Market evolution: Sweet peppers (CN 07096010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade flows of fresh or chilled sweet peppers (CN 07096010) involving the European Union as a reporter, with non-EU countries as partners, over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on annual trade data, focusing on value, volume, and price trends to identify the main dynamics shaping the market. The objective is to describe and interpret these trends, highlighting the key shifts in trade partners, supply concentration, and market stability.

1. Asymmetric Growth: The Surge in EU Import Dependency

The period from 2015 to 2025 has been characterized by a significant divergence in the growth trajectories of EU imports and exports. While the EU's export trade grew steadily, import growth was far more pronounced, indicating a rising reliance on external suppliers to meet domestic demand for sweet peppers.

1.1 Import growth has vastly outpaced export growth

The EU's imports of sweet peppers saw explosive growth between 2015 and 2025. The import value nearly doubled, increasing by 99.7% to reach €464.6 million by 2025. Import volume grew by 57.7%, from 194,938 tonnes to 307,384 tonnes. In contrast, EU exports grew at a more modest pace. Export value rose by 44.7% to €709.2 million, and export volume increased by just 2.6% to 294,573 tonnes. This stark difference highlights a growing consumption appetite within the EU that is increasingly satisfied by imports.

Source: General Overview

1.2 Rising import prices reflect structural shifts

The unit value of EU imports also increased significantly, rising by 26.6% from €1,193 to €1,511 per tonne over the decade. This price increase, combined with the volume growth, points to both increased demand and potentially changing sourcing patterns toward suppliers with higher-value products or different cost structures. Meanwhile, export prices rose by a more modest 40.9%, from €1,708 to €2,408 per tonne.

1.3 The trade balance remains positive but has stabilized

Despite the rapid import growth, the EU has maintained a positive trade balance in sweet peppers throughout the period. The balance peaked in 2021 and has since stabilized, ending in 2025 at €244.6 million, a slight 5.0% decrease from the 2015 level. This indicates that while imports are growing, exports have also expanded sufficiently to preserve a net exporter status, though the margin has narrowed.

2. A Reconfigured Supplier Landscape: The Rise of Mediterranean and Balkan Partners

The period witnessed a dramatic reshaping of the EU's import sourcing. Traditional suppliers faced declining shares, while countries in the Mediterranean and Western Balkans experienced phenomenal growth, becoming central to the EU's pepper supply.

2.1 Morocco and Türkiye have become the dominant suppliers

Morocco and Türkiye have cemented their positions as the EU's top two suppliers of sweet peppers. Imports from Morocco doubled in value to €209.7 million, while imports from Türkiye nearly quadrupled, growing by 274.5% to €184.6 million by 2025. This duo now accounts for the vast majority of EU imports by value.

Source: By Country - Partners

2.2 New entrants from the Balkans and North Africa have surged

Beyond the top two, several new or minor suppliers have experienced explosive growth. Imports from Albania surged from a negligible €0.3 million to €14.7 million, an increase of over 4,000%. Egypt also emerged as a significant supplier, with imports growing by 1,258%. North Macedonia and Serbia also showed robust growth, solidifying the Western Balkans as a key source region.

2.3 EU export markets are more concentrated and stable

On the export side, the market is heavily concentrated around key European neighbors. The United Kingdom is the overwhelmingly dominant export destination, absorbing €516.0 million worth of EU peppers in 2025—an 89.8% increase from 2015 and representing over 72% of total EU export value. Switzerland and Norway are the next largest markets, with stable growth. In contrast, exports to traditional markets like the United States, Belarus, and Canada have collapsed.

3. Structural Shifts: Increased Concentration and Divergent Volatility

The trade evolution is accompanied by underlying structural changes in market concentration and stability, which carry implications for supply chain resilience.

3.1 Import and export markets have become more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) measures market concentration. Over the period, the HHI for EU imports by value increased by 19.0%, rising from 3,075 to 3,659. This indicates that sourcing is becoming more concentrated on fewer key suppliers (primarily Morocco and Türkiye). The HHI for exports saw an even sharper increase of 60.9%, reaching 5,540 in 2025, reflecting the growing dominance of the UK market. This rising concentration poses potential risks of supply disruption if trade with these key partners is interrupted.

Source: Concentration

3.2 Export flows are generally more stable than import flows

Analysis of volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV) of trade values, reveals a divergence between import and export partners. EU export flows to major destinations like the United Kingdom (CV: 0.10), Switzerland (0.14), and Norway (0.09) are characterized by low volatility, indicating stable, established trade relationships. In contrast, several key import partners exhibit higher volatility. For instance, trade with Israel (CV: 0.66), Albania (0.61), and particularly Egypt (1.30) is much more variable, suggesting these supply chains may be more susceptible to seasonal, climatic, or geopolitical shocks.

3.3 The internal EU market shows a clear division of labor

An analysis of intra-EU specialization for the year 2025 reveals a distinct geographic production pattern. Spain and the Netherlands are the most specialized EU producers, with revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) indices of 0.81 and 0.32, respectively. They are the major exporters to non-EU markets. In contrast, countries like Ireland, Estonia, and Finland show extremely low specialization (negative RSCA), indicating they are net importers and are not competitive in pepper production. This underscores the intra-EU supply chain where production is concentrated in southern and western Europe, while northern and eastern members are primarily consumers.

Conclusion

The EU sweet peppers market between 2015 and 2025 has been defined by a robust growth in imports, driven by rising demand and a significant reconfiguration of supply chains towards Morocco, Türkiye, and emerging Balkan suppliers. While the EU maintains a trade surplus, its export side is increasingly focused on the United Kingdom. This evolution has led to greater market concentration, raising questions about supply resilience. The stability of export flows contrasts with higher volatility in some import channels, highlighting differing levels of partnership maturity. Overall, the period has solidified the EU's role as a major global hub for sweet peppers, both as a significant importer and a formidable exporter.