Market evolution: Leather ankle boots (CN 640391) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in leather ankle boots (Combined Nomenclature code 640391) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers footwear with outer soles of rubber, plastics or composition leather, with leather uppers, covering the ankle — a category that spans men's, women's, and unisex segments. Over the decade examined, the EU's trade in this product underwent three major transformations: a structural decline in traded volumes accompanied by a sharp rise in unit values; a profound reshuffling of the EU's main trading partners; and a significant erosion of domestic production that pushed trade intensity and export propensity to historically high levels. The analysis draws on trade flows, partner concentration, production data, and shock detection to reconstruct these dynamics.

1. Shrinking volumes, rising values: the premiumisation of EU leather ankle boot trade

The overall picture reveals a paradox: fewer goods crossing borders at higher prices

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of leather ankle boots fell from €2.17 billion to €1.69 billion in value (−22.1%), while EU exports declined from €1.32 billion to €1.11 billion (−16.0%). In volume terms, the contraction was far steeper: import quantities in tonnes fell by 27.7% and export quantities by 42.4%. In terms of pairs, the picture is even more dramatic — imports dropped from 110.5 million pairs to 69.9 million pairs (−36.8%), and exports from 27.7 million pairs to 13.5 million pairs (−51.3%).

The data thus reveals a clear premiumisation: what the EU trades in this category is increasingly expensive per unit, even as the physical quantities shrink. Export unit values rose far more steeply (+72.3% per pair) than import unit values (+23.1% per pair), indicating that the EU is progressively specialising in higher-end segments while lower-value volume migrates away.

The EU's trade deficit narrowed significantly but persists

The trade balance improved from −€856 million in 2015 to −€587 million in 2025, a 31.4% improvement. The deficit was at its narrowest in 2020 (−€216 million), a year when COVID-19 suppressed imports more than exports. However, the deficit widened again in 2022 before narrowing toward 2025. The persistent negative balance confirms that the EU remains a net importer of leather ankle boots in value terms, even as imports and exports converge.

A post-pandemic surge in 2022 disrupted the downward trend

Across both imports and exports, 2022 stands out as an anomaly. Import volumes surged — driven in part by restocking after COVID-19 disruptions and supply-chain backlogs — with import value reaching €2.43 billion, the highest in the entire period. For several product sub-segments, the 2022 spike is striking: women's ankle boots (64039118) saw imports jump to nearly 40,000 tonnes, compared to roughly 24,000–27,000 tonnes in adjacent years. The spike was temporary, and volumes reverted to their declining trajectory by 2023.

Product-level data confirms the volume-to-value shift across sub-categories

The product segment breakdown reveals that the premiumisation effect is widespread. On the import side, the two largest sub-categories — women's ankle boots not covering the calf (64039118) and men's equivalent (64039116) — both saw volume declines but with prices per pair rising from €23.16 to €24.08 and from €22.25 to €25.65, respectively. The unidentifiable-gender category (64039113) experienced the most dramatic collapse: import volumes in tonnes fell from 32,343 to 13,402 (−58.6%), while unit prices per pair rose from €14.80 to €24.40 (+64.9%), suggesting that cheaper, mass-market sourcing in this sub-category was disproportionately affected.

On the export side, EU exporters commanded substantially higher prices across the board. The per-pair export price for women's ankle boots (64039118) rose from €46.00 to €87.54 (+90.3%), and for men's boots (64039116) from €47.72 to €85.84 (+79.9%). These increases far outpace the corresponding import price rises, confirming that EU exporters are moving upmarket.

2. A dramatic realignment of trading partners

Indonesia's collapse and Vietnam's resilience reshaped the import supply base

The most striking development on the import side is the near-total collapse of Indonesia as an EU supplier. Indonesia's exports to the EU fell from €296 million in 2015 to just €71 million in 2025, a 75.9% decline. The shock detection analysis identifies a major price shock centred on 2019, with an abnormality score of 6.4 and a unit-value shift of +96.2%. This timing coincides with the EU's partial withdrawal of GSP (Generalised Scheme of Preferences) tariff preferences for Indonesia, which raised effective duties on footwear exports. The coefficient of variation for Indonesia's trade flows is an extremely high 0.86, confirming the instability of this supply channel.

While Indonesia collapsed, Vietnam remained remarkably stable, consolidating its position as the EU's second-largest supplier at €376 million. Vietnam also experienced a notable price shock in 2019 (+7.4%, abnormality 2.6), but its overall trade relationship proved far more resilient. Meanwhile, Cambodia grew by 66.0% to €61 million, and China, though declining modestly, remained the largest single supplier at €413 million. The share of Indonesia was partly absorbed by these and other South-East Asian producers.

Bosnia and Herzegovina, the only European non-EU supplier among the top seven, saw imports decline by 44.8% — consistent with a broader trend of EU nearshoring not materialising in this product category at scale.

Brexit and geopolitical sanctions transformed the EU's export geography

On the export side, the most consequential change was the collapse of exports to the United Kingdom, which fell from €430 million to €189 million (−56.2%). This decline accelerated sharply after 2020, consistent with the UK's departure from the EU Single Market and the introduction of customs formalities, rules-of-origin requirements, and non-tariff barriers from January 2021. The coefficient of variation for UK-bound exports stands at 0.39 — the highest among EU export destinations.

Exports to the Russian Federation fell from €148 million to €60 million (−59.7%), with the sharpest drops occurring from 2022 onward following EU sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The volatility of this trade flow (CV = 0.31) confirms its geopolitical fragility.

By contrast, Switzerland (+43.3%) and Türkiye (+52.2%) emerged as growing markets. Switzerland's growth is partly attributable to its geographic proximity, high purchasing power, and a stable regulatory framework. Türkiye's rise may reflect both re-export dynamics and growing demand from its own consumer market. The United States remained a stable destination at €190 million.

Import concentration increased while export concentration fell

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose by 18.6%, from 1,231 to 1,461. While still below the 2,500 threshold typically associated with a "highly concentrated" market, this upward trend signals growing dependence on fewer supplying countries — particularly China, Vietnam, and India, which together account for the bulk of import value. The consolidation of supply in fewer hands increases the EU's exposure to country-specific disruptions.

Conversely, the export HHI declined by 26.6%, from 1,583 to 1,163, indicating that the EU's export destinations became more diversified. The loss of the dominant UK market paradoxically led to a healthier distribution of exports across multiple partners.

3. Domestic production erosion and the EU's growing trade exposure

EU leather ankle boot production collapsed in volume even as its value remained large

The production data reveals the most dramatic structural shift in the entire dataset. EU production in pairs plummeted from 423.9 million pairs in 2015 to 139.4 million pairs in 2025, a collapse of 67.1%. In value terms, the decline was more moderate — from €9.54 billion to €7.64 billion (−19.9%) — confirming that the remaining EU production is concentrated in higher-value segments. The minimum production value of €7.18 billion was reached in 2022, likely a lagged effect of COVID-19 disruptions on European manufacturing.

This collapse in production volume is the key driver behind the remarkable increase in trade intensity, which rose from 54.8% to 97.4% (+77.7%), and export propensity, which surged from 41.9% to 95.2% (+127.4%). As domestic production contracted, the EU economy's dependence on international trade in this product category intensified dramatically.

Italy remains the EU's production and export powerhouse, but its dominance is eroding

Among EU Member States, Italy continues to display the highest degree of specialisation (RSCA = 0.23, RCA = 1.60), accounting for 12.8% of EU production and 8.0% of total trade in this product. Italy was the EU's largest exporter throughout the period, though its export value fell from €454 million to €364 million (−19.6%). Portugal (RSCA = 0.61) and Croatia (RSCA = 0.75) show even stronger relative specialisation, though on a smaller absolute scale. At the other end, Germany emerged as a rising exporter (+48.6% to €275 million), overtaking several traditional producers, while Poland showed robust growth in both imports (+134.9% to €101 million) and exports (+58.4% to €76 million), reflecting its growing role as a manufacturing and re-export hub within the EU.

EU import reliance remained moderate but its structure is shifting

The net import reliance remained negative throughout the period (from −15.2% to −14.9%), indicating that — when domestic production is factored in — the EU is a net exporter in this category, albeit marginally. The ratio hit its most negative point (−18.7%) around 2019–2020, when pandemic effects temporarily depressed imports while production held. The subsequent return toward −14.9% by 2025 suggests that as production volumes collapsed, the EU's self-sufficiency cushion has thinned. This is corroborated by the surge in trade intensity and export propensity, both of which indicate that the EU's leather ankle boot sector is now far more dependent on global trade flows than it was a decade ago.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in leather ankle boots (CN 640391) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation on multiple fronts. Physical volumes — measured in both tonnes and pairs — declined substantially across both imports and exports, but this contraction was accompanied by a marked increase in unit values, pointing to a sector-wide shift toward higher-priced, more premium products. The EU's trade deficit narrowed by 31.4%, but this improvement was driven more by the faster decline of imports than by export dynamism.

The geography of trade was reshaped by three forces: the effective exclusion of Indonesia following GSP changes (−75.9%), the UK's departure from the EU Single Market (−56.2% of exports), and EU sanctions on Russia (−59.7% of exports). These losses were partly offset by the resilience of Vietnam, the growth of Cambodia and Türkiye, and the stability of the US and Swiss markets. Import concentration rose modestly while export destinations diversified.

Perhaps the most consequential long-term development is the 67.1% collapse in EU production volume, which has pushed trade intensity to nearly 100% and export propensity above 95%. The EU's leather ankle boot sector is becoming less of a self-sufficient manufacturing base and more of a trade-dependent, high-value-added niche — with all the vulnerability to supply disruptions and geopolitical shifts that this entails.