Market evolution: Smoked ham with bone (CN 021011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in hams, shoulders and cuts thereof of swine, salted, in brine, dried or smoked, with bone in (Combined Nomenclature code 021011) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers a broad heading that bundles several sub-categories, from traditional dry-cured hams to salted-in-brine cuts.

Over the decade, the EU's external trade in this product underwent significant structural transformation. Export value rose by 62.3% (from €54.7 million to €88.8 million), while export volumes grew by a far more modest 4.9% (from 5,963 to 6,254 tonnes). Meanwhile, imports declined in both value (–11.5%) and volume (–4.2%). EU production of this product category grew from approximately 957 million kg to 1,160 million kg in quantity (+21.3%) and from €4.49 billion to €6.74 billion in value (+50.1%). The EU remained a consistent net exporter throughout the period, with the trade balance widening from €48.2 million to €83.1 million (+72.3%).

Three principal dynamics define the period: a premiumisation of EU exports driven by price increases rather than volume growth; the extraordinary rise of China as an export destination; and a structural realignment of trade partners and EU-internal specialisation.

1. Premiumisation: Rising prices, not volumes, fuelled the export boom

Export values surged while volumes stagnated

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the disconnect between export value and quantity. While export value grew by 62.3%, export quantity grew by only 4.9%. The price of EU exports rose from approximately €9,173/t in 2015 to €14,193/t in 2025, a 54.7% increase. In the peak year, export prices reached as high as €14,193/t — the maximum of the entire series. This points to a clear premiumisation dynamic: the EU is selling fewer tonnes at much higher unit prices.

Dried and smoked hams dominate the export product mix

The product segment breakdown reveals that dried or smoked domestic swine hams (CN 02101131) are by far the most important export category, both by volume and by value. In 2025, this sub-product accounted for 3,342 tonnes (53.4% of total export volume) and €49.3 million (55.6% of export value).

Notably, the highest per-unit prices in 2025 were achieved in the dried/smoked shoulders sub-segment (€15,771/t), suggesting particularly strong premium positioning for this niche. Export prices for the main sub-product (02101131) rose from €10,654/t in 2015 to €14,761/t in 2025, a 38.5% increase.

Imports tell a contrasting story of declining volumes and flat prices

On the import side, the EU's import price declined from €3,706/t to €3,423/t (–7.6%), while import volumes fell from 1,749 to 1,676 tonnes (–4.2%). This means EU imports are priced at roughly one-quarter of EU export prices, reflecting the fundamentally different nature of import flows — likely lower-value or bulk products from different production systems. The import segment is dominated by salted or in-brine products (CN 02101111), which accounted for 1,540 tonnes (91.9%) and €4.35 million (75.8%) of imports in 2025.

2. China's meteoric rise transformed EU export geography

The Chinese market became the EU's top export destination

The single most dramatic structural shift in EU smoked-ham trade was the explosive growth of exports to China. From a mere €258,748 in 2015, exports to China surged to €19,487,395 in 2025 — an increase of 7,431%. By value, China became the EU's largest non-EU export market, overtaking the United Kingdom, which had been the traditional dominant destination.

A price shock in exports to China was detected in 2017, with an abnormality score of 38.0 and a shift of 179.5%. This likely corresponds to the period when China — facing its own domestic pork supply constraints (notably linked to African Swine Fever from 2018 onwards) — dramatically increased purchases of European pork products. By the most recent year, China represented a value share of 17.9% of all EU exports, making it the single most important non-EU market.

The United Kingdom's relative decline reshaped the export map

The United Kingdom was the EU's largest export partner in 2015 at €12.6 million. By 2025, UK-bound exports had fallen to €7.1 million (–43.9%), representing a minimum of €7.0 million in the series. While the UK remained the second-largest destination by value, its share was substantially eroded. This likely reflects both post-Brexit trade friction and the broader reorientation of EU pork trade toward Asian markets.

Concurrently, several newer or previously minor markets grew significantly:

• Ukraine grew from €163,000 to €4.7 million (+2,780%), making it a top-seven destination.
• Mexico grew from €3.3 million to €5.4 million (+64.1%).
• United States grew from €5.0 million to €12.9 million (+158.5%).

Trade volatility differs sharply between old and new markets

The coefficient of variation (CV) of export values reveals the relative stability of different partnerships:

China's high CV (0.91) reflects its rapid trajectory from negligible to dominant — a market that was essentially built within the period under review. By contrast, Japan (0.25) represents the most predictable long-term partnership for EU smoked-ham exporters.

3. Spain consolidated its dominance while trade concentration shifted

Spain became the undisputed EU export champion

The breakdown by reporting Member State reveals a dramatic concentration of EU exports in Spain. Spanish exports to non-EU countries grew from €38.3 million in 2015 to €71.8 million in 2025, an increase of 87.2%. By the end of the period, Spain accounted for approximately 80.8% of total EU export value.

Spain's dominance is underpinned by its exceptional specialisation. In 2025, Spain recorded a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.81 and an RCA of 9.32, far above any other Member State. This reflects Spain's deep-rooted tradition in dry-cured ham production (jamón serrano, jamón ibérico) and its well-established export infrastructure, particularly toward Asian markets.

Germany's collapse is notable: exports fell from €2.6 million to just €96,000 (–96.3%), effectively removing Germany from the map of EU smoked-ham exporters.

Production grew substantially, driven by rising domestic demand and exports

EU production volumes increased from 957 million kg in 2015 to 1,160 million kg in 2025 (+21.3%), while production value rose from €4.49 billion to €6.74 billion (+50.1%). Again, value growth outpaced volume growth, indicating that EU producers benefited from higher prices both domestically and for export.

The peak production year saw 1,777 million kg produced, suggesting a production cycle with some year-to-year fluctuation.

Import concentration increased as Norway's role collapsed

On the import side, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 4,929 to 6,514 (+32.2%), indicating significantly more concentrated sourcing. This was driven by the collapse of imports from Norway, which fell from €3.2 million in 2015 to just €523,000 in 2025 (–83.9%). Meanwhile, the United Kingdom consolidated its position as the dominant import source, with imports rising from €3.2 million to €4.6 million (+43.5%). By 2025, the UK alone supplied approximately 79.6% of EU import value.

The EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout the period (ranging from –0.3% to –1.4%), confirming that the EU is structurally a net exporter of this product. The negative value deepened over time (from –0.63% to –1.15%), indicating that the EU's export surplus in smoked ham with bone has widened. The export propensity nearly doubled, rising from 0.67% to 1.20%, while trade intensity similarly increased from 0.71% to 1.27%. These trends confirm that the EU's smoked-ham sector became progressively more outward-oriented over the decade.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period witnessed a fundamental transformation of EU trade in smoked ham with bone. The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter, but the nature of that export role changed markedly: rather than shipping larger volumes, EU producers — and Spain above all — captured significantly higher prices per tonne, reflecting a successful premiumisation strategy consistent with the global reputation of European dry-cured ham.

The most transformative single event was the rise of China as the EU's leading export destination, growing from a negligible €258,000 to nearly €19.5 million. This boom, linked in part to China's African Swine Fever crisis from 2018 onward, reshaped the geographic orientation of EU exports away from traditional European and transatlantic partners toward Asia. At the same time, the United Kingdom's importance as both an export destination and an import source evolved under the influence of Brexit-related trade dynamics.

Looking forward, the high concentration of both exports (in Spain and in a small number of destination markets) and imports (in the United Kingdom) presents both strengths and vulnerabilities. The EU's ability to sustain premium pricing will depend on continued brand differentiation, biosecurity, and the maintenance of trade access to key Asian and American markets where demand for high-quality European pork products remains robust.