Market evolution: Other plastic waste (CN 39159070) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of EU imports and exports for plastic waste under customs code 39159070 (Waste, parings and scrap, of plastics excluding those from specific polymers). The analysis covers the period from 2015 to 2025, based on complete annual data. The scope and definitions of the product are defined by its position within the EU's Combined Nomenclature, representing a residual category of other plastic waste streams. The EU market for this waste has been characterized by a general contraction in trade volumes and value, alongside notable shifts in partner countries and price pressures.

1. A Decade of Contraction: Declining Trade Volumes and Value

The overall market for CN 39159070 has contracted significantly over the 2015–2025 period. Both the volume (in tonnes) and the total value (in EUR) of EU exports and imports with non-EU countries have decreased, indicating reduced activity in this segment of the waste trade.

1.1 Sustained Decrease in Export and Import Volumes

EU exports of other plastic waste fell from 219,117 tonnes in the first period to 211,700 tonnes in the last, a decline of -3.4%. The contraction was more pronounced on the import side, which dropped from 304,333 tonnes to 288,995 tonnes, a decrease of -5.0%. This suggests a broader reduction in the physical flow of this waste category across EU borders.

1.2 Sharper Declines in Monetary Value

The decrease in value was steeper than the decrease in volume, pointing to falling unit prices. Export value declined by -11.6% to €55.9 million, while import value saw a sharper drop of -17.9% to €42.3 million. Despite the contraction, the EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period, which even grew from €11.8 million to €13.6 million (+15.8%).

2. Shifting Landscapes: Changes in Trade Partners and Internal Dynamics

The composition and concentration of the EU's key trade partners for this plastic waste evolved between 2015 and 2025. Relationships with some traditional partners weakened, while others grew in importance, altering the market's geographical structure.

2.1 Divergent Trends Among Major Export Destinations

Malaysia remained the EU's single largest export destination for this plastic waste, albeit with a significant decline of -22.1% to €15.2 million. Other major partners experienced mixed fortunes: exports to the United Kingdom grew by 11.8%, while shipments to Egypt (-72.2%) and Viet Nam (-62.9%) collapsed. The top export partners table summarizes these dramatic shifts.

2.2 Increased Import Concentration and Declining Supplier Diversity

The EU's import sourcing became slightly more concentrated, as the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased from 1,410 to 1,516 (+7.5%). The United Kingdom was consistently the largest external supplier, though its shipments fell by -14.2%. Imports from the United States saw a dramatic -50.9% decline. Conversely, imports from Norway grew by 12.0%. The internal concentration analysis shows a moderately concentrated market on both sides.

2.3 Evolving Roles of EU Member States

Within the EU, the major exporting and importing member states experienced varied fates. Germany and Italy were the top two exporters, but Germany's exports fell by -20.4% while Italy's rose by +21.0%. On the import side, Sweden was the leading importer, with a stable flow (-1.9%), while imports into Italy plunged by -60.7%. This indicates a reconfiguration of internal recycling and processing capacities across the bloc.

3. Price Erosion and Market Structure

Alongside the volume contraction, the unit price of traded plastic waste declined significantly, affecting the economics of the market. The overall market structure remained moderately concentrated, with no major shocks detected.

3.1 Significant Decline in Unit Prices

The average export price fell from €289 per tonne to €264 per tonne, a drop of -8.6%. The decline in the average import price was even steeper, falling from €169 per tonne to €146 per tonne (-13.6%). This price erosion contributed to the sharper fall in trade values compared to volumes and may reflect changing global demand, recycling economics, or the quality of the traded waste streams.

3.2 Moderate and Stable Market Concentration

The export concentration (by value) slightly decreased, with the HHI falling from 1,520 to 1,457 (-4.1%). Both import and export HHI values remain in the 1,400–1,600 range, indicating a moderately concentrated market that is not dominated by a single partner. The analysis of national specialization reveals that smaller EU members like Malta and Cyprus show high relative export specialization in this waste category, while larger economies like Germany and France are significant but not specialized exporters.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in other plastic waste (CN 39159070) underwent a period of consolidation. The market saw a clear contraction in both traded volumes and monetary values, driven by falling unit prices. Geographically, trade patterns shifted, with a decline in exports to traditional partners like Egypt and Viet Nam and a partial resilience in trade with the UK and Switzerland. The EU maintained a positive trade balance, suggesting a net outflow of this waste category. The market structure remained moderately concentrated and did not experience any major detected shocks. The observed trends likely reflect a combination of evolving global regulations on waste shipments, changing recycling economics, and shifts in industrial demand for recycled plastic feedstocks.