Market evolution: Preserved vegetables (CN 0711) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The EU trade in provisionally preserved vegetables (CN 0711) over the 2015–2025 decade reveals a market undergoing significant structural transformation. Overall trade data shows a persistent and widening trade deficit, driven by a divergence in volume and price trends between exports and imports. The EU's role evolved from a moderately specialised producer into a more import-dependent market, with its export profile becoming more concentrated and price-sensitive. Concurrently, the sourcing of imports diversified geographically, introducing new dynamics in supply chain resilience. This report analyses these key dynamics across three core areas: the evolving trade balance, structural market shifts, and the associated volatility and vulnerability.

1. A Widening Deficit Driven by Divergent Volume and Price Trajectories

The period was characterised by a significant expansion of the EU's trade deficit in preserved vegetables, fuelled by simultaneous growth in import volumes and a relative increase in export prices.

Import volumes grew substantially while export volumes contracted

From 2015 to 2025, EU imports of CN 0711 increased in volume by 59.4%, rising from 107,293 tonnes to 171,049 tonnes. In contrast, export volumes fell by 38.4%, declining from 49,682 tonnes to 30,582 tonnes. This volume divergence was the primary driver behind the ballooning trade deficit, which deepened from -€110.7 million to -€177.3 million.

Export prices rose sharply, diverging from relatively stable import prices

Despite falling volumes, EU export value grew by 14.7%, from €46.4 million to €53.3 million. This was achieved through a dramatic 86.4% increase in export unit prices, from €934/t to €1,742/t. Conversely, import prices experienced a modest 7.9% decline, from €1,464/t to €1,348/t. This price divergence suggests the EU is exporting higher-value products while importing more competitively priced, volume-driven goods.

Key partner dynamics underscore shifting sourcing strategies

The top import sources showed strong growth, with notable increases from emerging suppliers. Imports from Türkiye surged by 199.2%, and those from the Syrian Arab Republic jumped by 340.6%. Traditional suppliers like India and Egypt also saw robust growth of 80.6% and 89.8%, respectively. On the export side, the UK remained the top partner but with a 31.0% decline in value, while exports to Belarus exploded by 6,447.3%.

2. Structural Shifts in Production and Intra-EU Specialisation

Underlying the trade figures are significant changes in the EU's production landscape and the competitive specialisation of its member states.

Domestic production grew in volume and value

EU production of provisionally preserved vegetables expanded substantially. Production quantity rose by 211.9%, from 106.1 million kg to 330.9 million kg, while production value increased by 67.9%, from €121.7 million to €204.2 million. This indicates growing output, though the slower value growth points to increased production of lower-unit-value segments.

Specialisation is concentrated in Southern and Eastern European states

A clear geographical pattern of specialisation emerged in 2025. The most specialised EU exporters were Greece (RSCA: 0.91), Spain (RSCA: 0.75), and Portugal (RSCA: 0.53). Conversely, Ireland, Finland, and Czechia were the least specialised, with minimal or no revealed comparative advantage. This structure aligns with traditional agricultural and processing strengths within the EU.

Import and export concentration trends moved in opposite directions

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners increased slightly by 8.1%, indicating a modest rise in sourcing concentration by value. Meanwhile, export concentration declined sharply by 38.2%, suggesting EU exporters diversified their destination markets, albeit from a more concentrated base. This makes the EU's export channel potentially more resilient to partner-specific shocks.

3. Market Volatility, Price Shocks, and Growing Import Dependency

The trade evolution occurred against a backdrop of notable price volatility, specific supply shocks, and a rising net import reliance, highlighting vulnerabilities.

Price volatility was significant for both imports and exports, especially with certain partners

The coefficient of variation (CV) for trade values highlights highly volatile relationships. Export volatility was extreme with Belarus (CV: 1.39) and Norway (CV: 1.07). Import volatility was high with Argentina (CV: 0.93) and Sri Lanka (CV: 0.81). Such volatility complicates supply chain planning and risk management for EU processors and retailers.

Two major price shocks were detected during the period

1. EU exports to the United States in 2021: A price shock with 90.3% shift and very high abnormality (9.5) occurred, coinciding with a peak in US demand or disrupted global supply chains, given the US's 27.9% share of EU export value that year.
2. EU imports from Egypt in 2022: A price shock with a 28.0% shift was detected, affecting a partner that represented 24.5% of import value, likely linked to energy and input cost inflation or logistical disruptions.

Net import reliance increased, reflecting growing dependency

The EU's net import reliance as a percentage of apparent consumption rose from 41.1% to 51.9%. This 26.1% increase confirms that despite robust domestic production growth, the EU's consumption is increasingly met by imports. This heightened dependency, combined with the identified price shocks and partner volatility, underscores the sector's exposure to international supply chain risks.

Conclusion

The EU market for provisionally preserved vegetables (CN 0711) between 2015 and 2025 has been defined by a paradoxical trend: expanding domestic production alongside a surging, increasingly necessary import stream that has widened the trade deficit. The market structure has pivoted towards greater import dependency, with sourcing diversifying to include new, sometimes volatile, partners in the Mediterranean and Middle East. Export volumes have declined but are sustained by a shift towards higher-value products, destined for a more diversified set of markets. While this evolution has allowed EU producers to maintain export value, the rising net import reliance and demonstrated susceptibility to supply-side shocks highlight a growing vulnerability. The key challenge for the sector moving forward will be balancing the efficiencies of global sourcing with the need for resilient supply chains and maintaining competitive domestic production.