Market evolution: Leather footwear (CN 640359) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 640359 covers a broad range of non-ankle-covering leather footwear — from classic men's and women's shoes to strap sandals, slippers, and wooden-base footwear — excluding specialist categories such as sports, orthopaedic, and toy footwear. Over the decade to 2025, the EU's trade in this product has undergone a profound structural transformation. Physical volumes have contracted sharply on both the import and export sides, yet unit values have surged, reflecting a decisive shift toward higher-value production. At the same time, geopolitical shocks — notably Brexit, Russia-related sanctions, and the COVID-19 pandemic — have redrawn the geography of trade, while EU domestic production has shrunk at an even faster pace than trade itself. This report examines these dynamics in three sections, drawing on the overall trade overview and related breakdowns.

1. From Volume to Value: The Premiumisation of EU Leather Footwear Trade

The volume collapse has been dramatic on both sides of the ledger

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's extra-EU trade in leather footwear experienced a striking divergence between physical volumes and recorded values. Export volumes in supplementary units (pairs) fell from 22.6 million to 9.8 million pairs — a decline of 56.6%. Imports contracted even more sharply, from 14.0 million to 5.4 million pairs (−61.6%). In net-mass terms the picture is similar: export tonnage halved (from 17,362 t to 8,491 t) and import tonnage fell by 63% (from 8,360 t to 3,095 t).

Unit prices surged, cushioning the decline in value

Despite this volume collapse, export unit values rose by 85.7% per pair (from €94.69 to €175.85) and by 64.6% per tonne. Import prices followed the same trajectory, climbing 68.7% per pair and 74.8% per tonne. The net result is that export value declined by "only" 19.5% (from €2.14 billion to €1.72 billion), while import value fell 35.1% (from €394.6 million to €256.2 million). The EU maintained a large trade surplus throughout, with the balance narrowing modestly from €1.74 billion to €1.47 billion (−15.9%).

The 2020 pandemic shock and the subsequent cycle are clearly visible

The sharpest single-year disruption came in 2020, when export value fell to an estimated minimum of approximately €1.47 billion and import value dropped to around €275 million — both the lowest points of the decade. A recovery followed in 2022–2023 (export value rebounded to an estimated peak of roughly €2.29 billion in 2023), but this proved temporary: by 2025, both exports and imports had settled back below their pre-pandemic levels.

Within the product mix, strap and cut-out footwear surged while classic shoe categories declined

The product-segment breakdown reveals that the premiumisation trend has not been uniform. On the export side, women's standard footwear (64035999) — the single largest segment — actually shrank from €1.19 billion to €828 million (−30.7%). Men's standard footwear (64035995) fell from €427 million to €239 million (−44.0%). By contrast, footwear with a vamp made of straps or cut-outs (64035911) nearly doubled, rising from €161 million to €294 million — a segment that effectively offset part of the decline elsewhere. On the import side, the same 64035911 category expanded from €22 million to €41 million, while men's standard footwear imports collapsed from €160 million to €43 million.

2. Geopolitical Tremors Have Redrawn the EU's Trade Map

Brexit has significantly disrupted UK–EU leather footwear flows

The United Kingdom, historically one of the EU's most important trade partners for this product, experienced some of the steepest declines on both sides. EU exports to the UK fell from €256.8 million to €139.6 million (−45.6%), while EU imports from the UK dropped from €89.4 million to €42.7 million (−52.2%). The UK also showed the highest import volatility among major partners, with a coefficient of variation of 1.11 — indicating frequent and large year-on-year swings consistent with the structural disruption caused by new customs arrangements post-2020.

Russia's near-complete exit from EU exports stands out as the sharpest partner-level collapse

EU exports to the Russian Federation plunged from €119.9 million to just €25.8 million (−78.5%) — the steepest decline of any major partner. This collapse accelerated sharply from 2022 onwards, aligning with the imposition of EU trade restrictions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Russian market, which accounted for roughly 5.6% of EU leather footwear exports in 2015, represented only 1.5% by 2025.

The United States has cemented its position as the EU's most resilient and valuable export market

In a decade of broadly declining export volumes, the United States stands out as a rare source of stability and even growth. EU exports to the US rose from €526.8 million to €566.0 million (+7.4%), making the US by far the largest single destination, absorbing one-third of all extra-EU leather footwear exports by value. The US also exhibited relatively low volatility (CV of 0.20 for exports), confirming its role as a stable premium market for EU producers.

Switzerland and Hong Kong have seen steep declines, while China has been flat

EU exports to Switzerland — the second-largest market — fell from €326.8 million to €173.1 million (−47.0%), and Hong Kong dropped from €202.3 million to €70.9 million (−65.0%). Meanwhile, exports to mainland China held essentially flat at around €112 million, with relatively low volatility (CV 0.20), suggesting steady demand from Chinese consumers for EU leather footwear.

On the import side, Switzerland, India, and the UK all saw dramatic supply reductions

The EU's import sourcing has shifted markedly. Switzerland, once the largest import source at €130.2 million, fell to €51.6 million (−60.4%). India dropped from €54.4 million to €17.3 million (−68.2%). The UK, as noted, halved. Only China among the top seven import partners showed relative resilience, declining just 11.6% to €28.8 million. Türkiye was the most stable source overall, falling only 3.3% to €9.5 million.

Import concentration has fallen substantially, while export concentration has risen

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for imports (by value) fell from 1,906 to 1,082 (−43.2%), indicating that import sourcing has become significantly more diversified. By contrast, the export HHI rose from 1,198 to 1,485 (+24.0%), reflecting the growing dominance of the US market and the loss of smaller export destinations. This divergence implies reduced supply-side risk on the import front but increased demand-side concentration risk for EU exporters.

3. A Shrinking Production Base and the Deepening of Export Specialisation

EU domestic production of leather footwear has contracted far more severely than trade

The EU production data reveal a decline that outpaces the trade contraction. Output in supplementary units fell from 539.5 million pairs to 200.1 million pairs (−62.9%), while production value dropped from €10.9 billion to €8.9 billion (−18.1%). The fact that volume fell much faster than value again points to premiumisation within domestic production — fewer pairs, but at higher average prices.

Italy remains the dominant EU producer and exporter, but its weight is declining

Italian exports of CN 640359 fell from €1.61 billion to €1.06 billion (−34.5%), yet Italy still accounts for over 61% of extra-EU exports by value. Italy's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) stands at 0.72, confirming a strong specialisation in this product. Italy accounted for 48.6% of all EU leather footwear production by value in the most recent year.

France and Germany have bucked the declining trend, while the Netherlands has emerged as a fast-growing re-exporter

French exports grew 34.6% from €281.8 million to €379.3 million, consolidating France's position as the second-largest EU exporter. Germany's exports surged 76.5%, from €48.1 million to €84.9 million. Most strikingly, Dutch exports rose from €7.5 million to €51.8 million (+591.2%), almost certainly reflecting the Netherlands' role as a logistics and re-export hub rather than a shift in genuine production. By contrast, Spain (−25.9%) and Portugal (−34.0%) — both historically significant leather footwear producers — saw their exports decline.

Export specialisation is increasingly concentrated in Southern Europe

The specialisation data for 2025 show that Portugal (RSCA 0.785, RCA 8.30) and Italy (RSCA 0.717, RCA 6.07) are by far the most specialised EU producers in leather footwear. France (RSCA 0.293) and Spain (RSCA 0.263) occupy a middle tier. At the other extreme, Ireland (RSCA −0.971), Finland (−0.956), and Slovenia (−0.925) show near-zero or negative specialisation, indicating that their economies are essentially uninvolved in this product's value chain.

The EU's net-exporter position has deepened, driven by collapsing imports rather than export strength

The net import reliance moved from −15.7% in 2015 to −27.3% in 2025 (a negative value indicates a net-export position). This deepening does not reflect booming exports — which fell in absolute terms — but rather the even sharper collapse of imports. The EU is producing and exporting fewer leather shoes, but it is also importing far fewer, resulting in a relatively larger net-export surplus. This dynamic is consistent with a market in which the remaining EU producers have focused on higher-value, domestically-made products, while lower-cost imports have been squeezed out.

Conclusion

The EU's leather footwear trade (CN 640359) over the 2015–2025 period tells a story of contraction, premiumisation, and geographic realignment. Physical trade volumes have roughly halved on both the export and import sides, but surging unit prices — up 86% per exported pair — have partially cushioned the value impact. The product mix has shifted noticeably, with strap and cut-out footwear gaining ground at the expense of classic shoe categories. Geopolitically, Brexit and Russia-related sanctions have cost the EU two formerly significant markets, while the United States has emerged as the single indispensable destination, absorbing one-third of export value. EU domestic production has declined even more steeply than trade, and the industry's centre of gravity has tilted further toward Italy, France, and a handful of specialised Southern European producers. Going forward, the combination of shrinking volumes, rising prices, and growing concentration on a small number of high-value markets suggests an industry that is becoming more specialised — and potentially more vulnerable to demand shocks in its key destinations.