Market evolution: Men's leather shoes (CN 64035995) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in men's leather footwear (Combined Nomenclature code 64035995) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers men's shoes with outer soles and uppers of leather, with in-soles of at least 24 cm in length, excluding ankle-covering models, safety footwear, wooden-base footwear, strap-based designs, indoor/sports/orthopaedic variants. It corresponds closely to Prodcom code 15.20.13.51 ("Men's town footwear with leather uppers").
The decade under review has been marked by profound structural shifts. EU extra-bloc trade in this product category contracted sharply in volume terms, yet unit values rose markedly, suggesting a strategic pivot toward higher-value segments. At the same time, the geography of trade was reshaped by Brexit, supply-chain disruptions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical realignments following 2022. Production within the EU itself underwent a dramatic contraction in pair counts, though the value decline was far more moderate. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.
1. A Volume Collapse Masking a Value-Preserving Upmarket Shift
EU exports lost two-thirds of their pair count but less than half their value
Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of men's leather shoes to non-EU countries fell from 4,485,926 pairs to 1,478,348 pairs — a decline of 67.0%. In value terms, the drop was less steep: export revenue declined from €427.2 million to €238.5 million (–44.2%). The gap between these two figures is explained by a surge in unit values, which rose from €95.23 per pair to €161.34 per pair (+69.4%).
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (EUR) | 427,212,712 | 238,515,311 | –44.2% |
| Export quantity (pairs) | 4,485,926 | 1,478,348 | –67.0% |
| Export price (EUR/pair) | 95.23 | 161.34 | +69.4% |
| Export quantity (tonnes) | 4,573 | 1,758 | –61.6% |
| Export price (EUR/tonne) | 93,408 | 135,589 | +45.2% |
EU imports experienced an even steeper collapse
Imports tell a similar but more dramatic story. Inbound shipments fell from 2,914,497 pairs to 596,278 pairs (–79.5%) in quantity, and from €160.3 million to €42.5 million (–73.5%) in value. The import unit price rose from €55.0 per pair to €71.3 per pair (+29.7%), reflecting both quality upgrading and input-cost inflation.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (EUR) | 160,276,164 | 42,526,896 | –73.5% |
| Import quantity (pairs) | 2,914,497 | 596,278 | –79.5% |
| Import price (EUR/pair) | 54.99 | 71.32 | +29.7% |
| Import quantity (tonnes) | 2,821 | 599 | –78.8% |
| Import price (EUR/tonne) | 56,823 | 70,891 | +24.8% |
The EU has remained a consistent net exporter throughout
Despite both sides contracting, the EU maintained a positive trade balance (exports exceeding imports) in every year of the period. The surplus narrowed from €266.9 million in 2015 to €196.0 million in 2025 (–26.6%). The net import reliance ratio — which is negative when the bloc is a net exporter — fluctuated between –11.8% and +8.1%, ending at –9.9% in 2025. The brief moment of positive net import reliance (indicating a trade deficit) likely corresponds to the shock years around 2020, when export demand was more severely affected than import flows.
Domestic production mirrors the volume collapse but preserves value
EU production data tells a complementary story: pair output plunged from 154.5 million to 49.5 million (–67.9%), yet production value fell only from €3.43 billion to €2.80 billion (–18.4%). This implies a near-doubling of the average production value per pair, consistent with a strategic shift by European manufacturers toward premium, higher-margin products — or, alternatively, the exit of lower-value producers from the market.
2. Brexit, Geopolitics, and the Reshaping of Trade Geography
The United Kingdom's role in EU trade has been transformed by Brexit
The UK was the second-largest EU export destination in 2015 (€70.0 million) and the second-largest import supplier (€33.6 million). By 2025, UK-bound exports had fallen to €19.4 million (–72.3%), and UK-origin imports had declined to €14.4 million (–57.0%). While the absolute decline is partly cyclical, the scale of the drop — far exceeding the general trend — points strongly to the impact of the UK's departure from the EU customs union and single market. New customs procedures, rules-of-origin requirements, and the loss of frictionless trade have raised the effective cost of UK-EU shoe trade, disproportionately affecting this product given its relatively high unit value and complex supply chains.
Switzerland transitioned from a dominant import source to a marginal one
Switzerland was the single largest import supplier in 2015 at €77.4 million — nearly half of all EU imports by value. By 2025, this had collapsed to €5.3 million (–93.1%). This extraordinary decline likely reflects changes in trade recording practices (Switzerland's role as a re-export hub or customs-processing centre may have been reclassified), shifts in sourcing patterns, or the redirection of supply chains away from Swiss intermediaries. The coefficient of variation for Swiss imports (0.73) confirms substantial year-to-year volatility.
Tunisia's near-total exit from EU supply chains
Tunisia, once a significant import source (€5.4 million in 2015, peaking at €7.5 million), has essentially disappeared from the data, registering just €88,166 in 2025 (–98.4%). This is consistent with broader trends in North African offshoring, where political instability, rising labour costs, and competition from Asian producers have eroded the region's position in EU footwear supply chains.
China is the only major import partner that gained ground
Against the general downward trend, China's exports to the EU in this category actually grew from €2.4 million to €3.4 million (+39.0%). While still a small share of total EU imports, this makes China a notable outlier. Chinese unit prices also rose sharply — the data reports a price shock with an abnormality score of 52.5 and a price shift of +165.9% centred on 2023, suggesting a rapid move into higher-value Chinese leather footwear, possibly reflecting upgrading in Chinese manufacturing capabilities.
The United States remains the EU's top export market
The US absorbed €104.5 million of EU exports in 2015 and €69.8 million in 2025 (–33.2%). The decline was more moderate than for most other partners, and the US retained its position as the EU's single largest export destination throughout. Russia, by contrast, saw exports collapse from €22.3 million to €4.7 million (–79.1%), almost certainly linked to sanctions imposed after 2022.
Import concentration has fallen, while export concentration has edged up
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration dropped from 3,005 to 1,682 (–44.0%), indicating a significant diversification away from the earlier heavy reliance on Switzerland. The export HHI rose modestly from 1,179 to 1,297 (+10.0%), reflecting a slight increase in concentration toward the US and a few other key markets as smaller destinations fell away. The volatility data confirms that some export partners — notably the UK (CV 0.67) and Russia (CV 0.63) — displayed highly unstable trade patterns over the period.
3. Italy Dominates Production and Exports, While the Netherlands Emerges as a Logistics Hub
Italy is the undisputed centre of EU leather-shoe production and exports
In 2025, Italian production accounted for 32.0% of EU output by value, and Italian firms exported €160.4 million — fully 67.2% of total EU extra-bloc exports. Italy's Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) score of 0.60 confirms strong specialisation. Italy's own export decline (–44.8%) mirrors the sectoral trend, but its market share has likely increased in relative terms as smaller producing countries exited or contracted faster.
Portugal, Spain, and France form the second tier of specialised producers
Portugal shows the highest specialisation of any EU member state (RSCA 0.89, RCA 17.62), reflecting its deep expertise in leather footwear manufacturing. However, Portuguese exports fell sharply from €23.9 million to €6.9 million (–71.1%), suggesting that smaller, more specialised producers bore a disproportionate share of the volume contraction. Spain (RSCA 0.58) and France (RSCA 0.04) also feature prominently in production, with France remaining the largest EU import market at €10.0 million in 2025 (down from €89.3 million in 2015, a decline of –88.8%).
The Netherlands has emerged as a major export hub
Perhaps the most striking change among EU reporters is the Netherlands, whose exports surged from €1.8 million to €12.7 million — an extraordinary increase of 592.9%. Given that the Netherlands has no comparative advantage in leather-shoe production, this almost certainly reflects the growing role of Dutch logistics infrastructure (particularly the Port of Rotterdam and Schiphol Airport) as a re-export and distribution hub. Goods produced elsewhere in the EU — or imported and re-exported — are increasingly recorded as Dutch exports.
Trade intensity and export propensity have both surged
Two indicators highlight the EU's growing orientation toward external markets for this product. Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production value) rose from 51.9% to 89.2% (+72.0%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production value) climbed from 38.4% to 81.4% (+111.8%). These figures suggest that as EU production contracted in volume, the remaining output became increasingly export-oriented — a pattern consistent with the upmarket shift described above. European producers appear to be focusing on high-value shoes destined for global luxury and premium markets, while lower-value domestic demand is increasingly met through imports or has simply diminished.
Conclusion
The EU market for men's leather footwear (CN 64035995) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Trade volumes — both exports and imports — have collapsed by 67–80% in pair terms, yet unit values have risen substantially (+69% for exports, +30% for imports). The EU has maintained its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus narrowing only modestly in relative terms. Production within the EU has shifted decisively toward higher-value output, with pair counts down 68% but production value down only 18%.
Geographically, Brexit has fundamentally altered UK-EU trade flows, the near-disappearance of Switzerland as an import source has driven a sharp diversification of supply, and sanctions have all but severed the EU's export relationship with Russia. Italy remains the dominant force in both production and exports, while the Netherlands has emerged as an unexpected but significant logistics and re-export hub. The remaining production base is increasingly specialised and export-oriented, with trade intensity and export propensity both reaching historically high levels by 2025.
Looking ahead, the sector faces a dual challenge: sustaining its premium positioning in an increasingly competitive global market while navigating continued geopolitical uncertainty — from US trade policy to the evolving regulatory environment in key Asian markets. The data suggests that the EU's leather-shoe industry has successfully adapted by moving upmarket, but the dramatic volume losses raise questions about the long-term viability of the production base if current trends persist.