Market evolution: Cured meat (CN 021099) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of European Union (EU) market for cured meat products classified under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 021099 over the period 2015–2025. This residual category encompasses salted, dried, or smoked meat and edible offal from animals other than bovine, swine, primates, and specific marine mammals (e.g., poultry, sheep, goats, horses), as well as edible flours and meals of meat. The analysis reveals a market characterized by a widening structural deficit, significant shifts in trade partners, and dramatic price volatility, underlining the segment's sensitivity to global supply chains and shocks.

The Structural Widening of the EU's Trade Deficit

The core trend for CN 021099 is a persistent and expanding trade deficit. While the EU is a major importer, its export capacity in this niche segment has collapsed over the decade.

Imports Remain High While Exports Collapse

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's import value for CN 021099 remained relatively stable, fluctuating around €500 million annually, with a slight overall decrease of -0.8%. However, import volumes declined by -32.2%, indicating a significant rise in unit prices. In stark contrast, exports experienced a dramatic contraction. Export value fell by 61.0% to €33.6 million, and volumes plummeted by 78.3% to just 8,284 tonnes. This asymmetry expanded the annual trade deficit from -€446 million in 2015 to -€495 million in 2025, a deterioration of 10.8%. (General Overview)

Shifting Partnerships: Brazil's Dominance and Thailand's Rise

The geographic concentration of EU imports shifted notably. Brazil consistently remained the top supplier, though its import value decreased by 17.6% over the period. The most significant change was the rise of Thailand, which overtook Brazil briefly and saw its export value to the EU surge by 39.5% to €253 million by 2025, solidifying its position as a primary source. Conversely, trade with the United Kingdom collapsed across both sides of the Channel post-2020. UK imports from the EU fell by 93.1%, while the UK's share of EU imports also declined sharply, likely reflecting Brexit-related disruptions. (Top partners by value)

Structural Shifts in EU Production and Specialization

The trade data suggests a reorientation of internal EU production toward serving the domestic market, with increasing specialization in key member states.

Production Stagnates While Value Erodes

EU production volumes for this product segment (measured in kg) remained stable at around 240 million kg annually. However, the production value decreased from €666.9 million to €564 million (-15.4%). This divergence, coupled with rising import prices, indicates that EU producers may be facing increased cost pressures or are focusing on higher-volume, potentially lower-margin segments. (Production volumes)

The Netherlands as the Dominant Hub

The market structure within the EU is highly concentrated. The Netherlands is the unrivaled central node, acting as both the primary importer (€493.5 million in 2025, up 24.7% from 2015) and the leading exporter (€9.7 million in 2025). Its Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) score of 0.71 in 2025 confirms a very strong specialization in this trade. Other major EU importer states like Germany, Belgium, and Ireland saw their import values decline sharply, reinforcing the Dutch dominance in intra-EU logistics and re-export. (Top reporters by value)

Price Shocks and Growing Vulnerability

The decade was marked by significant price volatility and isolated supply shocks, which influenced the overall trade balance and highlighted the EU's increasing dependency on a few key suppliers.

Pronounced Price Inflation and Extreme Volatility

Unit prices for both imports and exports rose substantially. The average import price increased by 46.4% to €3,478 per tonne, while the export price rose by 80.0% to €4,058 per tonne. This general inflation was punctuated by extreme volatility in certain partner relationships. For example, import prices from Ukraine exhibited a high coefficient of variation (CV=1.01), and export prices to Georgia were remarkably volatile (CV=1.65). (Volatility bars)

Specific Supply and Price Shocks

The data flags several key shock events:

• A major price shock occurred in 2019 for EU exports to Thailand, where the average price surged by over 2,000%. This could be linked to sudden demand or a regulatory change affecting a niche product category.
• In 2022, prices for imports from both Brazil and Thailand spiked by over 50% (abnormality scores of 28.9 and 8.1 respectively). This aligns with a period of global energy and feed cost inflation, as well as disruptions from avian influenza outbreaks affecting poultry supply chains, which are a key component of this product group. These shocks underscore the market's sensitivity to global commodity cycles and disease-related trade restrictions. (Top shock events)

Rising Import Reliance for a Niche Segment

The EU's net import reliance—the share of domestic consumption met by imports—increased from 39.5% to 42.2% over the period. Concurrently, trade intensity (total trade relative to production) and export propensity (exports relative to production) also rose slightly. This indicates that while the EU's absolute export volume has collapsed, the sector is becoming more integrated into global trade flows, albeit as a growing net importer of increasingly expensive products. (Net import reliance)

Conclusion

The EU market for cured meats under CN 021099 has undergone a significant transformation between 2015 and 2025. It is characterized by a deepening trade deficit, driven not by burgeoning imports but by a collapse in export competitiveness, particularly in the wake of Brexit. The market has consolidated around a dominant hub (the Netherlands) and key suppliers (Brazil, Thailand). This structure has proven vulnerable to external shocks, leading to pronounced price inflation that has not been offset by increased domestic production value. The rising net import reliance highlights a growing strategic dependency on external suppliers for this niche, yet economically and culturally relevant, segment of the EU meat market. Future stability will depend on supply diversification, managing production costs, and monitoring the global disease and trade policy landscape affecting poultry and small offal.