Market evolution: Other fresh vegetables (CN 0709) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in fresh or chilled vegetables classified under Combined Nomenclature code 0709 over the period 2015–2025. This is a residual product category that captures a diverse basket of vegetables — including peppers (Capsicum/Pimenta), mushrooms, asparagus, aubergines, spinach, artichokes, pumpkins, and various other fresh produce — that are not covered by more specific codes for potatoes, tomatoes, lettuces, carrots, cucumbers, or leguminous vegetables (Scope & Definitions).

Over the decade under review, the EU's external trade in CN 0709 has expanded substantially in value terms while showing only moderate volume growth on the export side, a divergence that points to a broad-based increase in unit prices. The trade balance has remained comfortably in surplus throughout, though the composition of both imports and exports has shifted markedly. Three principal dynamics stand out: (1) a structural reorientation of import sourcing toward southern and eastern Mediterranean partners, notably Morocco and Türkiye; (2) a consolidation of the EU's export base around a small number of highly specialised Member States; and (3) a generalised price inflation across most product lines, which has amplified the value of trade far beyond what volume trends alone would suggest.

The analysis draws on EU-level aggregate trade data reported at annual frequency, with the General Overview providing the headline figures, while partner-level detail is available in the by-country partners dashboard and Member-State detail in the reporters dashboard.

1. A Surplus That Widened on Price Rather Than Volume

The trade balance expanded by over a quarter despite modest export volume growth

The EU has maintained a persistent trade surplus in CN 0709 throughout the 2015–2025 period. The surplus in value terms rose from €671.5 million in 2015 to €847.0 million in 2025, an increase of 26.1%. However, the headline number conceals a striking asymmetry: export volumes grew by only 3.4% (from 778,349 t to 804,601 t), while export values rose by 45.6% (from €1.33 billion to €1.94 billion). This implies that nearly all of the value growth on the export side was driven by rising unit prices — from €1,710/t in 2015 to €2,408/t in 2025, a jump of 40.8%.

Imports grew faster than exports, eroding the surplus's relative strength

While the absolute surplus widened, the growth rates reveal a different underlying trend: imports grew much faster than exports in both value (+65.3% vs. +45.6%) and volume (+49.4% vs. 3.4%). This points to a structural increase in the EU's appetite for imported fresh vegetables from outside the bloc, partly driven by growing demand for off-season produce and specialty items. The import price increase was more moderate (+10.7%), suggesting that the import volume expansion was facilitated by competitively priced suppliers entering the market.

The General Overview confirms that the peak export value reached €1,959.9 million (in 2024), while the peak import value was the terminal year figure of €1,090.9 million (2025). The maximum trade surplus of €929.8 million occurred at some point during the period, suggesting a mid-period peak before import growth caught up.

Capsicum/Pimenta peppers dominate both import and export volumes

At the product-segment level, the dominant sub-category in both EU imports and exports is 070960 — Fresh or chilled fruits of the genus Capsicum or Pimenta (i.e., peppers and chillies). On the import side, this sub-category grew from 224,850 t in 2015 to 358,686 t in 2025 (+59.5%), accounting for the majority of total import volume. On the export side, Capsicum volumes remained broadly stable at around 302,000–338,000 t over the period, ending at 306,870 t in 2025. This means that while the EU is a major exporter of peppers, the gap between import and export volumes in this category has narrowed considerably, potentially reflecting increasing competition from third-country producers in Morocco and Türkiye.

The second-largest import sub-category is 070993 — pumpkins, squash and gourds, which grew from 73,462 t to 114,824 t (+56.3%). On the export side, 070951 — Agaricus mushrooms was the second-largest category but showed a declining trend, falling from 141,733 t in 2015 to 117,393 t in 2025 (−17.2%). Meanwhile, 070970 — spinach exports more than doubled, from 17,480 t to 35,086 t (product segment breakdown).

2. A Reorientation of Import Sourcing Toward the Mediterranean Rim

Morocco and Türkiye have become the EU's dominant external suppliers

The most striking structural shift on the import side is the rapid ascent of Morocco and Türkiye as the EU's primary sources of fresh vegetables under CN 0709. Morocco's exports to the EU rose from €174.9 million in 2015 to €308.4 million in 2025 (+76.3%), making it the single largest non-EU supplier. Even more dramatic was the rise of Türkiye, whose exports to the EU surged from €81.5 million to €270.8 million (+232.3%), vaulting it from a distant third position to a close second.

These two Mediterranean countries benefit from geographical proximity, favourable climate conditions allowing year-round production, and — in Morocco's case — an extensive network of trade agreements with the EU that provide preferential market access. The combined value of Moroccan and Turkish supplies to the EU nearly tripled over the decade, from €256.4 million to €579.1 million, and they jointly accounted for more than half of the top-seven partner imports by 2025.

Israel and the United Kingdom saw significant declines

At the other end of the spectrum, Israel experienced a 60.0% drop in its exports of CN 0709 vegetables to the EU, falling from €63.5 million to €25.4 million. Israel also exhibited the highest volatility among the top import partners, with a coefficient of variation of 0.64, suggesting erratic or declining trade flows rather than stable supply (volatility dashboard). The United Kingdom, which was formerly an EU member state and thus a domestic trade partner until Brexit, saw its exports to the EU decline by 36.0% — from €35.1 million to €22.5 million — a trend likely connected to the disruption of supply chains following the UK's departure from the EU single market in 2021. Conversely, South Africa emerged as a rapidly growing supplier (+266.5%), though from a low base.

Import concentration has increased, reflecting the growing weight of top suppliers

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 1,278 in 2015 to 1,575 in 2025 (+23.2%), indicating a measurable increase in import concentration (concentration dashboard). In volume terms, the HHI climbed from 1,708 to 2,192 (+28.3%). While these values remain well below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with a "highly concentrated" market, the trend is unambiguous: the EU's import base for fresh vegetables is becoming more reliant on a smaller number of key suppliers, principally Morocco and Türkiye. This concentration carries supply-security implications, particularly given the climate vulnerability of Mediterranean agriculture.

3. The EU Export Base Is Consolidating Around Spain and the Netherlands

Spain's export value more than doubled, overtaking most peers

On the export side, the intra-EU distribution of trade in CN 0709 reveals a story of dramatic concentration. Spain emerged as the star performer, with its exports of fresh vegetables (to non-EU destinations) soaring from €259.0 million in 2015 to €616.1 million in 2025 (+137.8%). This extraordinary growth cemented Spain's position as the EU's second-largest exporter, behind only the Netherlands, which remained the leading exporter at €559.7 million in 2025 but grew far more modestly (+4.0%) from its 2015 level of €538.2 million.

Specialisation data confirms Spain's dominant comparative advantage

Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 confirms Spain's outstanding specialisation in this product category. With an RSCA of 0.73 and an RCA of 6.47, Spain has by far the strongest comparative advantage in CN 0709 among all EU Member States, driven by its climate, extensive greenhouse infrastructure, and established logistics networks for perishable goods (specialisation dashboard). The Netherlands ranks second (RSCA 0.26, RCA 1.72), reflecting its role as a major trade hub rather than solely a primary producer — a pattern consistent with the country's broader horticultural re-export model. Greece (RSCA 0.24), Lithuania (0.22), and Italy (0.13) round out the top five.

At the other end of the spectrum, Malta (RSCA −1.00), Ireland (−1.00), Finland (−0.95), and Cyprus (−0.95) show strongly negative specialisation, indicating that their CN 0709 trade is heavily weighted toward imports. Ireland's presence in this group is notable given that it was the seventh-largest exporter by value; this apparent paradox is explained by Ireland's even larger import bill, consistent with the country's limited arable land for vegetable production.

Poland and Ireland emerged as high-growth exporters

Beyond the Iberian story, Poland nearly doubled its CN 0709 exports, rising from €79.8 million to €156.0 million (+95.5%), making it the fourth-largest EU exporter by 2025. Ireland similarly surged from €101.2 million to €173.6 million (+71.5%), a remarkable trajectory for a country with limited comparative advantage. These gains likely reflect niche product positioning (e.g., mushrooms in Poland's case) and growing demand in nearby non-EU markets such as the United Kingdom.

Export concentration has also intensified

The HHI for EU exports rose from 3,663 to 4,376 (+19.5%) by value, and from 3,928 to 5,108 (+30.1%) by volume. These levels are substantially higher than the import-side HHI, indicating that the EU's export basket is already quite concentrated and becoming more so. The concentration dashboard confirms this trend: export-side concentration is driven largely by the dominance of the United Kingdom as a destination, which absorbed €1,237.6 million of the EU's €1,937.9 million total exports in 2025 (63.9%).

4. Disruptions, Volatility, and the UK–Belarus–USA Divergence

The United Kingdom remains the overwhelmingly dominant export destination, but post-Brexit dynamics are visible

The United Kingdom accounted for €764.6 million of EU CN 0709 exports in 2015 and €1,237.6 million in 2025, representing growth of 61.9%. The UK's share of total EU extra-EU exports in this category is dominant at roughly 64% in 2025. While the growth trajectory is strong, the volatility coefficient for UK-bound exports is modest (0.08), indicating a stable and reliable trade flow. Switzerland (€182.0 M → €272.2 M, +49.5%) and Norway (€95.2 M → €124.3 M, +30.7%) also represent stable, low-volatility export markets, collectively adding significant value.

Belarus and the United States experienced dramatic export declines

In sharp contrast, exports to Belarus collapsed by 88.2%, from €44.9 million to just €5.3 million. This decline is the most severe among the top partners and carries an exceptionally high volatility coefficient of 1.03 — the highest of any tracked relationship. It is almost certainly linked to EU sanctions regimes imposed following the political crisis in Belarus from 2020 onwards and the broader geopolitical realignment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Exports to the United States also fell sharply, from €82.2 million to €25.5 million (−69.0%), with a volatility coefficient of 0.75. The US decline is more puzzling at first glance but may reflect shifts in consumer preferences, increased competition from Latin American suppliers, and logistical challenges associated with transatlantic fresh produce trade. Ukraine, conversely, saw EU exports surge by 553.2% (from €3.8 million to €24.9 million), likely reflecting both EU solidarity trade flows and Ukraine's growing integration with European supply chains following the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement.

Price shocks were detected in several trade relationships

The shock detection analysis flagged several notable events. The most significant was a price shock in imports from Tunisia in 2023, with an abnormality score of 2,438 and a −10.5% price shift. A dramatic price spike was also detected in imports from Chile in 2019, with a +1,295% price shift, though this affected only 0.1% of total import value and may reflect a small-volume anomaly rather than a systemic disruption. On the export side, a minor price shock was detected for Greenland in 2021. While these shocks were flagged by the algorithm, their overall market impact appears limited given the small value shares involved.

High-volatility suppliers signal supply-chain risks

Several import partners exhibited notably high price or volume volatility (coefficient of variation exceeding 0.50), including Israel (0.64), South Africa (0.56), Egypt (0.61), and Albania (0.54). While these relationships have generally trended upward in value, their instability warrants attention from importers seeking reliable year-round supply. By contrast, the main suppliers — Morocco (0.19) and Türkiye (0.24) — display comparatively moderate volatility, reinforcing their attractiveness as preferred sourcing partners.

Conclusion

The EU's external trade in fresh or chilled "other" vegetables (CN 0709) grew substantially between 2015 and 2025, driven overwhelmingly by price increases rather than volume expansion on the export side, and by both volume and price growth on the import side. The trade surplus widened to €847 million by 2025, but the faster pace of import growth signals a structural shift in the EU's sourcing patterns.

The most consequential development is the consolidation of Morocco and Türkiye as the EU's primary non-EU suppliers, together accounting for over €579 million in 2025. Their rise has come partly at the expense of traditional suppliers such as Israel and the post-Brexit United Kingdom, and has contributed to a measurable increase in import concentration. On the export side, Spain has dramatically strengthened its position, nearly matching the Netherlands in export value despite having started at less than half the Dutch level. The EU's export market remains overwhelmingly concentrated on the United Kingdom, which absorbs nearly two-thirds of all extra-EU exports.

Looking ahead, the data suggests several key risks and opportunities: the growing import dependence on a narrow set of Mediterranean suppliers raises questions about supply resilience in the context of climate change and geopolitical instability; the continued price inflation across most product lines may test consumer demand; and the rapid growth of trade with Ukraine and the decline in Belarus-bound exports illustrate how geopolitical events can rapidly reshape trade flows in perishable goods.