Market evolution: Fresh alliaceous vegetables (CN 0703) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union in fresh alliaceous vegetables (onions, shallots, garlic, leeks, and related products) under customs code 0703 from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the EU’s external trade in this sector exhibited significant structural shifts. The analysis reveals a market characterized by robust, price-driven growth in export revenues, a dramatic expansion in import volumes and values, and a clear geographic reorientation of both import sources and export destinations. The following sections detail these main findings.

1. Asymmetric Growth: Robust Export Revenues vs. Surging Import Dependence

The decade was defined by divergent growth trajectories between the EU's exports and imports. While the EU maintained a persistent and substantial trade surplus, this was achieved through strong price increases rather than volume growth, whereas import expansion was volume-led.

Export value growth was primarily driven by rising prices, not volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU’s export value of fresh alliaceous vegetables grew by 52.8%, rising from €534.2 million to €816.1 million. However, this was largely a price phenomenon; export volumes increased by a more modest 8.8%, from 1.33 million tonnes to 1.45 million tonnes. Consequently, the average export price surged by 40.4%, from €402/t to €564/t. This indicates that EU exporters, particularly from major hubs like the Netherlands and Spain, managed to command significantly higher unit values in non-EU markets. The peak export value was reached in 2022 at €935.9 million.

Import growth was explosive in both volume and value

In stark contrast, EU imports surged dramatically. Import values grew by 124.9% to reach €483.3 million, while import volumes nearly doubled, increasing by 87.3% to 529,907 tonnes. This volume-led growth suggests a fundamental increase in the EU's reliance on external suppliers to meet domestic demand. The most notable spike occurred between 2018 and 2019, when import volumes leaped by over 115%.

Source: General Overview – Trade

2. Geographic Reorientation: Strengthened African Ties and Diversified Sourcing

The geographic pattern of trade underwent significant changes, with a strengthening of export ties to West Africa and a major diversification and intensification of imports from new supplier regions.

West Africa emerged as a crucial and growing export destination

While the United Kingdom remained the EU's largest export partner by value (€257.4 million in 2025), the most dynamic growth occurred in exports to West Africa. Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, and Mauritania all saw export value increases ranging from 76.6% to 228.7% over the period. This points to strong regional demand and potentially reflects the EU's role as a key supplier in these markets. Conversely, exports to Brazil collapsed from €68.1 million to just €0.7 million, a 98.9% decline, representing the most dramatic market loss.

Import sources diversified and intensified, led by Egypt, China, and Türkiye

The EU's import portfolio diversified significantly. Traditional suppliers like New Zealand saw their share diminish, while new major sources emerged:

• Egypt became the top import partner by value in 2025 (€113.3 million), a growth of 216.2% from 2015.
• China consolidated its position, with imports growing 150.9% to €132.3 million, making it the top supplier by value in 2025.
• Türkiye and Peru became significant new suppliers, with growth rates of 478.2% and 512.7% respectively.

This shift indicates a strategic move by EU importers to source from a broader and more competitive set of global producers, likely driven by cost, seasonal complementarity, and supply chain considerations.

Source: Top Partners by Value

3. Market Structure and Volatility: Consolidation, Specialisation, and Price Shocks

The market structure shows a consolidation in both import and export flows, while analysis of member state specialisation reveals a clear core-periphery dynamic. Price volatility, particularly in specific bilateral relationships, introduced notable shocks.

Trade concentration increased, highlighting reliance on key partners

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, increased for both imports and exports. The import HHI rose from 1,278 to 1,497 (+17.1%), and the export HHI rose from 1,195 to 1,344 (+12.5%). This indicates a greater reliance on a smaller number of key trading partners, which can increase market efficiency but also vulnerability to supply disruptions in those specific countries.

Specialisation patterns confirm the EU's core producers

Analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 confirms the Netherlands and Spain as the EU's specialised exporters, with high positive scores (0.487 and 0.633). This is consistent with their dominant role in EU export values. Conversely, countries like Ireland and Finland show extreme negative specialisation, indicating they are net importers and do not have a comparative advantage in this sector.

Specific bilateral trade flows experienced significant price volatility and shocks

Volatility analysis (measured by coefficient of variation) shows that export flows to the United Kingdom were exceptionally stable (CV: 0.07), reflecting their role as a dependable, high-volume market. In contrast, flows to partners like Kazakhstan (CV: 1.62) and Brazil (CV: 1.11) were highly volatile.

The system detected notable price shocks, including:

• A price shock in exports to the Philippines in 2023, where the price abnormality was extremely high (691.0) with a 60.6% shift.
• Price shocks in imports from Chile (2021) and Türkiye (2023), suggesting abrupt changes in supply costs or quality from these origins.

Source: Volatility & Shocks

Garlic imports drove the expansion of the 070320 sub-segment

A product segment breakdown shows the import surge was overwhelmingly driven by fresh garlic (CN 070320). Its import volume grew by 139.2%, from 46,738 tonnes to 111,812 tonnes, and its value nearly tripled. Onions and shallots (070310) also saw substantial import growth. This points to a specific and growing consumer and industrial demand for garlic in the EU that is increasingly met by external producers, particularly from China.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in fresh alliaceous vegetables transformed. The bloc remained a net exporter, but its export growth was fundamentally price-driven, particularly through stable, high-value shipments to the UK and expanding markets in West Africa. More significantly, the EU's import dependence deepened markedly, with volumes and values nearly doubling. This growth was powered by a strategic diversification towards new major suppliers in Egypt, China, and Türkiye, with garlic being a key import product. While the overall trade balance remained positive, the structural shift towards greater import reliance and concentration on fewer, though more diverse, partners highlights an evolving market with new opportunities and potential vulnerabilities for the EU's agricultural trade in this sector.