Market evolution: Polypropylene scrap (CN 39159011) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the EU-27's external trade in polypropylene (PP) waste, parings and scrap (customs code 39159011) over the period 2015–2025. PP scrap is a key recyclable plastic stream, and its trade flows reflect broader shifts in global recycling policy, post-Brexit trade realignment, and circular-economy dynamics within Europe. The EU remained a net exporter throughout most of the period, but the trade surplus narrowed considerably — from €15.2 million in 2015 to €12.6 million in 2025 — as imports surged by 131 % in volume while export growth lagged at 15 %. Behind these aggregate trends, a dramatic reorientation of trading partners took place, driven primarily by China's import restrictions on plastic waste and the United Kingdom's post-Brexit repositioning.

General overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. The collapse of China and Hong Kong as EU export destinations

The single most consequential structural change in EU PP scrap trade was the near-total disappearance of China and Hong Kong as export markets. Together, these two destinations accounted for over €20.9 million of EU exports in 2015 — roughly 62 % of total export value — but had shrunk to a combined €81,321 by 2025, a decline of over 99.5 %.

1.1 China's National Sword policy and the 2018 price shock

In 2017–2018, China progressively banned imports of most plastic waste and scrap under its "National Sword" campaign, with full enforcement taking effect by the end of 2018. The data captures this transition starkly: EU exports to China fell from €11.2 million in 2015 to virtually zero by 2020–2025 (just €0.98 at the minimum). A pronounced price shock in exports to China was detected centred on 2018, with an abnormality score of 19.8 and a unit-value shift of +155.4 %, consistent with a sudden contraction in volumes that inflated average declared prices as only higher-quality, higher-priced shipments continued.

Hong Kong, which served as a significant transit and reprocessing hub, followed an identical trajectory: from €9.7 million in 2015 to €36,210 in 2025 (−99.6 %). The coefficient of variation for Hong Kong exports stood at 1.19 — among the most volatile bilateral flows in the dataset — reflecting the abrupt boom-and-bust pattern.

1.2 Pivot to Southeast Asia and Turkey

As Chinese demand evaporated, EU exporters redirected shipments toward alternative Asian and near-Eastern markets. The most prominent beneficiaries were:

Top export partners by value

Viet Nam and Malaysia emerged as the primary Southeast Asian alternatives, more than doubling their intake over the period. Türkiye quadrupled its imports from the EU, positioning itself as a regional recycling hub for the Near East. A price shock in exports to Viet Nam was detected centred on 2021 (abnormality: 30.3, shift: +37.7 %), likely related to pandemic-era supply disruptions and elevated freight costs.

2. A surge in EU imports, concentrated around the United Kingdom

While export dynamics dominated headlines, the import side underwent an equally dramatic — if more gradual — transformation. Total EU imports of PP scrap rose from 34,933 tonnes (€18.3 million) in 2015 to 80,727 tonnes (€28.1 million) in 2025, representing volume growth of 131 %. This far outpaced the 15 % growth in exports, compressing the EU's trade surplus.

2.1 The United Kingdom as the dominant supplier

The United Kingdom consolidated its position as the EU's single largest source of PP scrap imports, growing from €11.0 million (60 % of total imports) in 2015 to €18.7 million (66 %) in 2025 — a 70 % value increase. The UK's share and volatility (coefficient of variation: 0.48) suggest that while flows were substantial, they were also subject to meaningful year-to-year swings, potentially linked to Brexit-related customs adjustments and regulatory divergence in waste management.

Within the EU, Italy and the Netherlands emerged as the principal receiving Member States for extra-EU PP scrap. Italy's imports rose from €4.9 million to €8.7 million (+78 %), while the Netherlands saw even faster growth from €3.2 million to €10.1 million (+216 %), likely reflecting the country's role as a gateway port and its large plastics recycling sector.

2.2 Declining unit values signal a structural price shift

A striking feature of the import data is the sustained decline in average unit values: from €524/tonne in 2015 to €348/tonne in 2025, a drop of 33.6 %. This decline was not uniform — import prices peaked above €579/t at their maximum — but the downward trajectory is clear. Several factors likely contributed:

• Compositional shift: As volumes from lower-cost suppliers (e.g., UK, Bulgaria) grew, the weighted-average price naturally declined.
• Quality mix: Larger volumes may include more mixed or contaminated grades commanding lower prices.
• Market saturation: Rapid growth in supply outpaced demand, exerting downward pressure on scrap prices.

By contrast, export prices remained relatively stable, rising modestly from €225/t to €237/t (+5.7 %), suggesting that EU exporters maintained access to higher-value end markets.

2.3 The brief trade deficit of 2021–2022

The combination of surging imports and sluggish export growth pushed the EU's PP scrap balance into deficit at its nadir (minimum recorded value: −€17.3 million). This marked reversal — from a comfortable surplus of €15.2 million in 2015 — reflects the growing appetite of EU recyclers for imported feedstock, coupled with the loss of premium-priced Chinese buyers. By 2025, the balance had recovered to a modest €12.6 million surplus, but the structural trend toward a narrower gap was evident.

3. Rising concentration and shifting specialisation patterns

The reshuffling of trade partners was accompanied by notable changes in market concentration and the revealed specialisation of individual EU Member States.

3.1 Increasing concentration on the import side

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 3,863 in 2015 to 4,560 in 2025 (+18.1 %), while the volume-based HHI climbed even more sharply from 3,018 to 5,190 (+72.0 %). These levels indicate a moderately concentrated import market that has become more reliant on fewer suppliers — principally the United Kingdom. This concentration carries supply-chain risk: any disruption to UK–EU waste trade (regulatory, logistical, or otherwise) would have outsized effects on EU recyclers.

The export-side HHI also edged upward (from 2,291 to 2,700 by value), though it remained below import-side levels, indicating a somewhat more diversified destination portfolio. However, the volume-based export HHI fell from 2,176 to 1,628 (−25.2 %), suggesting that while export values became more concentrated, tonnages were distributed more evenly — a possible sign that new, smaller-volume markets were absorbing lower-value scrap.

3.2 Member State specialisation in PP scrap trade

Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 show that Greece (RSCA: 0.71), Estonia (0.71), Malta (0.55), Austria (0.52), and Belgium (0.48) were the most specialised EU exporters of PP scrap, with export shares in this product far exceeding their overall export shares. At the other end of the spectrum, Italy (RSCA: −0.86), Finland (−0.77), Bulgaria (−0.74), Ireland (−0.67), and Spain (−0.66) showed negative specialisation, meaning they were predominantly importers or re-processors of PP scrap rather than net exporters.

Ireland's case is particularly noteworthy: while its RSCA indicates import-orientation, its raw export value surged from €636,000 in 2015 to €15.4 million in 2025 (+2,318 %), making it the single largest EU exporting Member State by value in 2025. This suggests the emergence of specialised reprocessing or collection activities, or alternatively, the routing of scrap through Irish ports.

3.3 Price shocks and supply-side volatility

The volatility analysis reveals that the most volatile bilateral flows involved partners undergoing structural transitions. Imports from China showed the highest coefficient of variation (2.56), reflecting the boom-then-bust pattern described above. On the export side, flows to Egypt (CV: 2.53), the Russian Federation (1.34), Hong Kong (1.19), and Ukraine (1.01) were the most unstable, suggesting opportunistic or episodic trade rather than established commercial relationships. The three largest detected shocks all occurred in the export direction: to Viet Nam (2021), the United Kingdom (2018), and China (2018), each representing price-driven anomalies consistent with policy or market disruptions.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in polypropylene scrap over 2015–2025 was defined by three intertwined dynamics: the collapse of China and Hong Kong as export destinations following the National Sword ban, the surge in imports driven by the United Kingdom, and the resulting compression of the EU's trade surplus. The market underwent a profound geographic reorientation — from an eastward-facing export model centred on Asia to a more regionally concentrated trade pattern with the UK, Southeast Asia (Viet Nam, Malaysia), and Türkiye as key partners.

Import volumes more than doubled while unit values fell by a third, suggesting that the EU increasingly absorbed lower-cost PP scrap feedstock to supply its growing domestic recycling capacity. At the same time, export prices held relatively steady, indicating that EU exporters retained access to higher-value outlets. However, the rising import concentration — with the UK accounting for two-thirds of import value — introduces meaningful supply-chain vulnerability.

Looking ahead, the stability of this reconfigured market will depend on regulatory developments (particularly post-Brexit waste shipment rules and evolving EU circular-economy legislation), the capacity of Southeast Asian markets to continue absorbing EU scrap, and the pace of investment in domestic PP recycling infrastructure. The data suggests that the dramatic shifts of 2018–2021 have largely stabilised, but the structural rebalancing of the EU from net exporter toward a more import-reliant position appears to be an enduring feature of this market.