Market evolution: Onions and shallots (CN 070310) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in fresh or chilled onions and shallots (customs code 070310) over the period 2015–2025. The code is a bundling heading that encompasses onion sets (07031011), other fresh onions (07031019), and shallots (07031090). Throughout the period, the EU has remained a net exporter, yet the dynamics of its trade balance, sourcing geography, and pricing have shifted considerably. Rising input costs, post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions, and the 2022 energy–food price shock have all left their mark on this market.

1. The EU's Surplus Holds but Is Under Pressure from Rapidly Growing Imports

Export values grew more than half, while import values nearly doubled

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's export value in this segment rose by 52.1 %, from €394 million to €600 million (General Overview – trade). Over the same span, export quantities increased by only 11.3 % (1.23 Mt → 1.37 Mt), implying that higher unit prices—up 36.6 % from €319/t to €436/t—accounted for a large share of the value gain. Meanwhile, imports nearly doubled in value (+97.0 %, from €118 million to €232 million) and expanded even faster in volume (+79.5 %, from 225 kt to 403 kt).

Source: General Overview – trade

The trade balance widened in absolute terms but is eroding structurally

The EU's surplus grew from €276 million in 2015 to €368 million in 2025. However, this headline figure masks a deteriorating trend: imports as a share of exports rose from roughly 30 % in 2015 to 39 % in 2025. The 2019 import spike—driven by a single-season surge to 543 kt, the period maximum—illustrates how a poor European harvest can quickly amplify demand for third-country supply.

Import unit prices consistently exceed export prices, pointing to differentiated product flows

Throughout the entire period, the EU's import price has remained well above its export price. In 2025, imports averaged €575/t versus €436/t for exports. This gap reflects the higher cost of counter-seasonal supply from the southern hemisphere (New Zealand, Chile) and the premium commanded by shallots, which trade at roughly €1,778/t at import versus €513/t for standard onions (Product Segment Breakdown). The EU, conversely, exports mainly bulk table onions at lower unit values.

2. Import Sourcing Has Geographically Diversified, with Türkiye, Chile, and Peru Emerging as Fast-Growing Suppliers

Egypt is the EU's largest single import partner and has more than doubled its shipments

Egypt supplied €75 million worth of onions to the EU in 2025, up from €32 million in 2015—a 135.4 % increase (top partners by value – imports). Egypt's growth reflects its competitive production costs, proximity to southern European ports, and counter-seasonal harvesting window.

Türkiye, Chile, and Peru have posted spectacular growth rates

Source: top partners by value – imports

Peru's rise is particularly notable: it grew from under €6 million in 2015 to €34 million in 2025, making it the EU's second-largest import partner by value. This growth mirrors Peru's broader expansion in fresh-vegetable exports to Europe. Türkiye's surge may partly reflect re-routing or competitive pricing strategies enabled by the customs union arrangements.

New Zealand and Australia are losing market share

By contrast, New Zealand's exports to the EU fell 21.7 % (€32 million → €25 million), and Australia's collapsed by 69.7 % (€13 million → €4 million). This decline likely reflects growing competition from nearer sources (Egypt, Peru, Chile) and higher trans-oceanic freight costs.

Import concentration has slightly decreased, signalling a more diversified supply base

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 1,753 in 2015 to 1,571 in 2025—a 10.4 % decline (concentration – HHI). While still above the 1,500 threshold sometimes associated with moderate concentration, the trend indicates a gradual diversification of sourcing. Export concentration, conversely, increased by 18.4 % (HHI rising from 1,185 to 1,403), reflecting the growing dominance of the Netherlands.

3. Price Volatility Is Pronounced, with 2022–2023 Marking a Period of Sharp Shocks

Export prices nearly tripled between 2017 and 2023 before partially retreating

The EU's average export price for fresh onions followed a dramatic trajectory: after dipping to €272/t in 2017, it surged to a peak of €701/t in 2023 before falling back to €436/t in 2025 (General Overview – trade). Import prices followed a less dramatic but still notable pattern, rising from €484/t (2018 minimum) to €649/t (2022 peak).

Source: General Overview – trade

Supply-side volatility is highest for newer, smaller suppliers

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values reveals that Türkiye (CV = 0.84), China (CV = 1.64), and Kazakhstan (CV = 1.56) are among the most volatile import partners (volatility bars). Egypt and New Zealand, while much larger, also exhibit meaningful variability (CV ≈ 0.52 and 0.26 respectively). On the export side, flows to West Africa (Senegal, CV = 1.16; Côte d'Ivoire, CV = 0.31) and Brazil (CV = 1.26) are highly variable, reflecting the episodic, harvest-dependent nature of these trade links.

Specific price shocks were detected in 2023, linked to the global food-price crisis

The shock-detection module identifies three notable events (top shock events):

1. Philippines (exports, 2023): A price abnormality of 687.9 with a +60.6 % shift—the most extreme detected—though at a modest 1.5 % value share.
2. United Kingdom (imports, 2023): A +66.1 % price shift with a 5.1 % value share, suggesting that even the EU's closest and most stable trade partner was not insulated from the 2022–23 global price spike.
3. Dominican Republic (exports, 2018): A +66.9 % price shift with a 1.3 % value share.

These events broadly coincide with the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the broader global food-price surge of 2022–2023, which affected fertiliser costs, energy-intensive cold-chain logistics, and agricultural input prices across the EU.

West Africa has become the EU's second-largest export region

Beyond the United Kingdom—which remains the dominant outlet at €187 million in 2025 (+70.2 % over the period, top partners by value – exports)—West African markets have grown markedly. Senegal (€87 million, +95 %), Côte d'Ivoire (€68 million, +229 %), Guinea (€32 million, +130 %), and Mauritania (€21 million, +77 %) together now account for a significant share of EU onion exports. This growth likely reflects rising urban demand in West Africa and the EU's logistical proximity via Atlantic shipping routes. Brazil, once a €52 million destination, has collapsed to under €1 million (−98.9 %), suggesting a structural shift in that market.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU has maintained and even widened its trade surplus in fresh onions and shallots, but the underlying dynamics reveal a market in transition. Import growth (in both volume and value) has significantly outpaced export growth, narrowing the structural gap. The sourcing landscape has diversified: Egypt consolidated its leading position while Türkiye, Chile, and Peru surged, whereas traditional southern-hemisphere suppliers (New Zealand, Australia) retreated. On the export side, the Netherlands' dominance intensified, and West Africa emerged as a fast-growing destination region.

Price volatility has been the defining feature of the most recent years. The 2022–2023 global energy and food-price shock pushed EU export prices to record levels (€701/t in 2023), while import prices peaked in 2022 (€649/t). These price spikes, though partially reversed by 2025, underscore the sensitivity of this perishable-vegetable market to energy costs, logistics disruptions, and weather-related production variability.

Looking ahead, key risks include continued climate-driven yield volatility in both European and southern-hemisphere growing regions, the sustainability of West African demand growth amid macroeconomic uncertainty, and the potential for further sourcing shifts as freight costs and phytosanitary regulations evolve. The moderate decline in import concentration (HHI) is a positive signal for supply resilience, but the rising concentration on the export side—anchored overwhelmingly in the Netherlands—warrants monitoring.