Market evolution: Women's leather shoes (CN 64035999) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's external trade in women's leather shoes (CN 64035999) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers women's footwear with outer soles and uppers of leather, with in-soles of at least 24 cm in length, excluding ankle-covering models, sports footwear, orthopaedic footwear, and several other sub-categories. The EU has historically been a major net exporter of this product, leveraging the reputation of European — and especially Italian — craftsmanship. However, the decade under review reveals a profound structural transformation: physical trade volumes have collapsed dramatically, while unit values have surged, reflecting a decisive move toward premium positioning. At the same time, EU domestic production has contracted sharply in quantity terms, and the trade geography has been reshaped by geopolitical shocks, Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Product overview on the Trade Dashboard
1. A Decade of Collapsing Volumes and Soaring Unit Values
EU exports fell by over 60% in pair count while nearly doubling in price per pair
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between physical volumes and declared values. EU extra-EU exports of CN 64035999 dropped from 11.9 million pairs in 2015 to just 4.3 million pairs in 2025 — a decline of 63.5%. Over the same period, the average export unit price (per pair) rose from €100.5 to €191.1, an increase of 90.2%. In value terms, exports therefore declined by a more moderate 30.7%, from €1.19 billion to €828 million.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€ billion) | 1.194 | 0.828 | −30.7% |
| Export quantity (pairs, millions) | 11.9 | 4.3 | −63.5% |
| Export unit price (€/pair) | 100.5 | 191.1 | +90.2% |
| Import value (€ million) | 117.0 | 112.4 | −3.9% |
| Import quantity (pairs, millions) | 2.5 | 1.5 | −41.1% |
| Import unit price (€/pair) | 46.1 | 75.3 | +63.2% |
| Trade surplus (€ billion) | 1.077 | 0.716 | −33.6% |
EU domestic production collapsed even more sharply in volume terms
The decline in export volumes mirrors an even steeper contraction in EU production. According to the Prodcom data mapped to this CN code, EU production fell from 213.1 million pairs in 2015 to 78.5 million pairs in 2025 — a drop of 63.2%. Production value declined by only 15.0%, from €5.35 billion to €4.55 billion, again confirming a massive repricing toward higher-value products. This pattern is consistent with the well-documented structural shift whereby lower-value, mass-market leather shoe production has increasingly relocated outside the EU, while the remaining European output has concentrated on premium and luxury segments.
The EU became structurally more dependent on external trade for this product
The combination of declining production and relatively resilient export values pushed the EU's trade intensity (exports as a share of production value) from 57.1% in 2015 to 100.5% in 2025, while export propensity surged from 45.3% to 100.9%. This means that by 2025, EU exports to non-EU countries were roughly equal in value to total domestic production — a striking indicator of how the industry's remaining footprint is oriented toward global markets rather than intra-EU or domestic consumption. Meanwhile, the EU remained a consistent net exporter throughout the period: net import reliance stayed negative (ranging from −34.7% to +2.7%), confirming that the EU retained its competitive edge in this product category despite the volume erosion.
2. Geopolitical Shocks and the Reorientation of Trade Partners
The United States remained the anchor market, but Russia and Hong Kong saw dramatic collapses
The United States has been the EU's single largest export destination for women's leather shoes throughout the period, absorbing €280 million in 2015 and €259 million in 2025 (a modest decline of 7.6%). By contrast, several other key markets experienced far more severe contractions:
| Export destination | 2015 (€ million) | 2025 (€ million) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 280.2 | 258.9 | −7.6% |
| Switzerland | 187.1 | 114.5 | −38.8% |
| United Kingdom | 128.2 | 60.7 | −52.7% |
| China | 76.4 | 64.6 | −15.4% |
| Hong Kong | 131.1 | 36.4 | −72.2% |
| Japan | 52.6 | 44.0 | −16.3% |
| Russian Federation | 74.0 | 13.8 | −81.3% |
The collapse of EU exports to Russia (−81.3%) is the most dramatic, largely explained by the imposition of EU sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, compounded by earlier trade disruptions. A notable price shock was detected in the Russia export flow as early as 2018 (abnormality score of 44.0, with a 19.4% unit price shift), suggesting pre-existing trade tensions or compositional changes. The Hong Kong decline (−72.2%) likely reflects the combined effects of the 2019–2020 social unrest, COVID-19 disruptions, and the broader decline of Hong Kong as a re-export hub for luxury goods destined for mainland China.
The United Kingdom emerged as a particularly volatile partner post-Brexit
EU exports to the United Kingdom fell by 52.7% over the period, from €128.2 million to €60.7 million, with a minimum of €53.8 million recorded in a recent year. The volatility analysis confirms the UK as one of the most unstable export markets, with a coefficient of variation of 0.55. On the import side, the UK is also the third-largest source of extra-EU imports (€15.9 million in 2025, down 41.3% from 2015), and shows the highest import volatility among the top partners at a coefficient of variation of 0.85. These patterns are consistent with the introduction of customs formalities, rules-of-origin requirements, and the general disruption to supply chains caused by Brexit from 2021 onward.
Import sources diversified significantly, with Switzerland and China dominating
On the import side, Switzerland is by far the largest supplier (€28.2 million in 2025, down 36.6% from €44.6 million in 2015), reflecting the importance of Swiss-made luxury footwear. China (€10.1 million) and the United Kingdom (€15.9 million) follow. The most notable import-side declines came from Morocco (−88.2%) and Brazil (−63.4%), both of which saw imports collapse from around €4 million in 2015 to below €2 million by 2025. Morocco's dramatic decline is particularly striking given its geographical proximity to the EU and its established role in leather goods manufacturing.
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by partner fell from 2,197 in 2015 to 1,308 in 2025 (−40.5%), indicating a meaningful diversification of import sources. By contrast, export concentration rose from 1,172 to 1,436 (+22.5%), as exports became more focused on fewer, more reliable premium markets.
Import concentration | Export concentration
Price shocks were detected in multiple partner flows
Several notable supply-side and price shocks were identified in the data:
| Partner | Flow | Year | Type | Shift | Abnormality | Value share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russian Federation | Exports | 2018 | Price | +19.4% | 44.0 | 4.6% |
| Türkiye | Imports | 2023 | Price | +84.1% | 10.9 | 2.8% |
| Canada | Exports | 2021 | Price | +43.2% | 8.5 | 2.6% |
The Türkiye import price shock of 2023 (+84.1%) coincides with the severe inflation and currency depreciation in Turkey, which raised the euro-denominated cost of Turkish-origin goods. The Canada export price shock in 2021 may reflect post-COVID demand recovery and compositional shifts toward higher-value shipments.
3. Italy's Dominance and the Increasingly Lopsided EU Export Structure
Italy accounts for the majority of EU exports but has seen the largest absolute decline
Italy's role in EU exports of women's leather shoes is overwhelming. In 2025, Italy alone represented €558 million of the €828 million total — approximately 67% of all extra-EU exports by value. Italy also has the highest revealed comparative advantage among EU member states, with an RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) of 0.76 and an RCA of 7.38.
| EU Member State | 2015 exports (€ million) | 2025 exports (€ million) | Change | RSCA (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 930.4 | 558.0 | −40.0% | 0.76 |
| France | 152.8 | 150.2 | −1.8% | 0.22 |
| Spain | 75.4 | 43.0 | −43.0% | 0.20 |
| Germany | 15.9 | 42.8 | +169.9% | — |
| Netherlands | 3.4 | 15.9 | +372.6% | — |
| Portugal | 9.6 | 7.0 | −26.9% | 0.64 |
Specialisation | Top reporters
France held steady while Germany and the Netherlands emerged as surprising gainers
While Italy, Spain, and Portugal — the traditional leather footwear powerhouses — all saw significant export declines, two countries bucked the trend. Germany's exports nearly tripled, rising from €15.9 million to €42.8 million (+169.9%), while the Netherlands surged from €3.4 million to €15.9 million (+372.6%). These gains likely reflect the growing role of these countries as logistics and re-export hubs, or the emergence of German and Dutch brands in the premium leather shoe segment. France, the second-largest exporter, was notably resilient, with only a 1.8% decline (from €152.8 million to €150.2 million), underscoring the enduring strength of French luxury footwear houses.
France and Germany diverge on the import side
Among EU importers of extra-EU women's leather shoes, France remains the largest (€30.0 million in 2025), though its imports declined by 33.3% from 2015. Italy, interestingly, increased its imports by 10.6%, reaching €35.2 million in 2025 — possibly reflecting sourcing of component parts or lower-end models from non-EU suppliers for finishing in Italy. Germany's imports surged by 72.9% to €20.4 million, mirroring its export growth and suggesting an increasing role in processing and re-exporting.
Export concentration increased, signalling growing dependence on fewer, premium markets
The rising export HHI (from 1,172 to 1,436) combined with Italy's dominant share indicates that the EU's export base for women's leather shoes has become more concentrated. This creates a potential vulnerability: any disruption to demand in the US or Swiss markets — which together absorb over 45% of EU exports — would have an outsized impact. The volatility coefficients confirm this concern: while the US market is relatively stable (CV of 0.21), Switzerland (CV 0.50), the UK (CV 0.55), and especially Russia (CV 0.62) showed significant instability.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in women's leather shoes (CN 64035999) over the 2015–2025 decade tells a story of radical transformation rather than simple decline. Physical volumes — in both production and trade — have fallen by roughly 60–63%, but unit values have nearly doubled, pointing to an industry that has shed mass-market manufacturing in favour of premium and luxury positioning. The EU remains a decisive net exporter (surplus of €716 million in 2025), but the trade landscape has been reshaped by Brexit, sanctions on Russia, the erosion of Hong Kong's re-export role, and COVID-19. Italy continues to dominate, accounting for two-thirds of exports, while France has proven remarkably resilient and Germany has emerged as a surprising growth story. Importantly, the EU's export base has become more concentrated (higher HHI) even as its import sources have diversified — a structural asymmetry that warrants attention from a trade resilience perspective. Looking ahead, the industry's reliance on a narrow set of high-income markets and a single dominant exporter (Italy) represents both a strength — rooted in unmatched brand equity — and a vulnerability in an era of geopolitical uncertainty.