Market evolution: Leather shoes (CN 640399) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in leather shoes (customs code 640399) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's position in the global market for this product, characterized by a shift from being a net importer to a net exporter, significant structural changes in production and trade partners, and the market's response to major external shocks. The analysis covers overall trade flows, market structure, and the underlying product dynamics.

1. The EU's Transition to a Net Exporter

Over the period, the EU's trade balance for leather footwear underwent a dramatic reversal, moving from a deficit to a substantial surplus. This shift was driven by robust export growth outpacing more moderate import increases.

Exports grew significantly faster than imports.

EU exports of leather shoes increased by 75.0% in value, from €3.06 billion in 2015 to €5.35 billion in 2025. In contrast, imports grew by 21.2%, rising from €3.95 billion to €4.79 billion. This divergent growth trajectory directly caused the trade balance to swing from a deficit of €894 million in 2015 to a surplus of €560 million in 2025.

Export price appreciation indicates a move upmarket.

The increase in export value was driven by both higher volumes and significantly higher prices. While the quantity (in tonnes) exported rose by 17.8%, the average price per tonne surged by 48.6%. This suggests EU exporters are increasingly focusing on higher-value leather footwear segments.

The United States became the EU's primary export market.

The most dramatic shift in export destinations was the surge in sales to the United States, which grew by 133.1% in value to become the EU's top non-EU export destination by 2025. Conversely, exports to the United Kingdom, traditionally the largest market, declined by 10.1%, though it remains significant. A notable development was the 367.8% increase in exports to China, albeit from a lower base, indicating new market opportunities.

EU Top Export Partners by Value (€ millions)

Source: Top partners by value

2. Declining Domestic Production and Regional Specialization

The EU's improved trade balance occurred despite a steep contraction in domestic leather shoe production, highlighting a strategic shift in the industry's structure and geography.

EU production volumes collapsed.

Over the decade, EU production quantity (in pairs) fell by 62.9%, from 539.5 million pairs to 200.1 million pairs. Production value also declined by 18.1%, indicating that remaining production has pivoted towards higher-value items, but cannot offset the volume loss. This underscores a continued offshoring of mass-market leather shoe manufacturing.

Southern and Central European member states dominate exports.

The analysis of specialisation confirms that traditional leather goods hubs remain core. Italy is the undisputed leader, accounting for 38% of EU export value in 2025 (€2.05bn). It is followed by Germany and France, whose export shares grew substantially. Poland also emerged as a significant exporter, growing by 250%.

Import sourcing is becoming more concentrated.

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value increased by 31.9%, from 1,343 to 1,772. While still indicating a moderately competitive market, this trend points to growing reliance on fewer major supplying countries. Vietnam has emerged as the dominant supplier, with imports growing by 92.1% to €1.48 billion, nearly surpassing China.

EU Top Import Partners by Value (€ millions)

Source: Top partners by value

3. Navigating External Shocks and Evolving Product Mix

The period was marked by significant disruptions that reshaped trade flows, while the composition of traded footwear revealed underlying trends in consumer demand and supply chain adaptation.

Brexit caused the most significant single trade shock.

The most severe trade disruptions were linked to the United Kingdom's exit from the EU. EU imports from the UK experienced a supply shock in 2021, with volumes plummeting by 92.5%. This was accompanied by a 145.5% price shock, likely reflecting new customs friction and supply chain reorganization. This is the primary reason for the dramatic decline in UK import share.

The EU intensified its trade engagement globally.

Despite shocks, the EU's trade intensity (trade as a share of production) grew from 54.4% to 99.6%. More strikingly, export propensity (exports as a share of production) soared from 41.6% to 99.2%. This indicates that the surviving EU production base is now almost entirely geared towards the global market, with the domestic market supplied heavily by imports.

The product mix shows growth in unisex and comfort-oriented segments.

Examining trade at the product segment level reveals divergent trends. On the import side, traditional men's (CN 64039996) and women's (CN 64039998) footwear remain dominant by volume but saw mixed value performance. The most dynamic segment on the export side was "Footwear non-identifiable as men's or women's" (CN 64039993), which saw its value grow by 360% and quantity by 222%. This suggests increasing demand for unisex styles or a shift in classification, possibly linked to casual and comfort footwear trends.

EU Export Growth by Product Segment (Value € millions)

Source: Product segment breakdown

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's leather footwear market transformed from one characterized by a trade deficit and moderate trade intensity to one defined by a strong trade surplus, high export orientation, and deep global integration. This occurred even as domestic production volumes halved, indicating a strategic shift: the EU has consolidated its position as a producer and exporter of high-value leather footwear while relying on a concentrated set of Asian partners, particularly Vietnam, for mass-market imports. The market proved resilient to major shocks like Brexit, adapting through rapid supply chain reorganization. The standout growth in exports of "non-identifiable" footwear points to evolving consumer preferences and product strategies within the industry. The EU now functions as a highly specialized, export-driven hub in the global leather shoe value chain.