Market evolution: Tissue paper base stock (CN 4803) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in tissue paper base stock (Combined Nomenclature code 4803) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The product category, encompassing materials for household and sanitary purposes like toilet tissue, facial tissue, and cellulose wadding, has undergone a significant structural shift. While EU production grew, the bloc's trade position transformed from being a net exporter to approaching net import dependency. This period was marked by a dramatic surge in import volumes, a pronounced geographical realignment of trade partners, and the impact of major macroeconomic shocks, particularly the 2022 energy crisis. The following sections detail these key dynamics.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The Dramatic Import-Led Shift in the EU's Trade Balance

The most defining trend of the 2015-2025 period is the inversion of the EU's trade balance in tissue paper base stock. The bloc, which began the period as a consistent net exporter, saw its position erode due to import growth that vastly outpaced export growth, culminating in a near-parity by the end of the period.

Import growth dramatically outpaced that of exports

EU imports of CN 4803 products underwent a remarkable expansion. By 2025, import value had increased by 136.8% (from €182.9 million to €433.2 million), and import volume had grown by 143.8% (from 151,419 tonnes to 369,112 tonnes) compared to 2015. This rate of expansion far exceeded that of EU exports, which saw value and volume increases of 37.9% (to €408.5 million) and 30.8% (to 289,269 tonnes) respectively over the same period. The min-max ranges in the data show this was not a steady linear climb but a period of significant volatility, with import volumes reaching a high of 369,112 tonnes in the final year.

The trade balance swung from a solid surplus to a marginal deficit

As a direct consequence of these divergent growth rates, the EU's trade balance reversed. In 2015, the bloc enjoyed a trade surplus of €113.4 million. By 2025, this had turned into a deficit of €24.7 million. The General Overview data shows the surplus peaked at €185.8 million before declining, indicating the reversal accelerated in the latter half of the period. This shift underscores a fundamental change in the region's supply dynamics.

Net import reliance moved sharply towards zero, indicating growing dependency

The metric for net import reliance (as a percentage of apparent consumption) confirms this structural shift. The EU's net import reliance moved from -7.3% in 2015 to -0.6% in 2025. This near-zero figure signifies that the EU's consumption is now almost entirely met by a combination of domestic production and imports, with exports roughly balancing out, eroding the earlier buffer of a consistent net surplus. The Autonomy & Vulnerability data highlights that this level of reliance reached its closest to zero in 2025.

2. A New Geographical Map: The Emergence of New Dominant Import Partners

The surge in EU imports was not distributed evenly across partner countries. The period witnessed a decisive geographical realignment, with traditional suppliers declining in importance while new suppliers from Southeast Europe and Asia rapidly emerged to dominate the import landscape.

Türkiye and Indonesia became the largest and fastest-growing import sources

The most striking developments were the rise of Türkiye and Indonesia. Imports from Türkiye grew by 204.4% in value (from €45.2 million to €137.4 million), making it the EU's top import partner by 2025. Even more dramatic was the growth from Indonesia, where imports surged by an extraordinary 5,364.1% (from €2.4 million to €129.1 million). This explosive growth positioned Indonesia as the second-largest import partner. In contrast, imports from the United Kingdom—the EU's largest partner at the start of the period—fell by 47.3% (from €36.1 million to €19.0 million).

Several traditional and regional partners saw declining import values

Beyond the UK, other partners experienced significant declines. Imports from the Russian Federation collapsed from €3.1 million to near zero (€52), a 100.0% decrease, likely linked to geopolitical sanctions following 2022. Imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina also fell by 56.2%. Conversely, some European partners like Ukraine (+664.4%) and Switzerland (+34.5%) saw growth, but their absolute values remained smaller than those from the new dominant suppliers.

EU export destinations remained more stable, with the UK retaining its top spot

In contrast to the import landscape, the EU's export markets showed greater continuity. The United Kingdom remained the premier export destination, with its share growing; EU exports to the UK increased by 58.4% (from €130.0 million to €206.0 million). The United States also grew in importance (+38.7%). Notably, exports to Ukraine and Israel saw substantial increases (225.4% and 652.8% respectively), indicating opportunistic growth into specific markets. A full comparison is available in the top partners by value data.

3. Market Stress and Resilience: Price Shocks and Evolving Concentration

The latter part of the decade was characterized by significant market stress, most notably the 2022 price shock. Despite this volatility and the changing trade flows, the EU's domestic production demonstrated resilience, and the market structure evolved with increasing concentration on both the import and export sides.

The 2022 energy crisis triggered severe price shocks for key partners

The data detects significant price volatility, with the most pronounced shocks occurring in 2022. This aligns with the European energy crisis that sharply increased production costs for energy-intensive products like paper.

• Exports to the United Kingdom experienced a price shock of 53.8% with an abnormality score of 172.1.
• Imports from Indonesia saw a 76.1% price increase with an abnormality of 105.9.
• Exports to Serbia were also hit by a 59.6% price hike.

These events, detailed in the Volatility & Shocks analysis, illustrate the sector's direct exposure to energy costs and global supply chain disruptions during this period.

EU production volumes were stable, but output value grew strongly due to inflation

Despite the import surge and trade shocks, EU domestic production (based on PRODCOM data) showed underlying stability. Production volume increased by only 6.0% (from 2.12 billion kg to 2.25 billion kg) from the first to the last period. However, production value grew by 46.3% (from €2.15 billion to €3.15 billion). This significant difference highlights the impact of general cost inflation and energy-driven price increases on the sector's value chain within the EU.

Import and export flows became more concentrated among fewer partners

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, rose for both imports and exports, indicating a consolidation of trade among fewer partners.

• For imports, the HHI by value increased from 1,428 to 2,097 (+46.9%). This reflects the dominance of the new top suppliers, particularly Türkiye and Indonesia.
• For exports, the HHI by value rose from 2,149 to 2,791 (+29.9%), driven by the growing importance of the UK market.

The Market Structure data shows that this trend toward concentration was even more pronounced when measured by volume, suggesting that the scale of shipments from the top suppliers increased substantially.

Conclusion

The EU market for tissue paper base stock (CN 4803) between 2015 and 2025 underwent a fundamental transformation. The decade closed with the bloc having transitioned from a net exporter to a net importer on the verge of parity, a change driven by an unprecedented, import-led expansion. This geographical reorientation was marked by the ascendancy of Türkiye and Indonesia as dominant suppliers, replacing older trade patterns. The market was severely tested by the 2022 price shocks, yet EU domestic production proved resilient, though its growth was increasingly value-based rather than volume-based. Looking at the period as a whole, the data points to a sector that became more globally integrated but also more exposed to specific international suppliers and external price volatility, leading to a more concentrated and import-dependent market structure by the end of the decade.