Market evolution: Pork bellies (CN 021012) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of intra- and extra-EU trade in salted, brined, dried, or smoked pork bellies (customs code 021012) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis reveals a market characterized by strong export growth driven by rising unit values rather than volume increases, a highly concentrated and resilient export structure dominated by a few key members, and a minimal but volatile import side. Overall, the EU has strengthened its position as a net exporter of this product.

1. Export-Led Growth: Surging Values Despite Stable Volumes

EU exports of pork bellies to non-EU countries have experienced significant growth in value, underpinned by a dramatic increase in unit prices rather than a rise in export volumes.

• Substantial value appreciation. Total export value rose by 44.6%, from €76.9 million in 2015 to €111.2 million in 2025. This growth occurred even as total export quantity fell by 11.4%, from 20,374 tonnes to 18,054 tonnes over the same period General Overview.

• The primary driver: escalating unit prices. The average export price surged by 63.2%, from €3,773 per tonne in 2015 to €6,159 per tonne in 2025. This price increase is the fundamental engine of export revenue growth. The price peak was recorded in 2024 at €6,408 per tonne General Overview.

• Segment-level performance. The growth was led by the "dried or smoked" segment (CN 02101219), which became the dominant export category by value. Its value grew from €42.6 million to €86.0 million, with its unit price rising from €4,830 to €6,492 per tonne. The "salted or in brine" segment (CN 02101211) saw its volume nearly halve, but its value only fell by 29% thanks to a 84% price increase Product Segment Breakdown.

Table 1: EU Export Evolution for CN 021012 (2015 vs. 2025)

2. Market Geography: Persistent UK Dominance and Emerging Trade Links

The geographic structure of EU exports is highly concentrated, with the United Kingdom as the indispensable cornerstone, while imports are negligible and stem from a handful of neighboring states.

• The United Kingdom remains the primary destination. The UK consistently absorbed the majority of EU exports, with its share of export value starting at 74.4% in 2015 and ending at 65.3% in 2025. The value of exports to the UK grew by 27% to €72.6 million, making it by far the largest single partner Top Partners by Value.

• Diversification towards Asian and emerging markets. Beyond the UK, exports to Singapore grew massively (+320%) to €7.1 million, and to Serbia surged (+6,766%) to €4.6 million. Conversely, exports to Japan collapsed from €6.9 million to €1.0 million, indicating market volatility or a shift in trade flows Top Partners by Value.

• Imports are a marginal and volatile activity. The EU is a strong net exporter of pork bellies, with imports representing a tiny fraction of trade. Total import value was only €2.4 million in 2025, with 88% sourced from the United Kingdom. This reflects the UK's post-Brexit status as a non-EU country. Import values have been highly volatile, as seen in the high coefficient of variation for partners like Norway (2.06) and the United States (1.99) Volatility & Shocks.

3. Production Growth and Market Resilience

The EU's strong export performance is supported by a growing domestic production base and a market structure that demonstrates both specialization and low vulnerability to import dependency.

• Robust increase in domestic production. EU production of pork bellies grew substantially over the period. Output volume increased by 35.8%, from 382,307 tonnes in 2015 to 519,000 tonnes in 2025. Production value more than doubled (+136.7%) to €3.29 billion, mirroring the export price trends Production Quantity.

• Increasing specialization among key exporters. Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for 2025 shows that the Netherlands (RCA 1.87), Italy (2.06), Denmark (2.08), Austria (2.13), and Croatia (3.96) are the most specialized EU exporters in this product. This indicates a consolidation of production and export activity in these member states Most Specialised Reporters.

• High export propensity and low import vulnerability. The EU's export propensity for pork bellies is high, rising to 3.47% in 2025. Consequently, the net import reliance has been consistently negative (around -3.6% in 2025), confirming the EU's structural position as a net supplier to the global market.

Conclusion

From 2015 to 2025, the EU's trade in pork bellies (CN 021012) transformed into a high-value, export-oriented market. Growth was price-driven rather than volume-led, significantly increasing the revenue from a slightly smaller quantity of exports. This performance was underpinned by expanding domestic production and a concentrated, specialized export base. While trade remains heavily reliant on the United Kingdom, diversification towards other partners is evident. The market exhibits a classic structure of a competitive, specialized producer with a strong net export position and low vulnerability to imports.