Market evolution: Fresh tomatoes (CN 0702) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in fresh tomatoes (Combined Nomenclature code 0702) over the 2015-2025 period. The analysis reveals a profound structural shift in the EU's tomato market. Over the decade, the EU transformed from a net exporter with a trade surplus into a substantial net importer, driven by a surge in import volumes and, crucially, sharply rising unit prices. The market also experienced significant reorientation in trade partners, influenced by geopolitical events, and increasing price volatility.
Overview of EU trade in fresh tomatoes
1. The Structural Reversal of the EU's Trade Balance
The most striking development over the 2015-2025 period is the reversal of the EU's trade position in fresh tomatoes. The bloc shifted from being a significant net exporter to a major net importer, altering its fundamental market role.
From Surplus to Deficit: A Decade of Change
In 2015, the EU's tomato trade with non-EU countries showed a healthy surplus of €255.4 million. By 2025, this had swung to a deficit of €588.1 million, representing a dramatic negative change of 330.2%. This turnaround was not merely a volume story but was amplified by divergent price trends. While both import and export volumes declined initially, imports subsequently surged while export volumes fell, and prices for both flows increased significantly, with import prices rising even faster.
| Metric (EUR) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import Value | €431,984,704 | €1,375,126,690 | +218.3 |
| Export Value | €687,429,465 | €787,075,075 | +14.5 |
| Trade Balance | €255,444,761 (Surplus) | -€588,051,616 (Deficit) | -330.2 |
The Drivers: Volumes and Prices
The balance reversal is explained by a combination of falling export volumes and rapidly growing import volumes and values.
- Export Dynamics: Export volumes contracted by 32.2%, from 565,037 tonnes in 2015 to 383,128 tonnes in 2025. Despite this, export values grew by 14.5% because of a 68.8% increase in the average export price (from €1,217/t to €2,053/t).
- Import Dynamics: Import volumes increased by 73.7%, from 445,478 tonnes to 773,762 tonnes. Import values, however, skyrocketed by 218.3%, as the average import price surged by 83.3% (from €970/t to €1,777/t). This indicates that the EU's growing appetite for imported tomatoes was coupled with a sustained, steep increase in their cost.
2. Geopolitical Shocks and the Reconfiguration of Supply Chains
The period was marked by significant shifts in trade partners, driven by both long-term trends and acute geopolitical events. This led to a reconfiguration of supply chains, with varying degrees of concentration and volatility.
Import Sources: Deepening Reliance on the Mediterranean Basin
The EU's import market became increasingly concentrated around key Mediterranean and Black Sea suppliers.
- Morocco solidified its position as the dominant supplier, with its share of EU import value rising from 78% in 2015 to 76% in 2025. The value of imports from Morocco grew by 209.8% to reach €1.05 billion.
- Türkiye emerged as the second-largest supplier, experiencing explosive growth of 470.6% to €219.7 million, though its peak was in 2023 (€332.4 million).
- Tunisia also showed strong growth (532.8%).
- In contrast, imports from Senegal declined by 65.6%, and from the United Kingdom by 91.6%, reflecting the impact of Brexit on trade data compilation and flows.
Export Destinations: Diversification Amidst Disruption
EU exports remained heavily focused on the United Kingdom, whose share grew slightly to 72.8% of total export value by 2025. However, geopolitical events caused severe disruptions elsewhere:
- Exports to Belarus collapsed by 90.1%, and to the Russian Federation by 97.5%, essentially disappearing by 2025.
- Meanwhile, exports to Ukraine (+467.2%) and Serbia (+404.7**) grew substantially, possibly reflecting trade reorientation or support flows.
- Exports to Switzerland also increased robustly (83.6%).
Internal EU Market Dynamics and Concentration
The data on intra-EU specialisation reveals a classic pattern for this crop. In 2025, Spain (RSCA: 0.59) and the Netherlands (RSCA: 0.46) were the most specialised EU exporters, holding significant Revealed Comparative Advantage. Conversely, northern countries like Ireland, Finland, and Sweden had very low specialisation (negative RSCA), indicating they are major importers within the EU internal market.
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration in value remained high (around 6,000), confirming that the EU's external tomato imports are highly concentrated among a few key partners, predominantly Morocco. For exports, the HHI increased from 4,780 to 5,516, indicating rising concentration, largely due to the dominant and growing share of the UK market.
Concentration and specialisation metrics
3. The Era of Price Volatility and Supply Shocks
The 2015-2025 decade was characterized by significant price volatility in the tomato market, culminating in identifiable supply shocks, particularly in the import chain.
A General Trend of Rising Prices
Both import and export unit prices rose steadily over the period. The import price increase (83.3%) slightly outpaced the export price increase (68.8%). This general inflation in tomato prices reflects broader factors such as rising input costs (energy, labour, fertilizers), climate-related supply pressures, and increased logistical costs.
Identifying Specific Supply Shocks
The analysis detects a notable price shock event centered on 2022. Imports from Türkiye experienced an abnormal price spike in that year, with a 32.4% shift in price and an abnormality score of 35.1. This shock coincided with high global inflation and energy costs in the wake of the war in Ukraine, likely severely impacting production and logistics costs in the region. The event's significance is underscored by Türkiye's large share of EU imports (19.3% in value during that period).
Volatility Across Trade Routes
The coefficient of variation (CV) of trade values reveals differing levels of stability across partners.
- Most Stable Import Routes: Morocco (CV: 0.19) showed the most stable import value growth, reinforcing its role as a reliable anchor supplier. Imports from the Dominican Republic (CV: 0.22) were also relatively stable.
- Most Volatile Import Routes: Israel (CV: 1.50) and Ukraine (CV: 0.84) displayed extremely high volatility, indicating erratic trade flows.
- Export Volatility: Exports to Norway (CV: 0.10) and Switzerland (CV: 0.13) were highly stable. In contrast, exports to Belarus (CV: 1.13) and the Russian Federation (CV: 1.06) collapsed from peak to near-zero, reflecting the ultimate form of volatility driven by geopolitical rupture.
Volatility of trade values by partner
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's fresh tomato trade underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc's initial trade surplus vanished, replaced by a significant deficit of nearly €590 million by 2025. This structural change was propelled by a strong 73.7% increase in import volumes, predominantly from Morocco, and compounded by a severe 83.3% rise in average import prices.
The market proved highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions, which dramatically reshaped export destination patterns—collapsing trade with Belarus and Russia while boosting it to Ukraine and Serbia. The period also ended with heightened volatility and clear price shock events, notably linked to Turkish imports in 2022. Overall, the EU's tomato sector has become more import-dependent, more exposed to international supply and price risks, and more concentrated in its key trade relationships, particularly its reliance on Morocco for imports and the UK for exports.