI fell by 57%, reflecting the arrival of new suppliers (Canada, UAE, Ukraine) alongside traditional ones (UK, Serbia). The 2022 price shock, while severe, proved temporary, and by 2025 both prices and trade volumes had partially normalised — though they remained well above pre-2020 levels. Looking ahead, the EU's strong production base and expanding export orientation position it well as a global supplier of refined canola oil, though continued vigilance over import-channel volatility — particularly from politically sensitive origins in Eastern Europe — remains warranted.