Market evolution: Other uncoated paper and paperboard (CN 4805) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in customs code 4805 — a residual category encompassing uncoated paper and paperboard not elsewhere specified, including fluting paper, testliner (recycled liner board), and various other grades. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of these products, with exports growing substantially in both volume and value while imports remained comparatively stable. The period was marked by a dramatic commodity price cycle — a dip during the COVID-19 pandemic, a sharp spike in 2022, and a subsequent correction — as well as significant geopolitical disruptions that reshaped trade flows, most notably the collapse of imports from Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU domestic production of these paper grades expanded considerably, driven largely by demand for packaging-grade materials. The following sections explore these dynamics in detail.

General overview of CN 4805 trade

1. A Widening Trade Surplus Reflecting Structural Export Advantage

The EU's trade surplus in CN 4805 grew by over 50% between 2015 and 2025

The EU entered the period as a net exporter of uncoated paper and paperboard, and this position strengthened considerably over the decade. The trade balance rose from €1.28 billion in 2015 to €1.94 billion in 2025, an increase of 51.4%. At its peak in 2022, the surplus reached €2.47 billion, buoyed by elevated prices.

Export volumes expanded far more than import volumes

The most striking asymmetry lies in quantity growth. EU exports of CN 4805 grew by 42.7% in volume over the period, from 3.21 million tonnes to 4.59 million tonnes. By contrast, import volumes barely moved — rising a mere 0.6% from 827,000 tonnes to 832,000 tonnes. This divergence underscores the EU's role as a major production base for these paper grades, particularly for packaging-related products such as testliner and fluting paper.

Net import reliance deepened accordingly, moving from −4.3% in 2015 to −13.2% in 2025, confirming that the EU's self-sufficiency in this product category has strengthened over time.

Export diversification increased while import concentration edged higher

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports declined slightly from 663 to 627, indicating a broadening of destination markets. By contrast, import concentration rose from 2,035 to 2,151 — a moderate level reflecting a somewhat more concentrated sourcing structure, with Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Türkiye accounting for a growing share of EU imports.

2. A Dramatic Price Cycle and Geopolitical Reorientation of Trade Partners

Prices collapsed in 2020, surged in 2022, and have since partially corrected

The period was defined by an extraordinary price cycle. EU export unit values fell from €530/t in 2015 to a trough of €426/t in 2020 — a decline of nearly 20% driven by weakening demand during the pandemic. They then rebounded sharply, reaching a peak of €804/t in 2022, before correcting to €529/t by 2025, essentially returning to the starting level.

The 2022 spike reflected a global commodity price surge driven by energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and tight fibre markets following the pandemic. Notably, import prices in 2025 (€591/t) remain elevated relative to 2015 (€514/t), suggesting that EU importers face persistently higher costs for externally sourced uncoated paper and paperboard.

Shock analysis confirms that the most extreme price abnormality occurred in EU exports to the United States in 2022 (abnormality score of 22.4, a 59.7% price shift) and in imports from Türkiye in 2021 (abnormality score of 18.9, a 50.9% shift).

Russia collapsed as an import source; new suppliers emerged

One of the most dramatic shifts in partner composition was the near-total disappearance of Russian imports. EU imports from Russia fell from €73.0 million in 2015 to essentially zero by 2025 (just €75), a direct consequence of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In volume terms, this created a supply gap that was partially filled by other partners:

• Serbia surged from €4.4 million to €22.1 million (+404%)
• Norway roughly doubled from €23.3 million to €45.7 million (+96%)
• Türkiye grew from €28.4 million to €54.1 million (+90%)
• Switzerland increased from €107.5 million to €163.0 million (+52%)

However, Russia's exit was also partly offset by declining imports from other sources: Italy's share of EU imports fell sharply (−74.2% in value among EU reporters), and Ukraine, while still a supplier, saw its import values decline by 32% from 2015 to 2025.

Export destinations shifted towards North Africa and the Middle East

On the export side, the geographic orientation of EU exports evolved notably:

The most striking growth was in exports to China (+438%) and Morocco (+126%), while Algeria more than doubled. The United Kingdom remained the single largest export market by a wide margin, reflecting both geographic proximity and the post-Brexit regulatory environment. The decline in exports to Türkiye (−20.5%) is notable, though this partner remained the second-largest destination.

3. Packaging-Grade Papers Dominate Both Trade Flows and Production Growth

Testliner and fluting paper constitute the bulk of EU exports

The product segment breakdown reveals that packaging-grade papers overwhelmingly dominate EU exports of CN 4805. The three largest sub-segments by export volume in 2025 were:

These three categories alone accounted for over 75% of EU export volumes in 2025. Testliner (recycled liner board, ≤ 150 g/m²) was the standout performer, with volumes nearly doubling — consistent with the structural growth in e-commerce and corrugated packaging demand over the decade.

The same packaging grades dominate imports, though at much smaller scale

On the import side, the same packaging-related categories were also dominant, though at roughly one-fifth the export volumes:

The sharp decline in imports of semi-chemical fluting paper (−82%) and other fluting paper (−18%) suggests that EU domestic production increasingly covers internal demand for these grades. The near-total collapse of semi-chemical fluting imports aligns with the disappearance of Russian supply, as Russia was historically a significant producer of this grade.

EU domestic production expanded dramatically

EU production volumes surged by 88.1% in quantity (from 15.1 billion kg to 28.4 billion kg) and 147.5% in value (from €6.4 billion to €15.7 billion) over the period. This expansion was disproportionately concentrated among a few key specialised producers:

Germany alone accounted for nearly 40% of EU production value in 2025, and its exports reached €591 million. Poland emerged as a fast-growing exporter, with shipments rising 120% from €79 million to €174 million — reflecting the country's growing role as a packaging paper production hub in Central Europe. Spain also grew strongly (+71% to €342 million).

Trade intensity increased from 12.0% to 17.2%, while export propensity rose even faster, from 8.3% to 14.7% — indicating that the EU paper industry has become progressively more outward-looking in this product category.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in uncoated paper and paperboard (CN 4805) underwent a transformation characterised by three reinforcing trends: a deepening trade surplus driven by robust export growth in packaging-grade materials; a volatile but ultimately stabilising price environment shaped by the pandemic dip and the 2022 energy-driven spike; and a significant reorientation of trade partners prompted by geopolitical shocks, most importantly the collapse of Russian imports post-2022.

The EU's position as a net exporter is structurally sound, underpinned by strong domestic production capacity that expanded by nearly 90% in volume over the period. Packaging-grade products — testliner and fluting paper — are the engines of this growth, propelled by the sustained expansion of e-commerce and corrugated packaging demand. At the same time, the EU's vulnerability to import supply disruptions appears limited: the loss of Russian imports was absorbed without significant supply shortages, and new suppliers in Serbia, Norway, and Türkiye have partially filled the gap.

Looking ahead, the key risks relate to demand-side dynamics (the sustainability of packaging demand growth, potential substitution effects) and energy cost competitiveness for EU producers. The data suggests, however, that the EU's uncoated paper and paperboard sector is well-positioned to maintain its export orientation in the medium term.