Market evolution: Glazed transparent papers (CN 4806) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in glazed transparent and translucent papers (Customs code 4806) from 2015 to 2025. This product group encompasses vegetable parchment, greaseproof papers, tracing papers, and glassine — specialised paper grades used in food packaging, technical drawing, archival purposes, and industrial applications. The EU has historically been a major producer and net exporter of these products, but the data reveals significant structural shifts over the analysed decade: while export values have grown, import volumes have surged dramatically, narrowing the EU's trade surplus. This report analyses these dynamics across three thematic sections.

For full context on the product scope and definitions.

1. A robust exporter losing ground to surging imports

1.1 The EU's export profile: rising values despite declining volumes

The EU maintained a substantial surplus in CN 4806 throughout the period, but the underlying dynamics tell a nuanced story. Export values grew by 19.9%, rising from €446.5 million in 2015 to €535.5 million in 2025. However, this increase was achieved entirely through higher unit prices, as export volumes actually declined by 8.2%, falling from 311,084 tonnes to 285,489 tonnes. Average export prices rose by 30.7%, from €1,435/t to €1,876/t.

This pattern — value growth masking volume decline — suggests that EU producers may be moving toward higher-value speciality products or that global demand conditions have allowed price increases to offset shrinking market share.

1.2 Imports nearly tripled in volume and value

The most striking feature of the decade is the explosive growth in imports. EU imports of CN 4806 surged by 188.8% in value (from €56.2 million to €162.2 million) and by 196.7% in volume (from 27,246 tonnes to 80,830 tonnes). Unlike exports, import prices remained essentially flat (−2.6%), indicating that the import surge was driven by genuine volume expansion rather than price effects.

1.3 The trade surplus narrowed but remains significant

The EU's trade surplus in CN 4806 declined from €390.3 million in 2015 to €373.3 million in 2025 (−4.3%), despite a peak of €447.5 million in 2022. The net import reliance indicator, which is negative for net exporters, moved from −56.3% to −38.8%, confirming a reduction in the EU's net exporter position. The EU remains a clear net exporter, but its relative dominance has diminished.

1.4 Domestic production expanded substantially

EU production data reveals that the decline in export volumes is not a sign of deindustrialisation. Production quantities rose by 50.2% (from 539,225 kg to 810,000 kg in the latest available year) while production values surged by 137.4% (from €673.9 million to €1.6 billion). This suggests that the growing domestic demand is being served partly by increased EU production, and that lower export volumes reflect a redirection of output toward the internal market or a shift in product mix.

2. Shifting trade partnerships and growing geographic concentration

2.1 Asian suppliers emerged as major import sources

The composition of EU imports changed dramatically. Norway remained the largest single supplier, growing from €36.8 million to €48.7 million (+32.5%). However, the most striking development was the rise of Asian suppliers:

China alone grew from a negligible supplier to the second-largest source of imports, accounting for over one-third of total import value by 2025. Taiwan's trajectory is even more dramatic in percentage terms, though its absolute volumes remain lower. This geographic diversification of imports toward Asia has correspondingly reduced the import concentration index (HHI) from 4,740 to 2,633 (−44.5%).

2.2 The United States consolidated its position as the primary export destination

On the export side, the United States solidified its role as the EU's largest customer, growing from €125.9 million to €237.3 million (+88.5%) and representing nearly 44% of EU exports by value in 2025. The UK remained the second-largest destination at €85.5 million. Notably, exports to China declined by 62.4% and to Korea by 56.1%, reflecting increased competition from Asian producers in those markets.

2.3 Export concentration increased as dependency on the US market grew

While import sourcing diversified, export concentration moved in the opposite direction. The export HHI nearly doubled, rising from 1,248 to 2,313 (+85.2%), driven by the growing weight of the United States. This increasing dependency on a single market represents a structural vulnerability for EU exporters, particularly given the volatility coefficients observed in US-bound exports.

2.4 Finland, France, and Italy are the EU's production specialisation hubs

Within the EU, production and export activity is concentrated among a few member states. Finland leads in export specialisation with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.81, followed by France (0.55) and Hungary (0.54). By contrast, Ireland, Bulgaria, and Malta show no meaningful specialisation in this product category. The Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden) and Central European nations (Hungary, Czechia) play outsized roles relative to their economic size, reflecting historical investment in paper manufacturing.

3. Price shocks, volatility patterns, and the 2022 inflection point

3.1 The 2022 price shock marked a structural shift in trade values

Both import and export prices spiked in 2022, a pattern consistent with the global energy and raw material cost surges that year. The system detected significant price shocks concentrated in 2022 across key EU export destinations:

The US market, accounting for nearly half of export value, experienced a 62.1% price increase — the largest single shock event in the dataset. This reflected both rising energy and pulp costs in Europe and tight supply conditions. Import prices followed a similar pattern: CN 480640 (glassine papers) saw import prices spike from €1,124/t in 2020 to €1,873/t in 2022, while CN 480620 (greaseproof papers) import prices rose from €1,812/t to €2,217/t over the same period.

3.2 Post-2022 correction varied by product and partner

After the 2022 peak, prices moderated unevenly. Export prices for glassine papers (480640) declined from €1,954/t in 2022 to €1,453/t in 2025, while greaseproof paper (480620) export prices remained elevated at €2,339/t in 2025 (compared to €2,313/t in 2022). Vegetable parchment (480610) export prices fell back from a peak of €3,713/t in 2023 to €3,244/t in 2025. This divergence suggests that cost pressures were absorbed differently across sub-segments, with greaseproof papers maintaining higher price floors likely due to sustained food packaging demand.

3.3 Import volatility is high and geographically concentrated

The coefficient of variation for imports reveals considerable instability in sourcing patterns. Some suppliers show extreme volatility (Belarus at 2.72, North Macedonia at 1.50, Indonesia at 1.15), reflecting sporadic or rapidly scaling trade flows rather than stable relationships. Norway stands out as the most stable import partner (CV of 0.07), consistent with its established position. On the export side, volatility is lower across all major partners, with the UK being the most stable (CV of 0.12) and Canada the most variable (CV of 0.60).

3.4 Glassine papers drove the import surge; greaseproof papers dominated exports

The product segment breakdown reveals that the import growth was heavily concentrated in two sub-categories:

Glassine papers (480640) accounted for the most dramatic growth, expanding from 2,510 tonnes to 38,572 tonnes. On the export side, glassine papers remained the dominant segment at 178,262 tonnes in 2025, though this was below its 2015 peak of 213,153 tonnes. Tracing papers (480630) showed the steepest decline on both the export side (−74.5% in volume) and import side, suggesting structural demand erosion — likely reflecting the digitisation of technical drawing and architectural design workflows.

Conclusion

The EU trade landscape for CN 4806 between 2015 and 2025 reveals a market in transition. The EU remains a dominant net exporter with a €373 million trade surplus in 2025, supported by strong production capacity in Nordic and Western European countries. However, the period witnessed three notable shifts: (1) a near-tripling of imports driven by new Asian suppliers — particularly China and Taiwan — that have rapidly gained market share; (2) growing export concentration on the US market, which now absorbs nearly half of EU exports by value; and (3) a persistent upward ratchet in prices following the 2022 energy cost shock, with some sub-segments retaining elevated price levels. While the EU's production base has expanded significantly, the declining export volumes and narrowing surplus suggest that the competitive landscape is evolving. The most vulnerable sub-category appears to be tracing papers, facing structural demand decline, while glassine and greaseproof papers remain the engine of both trade flows.