Market evolution: Peppers (CN 070960) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of fresh or chilled fruits of the genus Capsicum or Pimenta (customs code 070960) for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses sweet peppers and other fresh chilli varieties, bundled under sub-codes 07096010, 07096099, 07096091, and 07096095.

Over the decade, the EU's external pepper trade underwent a profound structural transformation. While the EU maintained a trade surplus throughout the period, that surplus narrowed considerably as imports more than doubled in value. Export growth, by contrast, was almost entirely price-driven, with physical volumes remaining broadly flat. Several supplier countries emerged or expanded rapidly, while the export side became increasingly concentrated around the United Kingdom. The following sections explore these dynamics in detail.

1. A Rapidly Expanding Import Base Driven by Mediterranean and Balkan Suppliers

1.1 Import value more than doubled while volumes rose 60 percent

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of fresh peppers from non-EU countries rose from €268.2 million to €568.4 million, an increase of 111.9%. Over the same period, import volumes grew from 224,850 tonnes to 358,686 tonnes (+59.5%), while the average unit price climbed from €1,193/t to €1,585/t (+32.9%). This means that roughly two-thirds of the value increase came from higher quantities and one-third from higher prices, as the overall trade overview confirms.

The bulk of this growth was concentrated in sweet peppers (sub-code 07096010), which accounted for the vast majority of import volumes. Sweet pepper imports rose from 194,938 tonnes in 2015 to 307,384 tonnes in 2025, with their value climbing from €232.7 million to €464.6 million — nearly doubling. Hot peppers and other capsicum varieties (07096099) also grew steadily, from 29,847 tonnes to 51,298 tonnes, with particularly strong price appreciation in recent years.

1.2 Morocco and Türkiye emerged as the dominant suppliers

The two most consequential supplier countries for EU pepper imports are Morocco and Türkiye. Morocco, already the leading supplier in 2015 at €117.9 million, more than doubled its shipments to reach €249.3 million by 2025 (+111.5%). Türkiye's trajectory was even more dramatic: its exports to the EU surged from €57.7 million to €222.6 million, a remarkable increase of 285.6%.

Together, these two countries accounted for over 80% of import value by 2025, up from roughly two-thirds in 2015. The partner breakdown by value illustrates this consolidation clearly:

1.3 Emerging Balkan and North African suppliers added new geographic diversity at the margin

Beyond the two dominant players, several smaller suppliers experienced explosive growth. Albania grew from a negligible €0.4 million to €15.8 million — an increase of nearly 3,800% — while Egypt expanded from €1.4 million to €10.6 million (+685.4%). These reflect broader trends of agricultural investment and EU trade facilitation in the Western Balkans and North Africa.

By contrast, Israel — the third-largest supplier in 2015 at €57.6 million — saw its share collapse to just €22.8 million by 2025 (−60.5%). This decline likely reflects increased competition from Mediterranean neighbours and possible shifts in Israel's own domestic production and export orientation. The volatility data also flags Israel as an unusually volatile supplier, with a coefficient of variation of 0.65 on import values over the period, as shown in the volatility analysis.

2. Price-Led Export Growth and Increasing Market Concentration

2.1 Export values rose sharply, but physical volumes were essentially stagnant

EU exports of fresh peppers to non-EU countries grew from €523.6 million in 2015 to €751.9 million in 2025, a gain of 43.6%. However, export volumes barely moved — from 302,185 tonnes to 306,870 tonnes, an increase of just 1.6%. Virtually all of the value growth was driven by rising unit prices, which climbed from €1,733/t to €2,450/t (+41.4%), as recorded in the general overview.

This price-driven pattern was consistent across sub-products. Sweet pepper (07096010) export volumes moved from 287,010 tonnes to 294,573 tonnes (+2.6%), yet their value rose from €490.3 million to €709.2 million (+44.7%). The unit export price for sweet peppers increased from €1,708/t to €2,408/t. This points to a mature production base in the EU where volume expansion is constrained — likely by land, labour, and climate — but where producers have been able to capture higher values per unit, potentially through quality differentiation, earlier-season production, or shifts in destination markets.

2.2 The United Kingdom became the overwhelmingly dominant export destination

The United Kingdom was by far the EU's largest export market, absorbing €292.4 million in 2015 and €542.3 million in 2025 (+85.5%). By the end of the period, the UK alone accounted for over 72% of total EU pepper export value. The next-largest markets were Switzerland (€95.9 million, +77.2%) and Norway (€65.6 million, +50.3%).

The data reveals a striking collapse in exports to the United States (from €59.5 million to €2.3 million, −96.2%) and Belarus (from €23.0 million to €2.4 million, −89.5%). The US decline is particularly significant in absolute terms and may reflect logistical challenges, shifting competitive dynamics with Latin American suppliers, or changing trade conditions post-Brexit for transhipped goods. Ukraine, meanwhile, emerged as a small but fast-growing destination (+311%).

2.3 Export concentration rose substantially, narrowing the geographic footprint

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU pepper exports by partner rose from 3,475 to 5,460 (+57.1%) over the decade, as shown in the concentration analysis. This increase reflects the growing dominance of the UK market combined with the collapse of formerly significant destinations such as the US and Belarus.

On the import side, concentration also increased but more moderately — the HHI rose from 2,879 to 3,492 (+21.3%). This suggests that while Morocco and Türkiye consolidated their positions, the emergence of smaller suppliers like Albania and Egypt partially offset the concentration effect.

3. Intra-EU Production Shifts and the Specialisation Landscape

3.1 Spain consolidated its role as both the EU's top importer and fastest-growing exporter

Among EU member states, Spain underwent the most dramatic transformation. As an importer, Spain's pepper purchases from non-EU countries surged from €37.1 million to €145.0 million (+290.7%), making it the EU's largest single importing country by 2025. Simultaneously, Spain's exports grew from €112.3 million to €309.0 million (+175.1%), overtaking its earlier position to become the second-largest EU exporter after the Netherlands.

The reporter breakdown reveals this dual role clearly:

Top EU Importers (from non-EU countries):

Top EU Exporters (to non-EU countries):

Spain's trajectory is best understood as an evolution from a purely production-oriented exporter to a re-export and trade hub, channelling peppers from Morocco (via the EU-Morocco Association Agreement) and other Mediterranean suppliers into both the EU internal market and re-export channels. The Netherlands, by contrast, saw its export value increase only modestly (+5.5%), though it remained the EU's single largest exporter at €358.1 million — a position underpinned by its role as Europe's primary fresh produce logistics hub.

3.2 The EU's internal production specialisation is highly concentrated in the south

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a stark divide. Spain held a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.80 and an RCA of 9.16, indicating a very strong specialisation in pepper exports. Spain alone accounted for 53.1% of EU pepper export value. The Netherlands followed with an RSCA of 0.33 and RCA of 2.00, accounting for 29.0% of export value. Together, these two countries controlled over 82% of EU pepper exports by value.

At the other extreme, countries like Ireland (RSCA −1.00), Estonia (−1.00), Finland (−0.98), and Sweden (−0.96) had virtually no export specialisation in peppers, reflecting their climate constraints and the perishable nature of the product.

3.3 Austria and Romania saw the fastest import growth among established EU members

Romania's imports surged from €9.0 million to €63.8 million (+607%), while Austria's rose from €29.7 million to €94.9 million (+219.1%). Both countries likely serve as gateways for peppers sourced from nearby non-EU producers — Romania from Türkiye and the Balkans, and Austria from Türkiye and the broader southern European supply chain. Meanwhile, traditional re-exporters like the Netherlands, Germany, and Slovenia all saw their import values decline, suggesting a redistribution of import entry points within the EU.

Conclusion

The EU pepper market over 2015–2025 was characterised by three broad trends: rapidly growing imports increasingly sourced from Morocco and Türkiye; export growth that was almost entirely price-driven with flat volumes; and a geographic reorientation of trade flows that concentrated both imports and exports around fewer partners and entry points.

The trade surplus, while still positive at €183.5 million in 2025, narrowed by 28.2% from its 2015 level of €255.4 million. Import growth outpaced export growth in both value and volume terms, reflecting the EU's rising consumption demands and the competitive advantages of North African and Turkish producers in terms of cost, climate, and proximity.

Looking ahead, the increasing concentration of exports on the UK market (over 72% of export value) and of imports on Morocco and Türkiye (over 80% of import value) represent both an efficiency gain from established trade relationships and a vulnerability to bilateral trade disruptions. The collapse of exports to the United States and Belarus, and the volatile performance of smaller suppliers like Egypt (CV of 1.13), underline the sensitivity of these flows to geopolitical and logistical factors, as documented in the shock detection analysis.