Market evolution: Corrugated paper and paperboard (CN 4808) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in corrugated paper and paperboard products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 4808 over the period 2015–2025. This product category — which includes corrugated paper, creped or crinkled kraft paper, and embossed or perforated paperboard in large-format rolls or sheets — is closely tied to the packaging and logistics sectors, and therefore reflects broader economic, industrial, and supply-chain dynamics within and beyond the European Union.

The analysis draws on trade data covering imports and exports between the EU and non-EU countries, as well as EU production volumes and specialisation indicators. Over the eleven-year window, the EU corrugated paper sector experienced a pronounced shift: while trade values rose substantially, physical volumes declined, pointing to a fundamental transformation in pricing, production costs, and competitive positioning.

1. A Decade of Price-Driven Value Growth Amid Falling Volumes

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 4808 over 2015–2025 is the divergence between value and volume trajectories. Export and import values grew significantly, yet the underlying tonnages contracted — a pattern consistent with structural cost inflation, shifting input prices, and post-pandemic supply-chain repricing.

1.1 Exports: value resilience despite a third less volume

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of corrugated paper and paperboard grew from €156.1 million to €189.3 million (+21.3%), yet export volumes fell from 173,541 tonnes to just 115,721 tonnes (−33.3%). The implied unit price nearly doubled, rising from €899 per tonne to €1,636 per tonne (+81.8%). This means the EU shipped less product but earned substantially more for it.

The export value peak occurred in 2022 at €202.9 million, coinciding with the global commodity price surge following the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Export quantities, however, had already begun declining after 2016 (when they reached a high of 187,799 tonnes) and fell to a trough of 106,618 tonnes in 2023 before a modest recovery in 2024–2025.

1.2 Imports: stronger value growth but similar volume compression

EU imports followed a parallel but even more pronounced value trajectory. Import values rose from €89.1 million to €132.7 million (+49.0%), while import volumes declined from 78,552 tonnes to 63,324 tonnes (−19.4%). The average import price surged from €1,134 per tonne to €2,096 per tonne (+84.9%), nearly doubling over the decade.

The faster growth in import values (+49%) compared to export values (+21%) progressively eroded the EU's trade surplus in this product category. The trade balance in value terms declined from €67.0 million in 2015 to €56.5 million in 2025 (−15.6%), reaching a low of €30.8 million along the way.

1.3 The 2021–2022 price shock as a structural turning point

The most dramatic price movements occurred in the 2021–2022 period. For exports, the unit price jumped from €980/t in 2020 to €980/t in 2021 and then spiked to €1,314/t in 2022, before moderating. For imports, prices accelerated even more sharply: from €1,722/t in 2020 to €1,722/t in 2021 and then to €2,285/t in 2022. This price shock reflected the combined effects of soaring energy costs (critical for paper manufacturing), raw material scarcity, and global freight disruptions. Notably, price shocks of abnormal magnitude were detected in imports from the United Kingdom (+61.8% in 2021) and in exports to the United States (+36.9% in 2022).

2. Shifting Geographies of Trade: Partners, Concentration, and Specialisation

Beyond aggregate trends, the geographic structure of EU trade in CN 4808 underwent meaningful changes. The import side became more diversified while exports remained concentrated among a few key EU member states — with notable shifts in partner country dynamics.

2.1 The United Kingdom dominates both sides, but with evolving roles

The United Kingdom is by far the largest single partner for EU trade in this product category, both as an import source and an export destination. In 2025, imports from the UK reached €50.9 million (38.3% of total imports), while exports to the UK were €39.2 million (20.7% of total exports). Over the decade, UK-origin imports grew by 48.2%, while exports to the UK grew by only 7.1%.

China stands out as the fastest-growing import source, with trade value nearly tripling (+199.2%) over the period — rising from €4.3 million to €12.7 million. This is consistent with the broader pattern of Chinese industrial paper producers gaining market share globally. On the export side, the United States emerged as a high-growth destination, with EU exports nearly doubling (+98.5%) to €25.6 million, making it the third-largest non-EU export market by 2025.

2.2 Import concentration remains moderate; exports are broadly diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value declined slightly from 2,980 to 2,835 (−4.9%), indicating modest diversification. For exports, the HHI remained very low at around 899, confirming that EU corrugated paper products are sold to a wide range of destinations with no single partner dominating. This structural difference — concentrated imports, diversified exports — suggests that the EU sources from a limited number of specialised suppliers but distributes its output across many markets.

2.3 Germany and France anchor EU export capacity

At the member-state level, Germany and France are the two dominant EU exporters of CN 4808 products, jointly accounting for nearly half of extra-EU exports. In 2025, Germany exported €45.2 million (+35.3% vs. 2015) and France €44.8 million (+32.2%). Italy ranked third at €21.6 million. Notably, the Netherlands showed the most dynamic growth among EU exporters (+110.9%), while Sweden more than tripled its export value from €9.6 million to €16.0 million (+67.4%).

On the import side, Italy was the largest EU importer at €26.2 million, followed by Ireland (€26.9 million, up 125.6% — the fastest growth among top importers) and Germany (€17.3 million). Greece also saw remarkable import growth (+192.9%), rising from €4.1 million to €12.1 million.

2.4 Production specialisation is concentrated in northern and central Europe

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals that Latvia (RSCA: 0.66), Lithuania (0.42), Denmark (0.41), and Czechia (0.30) have the strongest revealed comparative advantage in corrugated paper production. Germany, the largest producer by volume (38.8% of EU production), also shows meaningful specialisation (RSCA: 0.29). At the other end, Luxembourg (RSCA: −0.92), Ireland (−0.92), and Bulgaria (−0.77) are the least specialised, meaning their production in this sector is well below what their overall industrial profile would predict.

3. Domestic Production Strength Underpins Trade Autonomy

A key feature of the EU's position in the CN 4808 market is its robust domestic production base, which has expanded substantially over the decade and underpins the bloc's persistent trade surplus and low import vulnerability.

3.1 Production volumes grew faster than trade

EU production of corrugated paper and paperboard increased by 42.5% in quantity terms (from 6.79 billion kg to 9.67 billion kg) and by 76.2% in value terms (from €4.0 billion to €7.0 billion) between 2015 and 2025. The production peak was reached in the intervening years, with a maximum of 10.91 billion kg recorded at some point in the period. This growth significantly outpaced the trajectory of external trade, suggesting that most of the EU's expanded output served the internal market or replaced imports.

3.2 The EU remains a net exporter, but self-reliance has slightly weakened

Throughout the period, the EU maintained a negative net import reliance — meaning it consistently exported more than it imported. However, this self-reliance margin narrowed from −0.64 in 2015 to −0.53 in 2025, a 17.6% change toward greater import dependence. While the EU remains firmly in surplus, the faster growth of import values relative to export values indicates that external suppliers — particularly from the UK, Switzerland, and increasingly China — are capturing a growing share of EU market value.

3.3 Trade intensity declined sharply, pointing to domestic market orientation

Two key indicators confirm the increasing inward orientation of the EU corrugated paper sector. Trade intensity — the share of total apparent consumption that is traded internationally — fell from 4.4% to 2.1% (−53.6%). Similarly, export propensity — the share of production that is exported — declined from 2.6% to 1.3% (−49.6%).

These figures indicate that the EU corrugated paper industry is primarily oriented toward serving its own internal market, and that this orientation has strengthened over the decade — consistent with the growth of domestic e-commerce packaging demand and the weight-sensitive nature of corrugated products (which makes long-distance trade less economical).

3.4 Segment analysis: corrugated paper dominates volumes; creped kraft paper leads in unit value

Breaking down CN 4808 into its three sub-headings, the structure of trade becomes clearer:

• 480810 (Corrugated paper and paperboard): The dominant segment by volume. In 2025, it accounted for 53.5% of EU import volume (33,769 t) and 73.2% of export volume (84,675 t). Import prices in this segment reached €1,664/t and export prices €1,075/t.
• 480890 (Other creped, crinkled, embossed or perforated paper): The second-largest segment, with 37.7% of import volume (23,899 t) and 15.4% of export volume (17,850 t) in 2025. This segment commands significantly higher prices — €2,339/t for imports and €3,225/t for exports — reflecting its more specialised, value-added nature.
• 480840 (Creped or crinkled kraft paper): The smallest segment by volume but notable for its high and rising value. In 2025, it represented 8.9% of imports (5,655 t) and 11.4% of exports (13,197 t), with the highest import prices at €3,650/t and export prices at €3,080/t. This segment showed the strongest value growth on the import side, with import values rising from €13.2 million to €20.6 million (+56.7%).

Conclusion

The EU trade market for corrugated paper and paperboard (CN 4808) over 2015–2025 has been defined by a single overarching dynamic: rising prices offset by declining physical volumes. Both exports and imports saw their unit values roughly double, driven by energy cost inflation, raw material pressures, and the supply-chain disruptions of 2020–2022. In this environment, the EU maintained its position as a net exporter, with a robust domestic production base that grew by over 40% in volume terms.

However, several structural shifts warrant attention. Import growth has outpaced export growth in value terms, narrowing the trade surplus. China has emerged as a fast-growing import source. And the EU's trade intensity and export propensity have both halved, indicating that the industry is increasingly oriented toward the internal market rather than international commerce.

Looking forward, the data suggests that the EU corrugated paper sector is well-positioned domestically but faces growing competitive pressure at the margins — particularly from Asian producers and from neighbouring countries such as Serbia and Türkiye that are rapidly scaling their presence. The key challenge for the coming years will be whether the EU can sustain its trade surplus in an environment of structurally higher costs while continuing to serve the growing demand for sustainable packaging solutions.