Market evolution: Leather footwear (CN 64039993) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union for CN 64039993 – a category of leather footwear with rubber or plastic soles, not identifiable by gender and with an in-sole length of at least 24 cm – over the 2015–2025 period. The analysis focuses on identifying key trends in import and export flows, changes in the geographic structure of trade, and shifts in the EU's production and market position. The data reveals a market characterised by robust export growth, a significant reorientation of import sources, and notable volatility triggered by global supply chain disruptions.

1. Strong Export Growth Contrasts with Expanding but Moderating Imports

The decade saw the EU's external trade in this footwear category expand substantially, though exports outpaced imports, leading to a persistent trade deficit that slightly narrowed by 2025. This indicates the EU maintains a stronger competitive position in export markets than in satisfying its own domestic demand.

Export Values Surged by Over 350%

EU exports in value terms grew from €155 million in 2015 to €711 million in 2025, a 359% increase. This explosive growth was driven by both higher volumes and significantly rising unit prices.

Import Values Nearly Doubled, Driven by Volume

Imports also grew, rising from €570 million to €1.13 billion (+98%). However, unlike exports, this was almost entirely volume-driven, with the average import price even declining slightly.

Trade Deficit Persisted but Remained Stable

The EU's trade deficit in this product category was -€415 million in 2015 and -€418 million in 2025. Despite the divergent growth rates, the deficit's stability suggests that strong export performance balanced the rise in imports.

2. A Fundamental Shift in Import Sourcing: From China to Southeast Asia

A defining feature of the period is the dramatic geographical realignment of the EU's import suppliers. The share of traditional suppliers like China and the United Kingdom fell sharply, while imports from Vietnam and Cambodia exploded, indicating a major shift in global footwear manufacturing.

Vietnam Became the Dominant Supplier

Vietnam's share of EU imports in value terms surged. It grew from €178 million in 2015 to €545 million in 2025, making it by far the largest source, surpassing China.

The United Kingdom's Role Diminished Drastically

Post-Brexit, the UK's relevance as a supplier to the EU collapsed by 78%, from €26 million to under €6 million. This is a clear structural change in trade patterns within Europe.

Import Concentration Increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,089 to 2,966, indicating that sourcing became more concentrated on a smaller number of key suppliers, principally Vietnam. Source: Concentration HHI

3. Domestic Production Declined While Export Specialisation Diversified

The EU's domestic production of this footwear type fell significantly, which likely underpins the surge in imports. Concurrently, the EU's export performance became less concentrated, with Germany emerging as a powerhouse.

EU Production Volume Halved

Production in terms of pairs fell by 63%, from 213 million pairs in 2015 to 78 million pairs in 2025. Production value also declined by 15%, suggesting a move away from mass-market production. Source: Production Volumes

Germany Became the EU's Export Leader and Specialised Producer

Germany's exports in this category grew by 797%, making it the bloc's largest exporter with a value of €475 million in 2025. According to the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index for 2025, Germany was the most specialised EU Member State in this product.

Export Destinations Diversified

The EU's export base broadened, with the United States becoming a major market (value up 1,469% to €204 million). The concentration of exports by value (HHI) decreased from 1,790 to 1,569, signifying a less concentrated and potentially more resilient export portfolio. Source: Concentration HHI

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in CN 64039993 footwear underwent a significant transformation. The market is characterised by three key dynamics: first, a booming export sector that grew in value, volume, and unit price, driven by demand in Western markets and led by Germany. Second, a radical re-sourcing of imports, with Vietnam and Cambodia displacing China and especially the UK as primary suppliers, leading to more concentrated import flows. Third, these trends occurred against a backdrop of declining domestic production, highlighting the EU's increased reliance on imports for mass-market supply while leveraging specialised production for high-value exports. The period was also marked by price shocks in 2022 from key Asian suppliers, a reminder of the vulnerabilities in the reshaped supply chain. Overall, the EU has become more integrated into global footwear trade, with a clearer division between its role as a premium exporter and its dependence on a now more focused set of Asian manufacturers.