Market evolution: Large turbojets (CN 841112) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of large turbojets (Customs Code 841112) for the European Union with non-EU countries over the 2015-2025 period. The product category, "Turbojets of a thrust > 25 kN," is critical for both civil aviation and defense sectors. Over the decade, the EU market has undergone a profound transformation, characterized by explosive export growth, a shift in trade balances, and significant changes in market concentration and partner dynamics. The data reveals a story of industrial resilience and strategic repositioning within a high-value, high-technology global supply chain.

The EU's Dramatic Pivot to a Net Exporter

The most striking development is the EU's transformation from a consistent net importer to a formidable net exporter of large turbojets. This shift reflects a fundamental strengthening of the Union's competitive position in this advanced manufacturing sector.

Export growth outpaces import expansion

From 2015 to 2025, EU exports of large turbojets surged dramatically. The trade value increased from approximately €5.14 billion to €19.15 billion, a rise of 272.8%. In contrast, while imports also grew significantly from €6.62 billion to €17.64 billion (a 166.4% increase), they were outpaced by export growth. The volume of exports, measured in tonnes, more than doubled (124.6% increase), and the number of items exported grew by 282.4%, indicating a massive ramp-up in production and international sales.

The trade balance reverses from deficit to surplus

The combination of faster export growth and rising unit export values allowed the EU to invert its trade position. In 2015, the EU ran a trade deficit of €1.49 billion. By 2025, this had turned into a healthy surplus of €1.50 billion. This 201.2% improvement underscores the sector's enhanced export performance and the EU's growing global market share.

Export value growth is driven by both volume and price

The surge in export value was fueled by dual factors. Export volume (in tonnes) grew by 124.6%, while the average export price per tonne increased by 66.0%. This indicates that the EU was not simply selling more, but also commanding higher prices, suggesting a shift towards more advanced, higher-value turbojet models or improved bargaining power in global markets.

Reshaping of Global Partnerships and Market Structure

The period saw a significant reconfiguration of the EU's trade relationships and a decentralization of its export markets, reducing dependency on single partners and fostering broader global ties.

Diversification of export destinations

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, a measure of market concentration, plummeted by 59.3% from 2,768 to 1,126. This indicates a dramatic reduction in export concentration. While the United States remained the top single destination (€2.62 billion in 2025), its share of total exports decreased. New, high-growth partnerships emerged, most notably with the United Kingdom, which saw exports skyrocket by 1,607.8%, and with Türkiye (613.5% growth) and China (325.1% growth).

Import sources remain concentrated but are evolving

Import concentration (HHI) decreased more modestly, by 14.4%, but remained higher than for exports. The United States and the United Kingdom dominated as suppliers, accounting for the vast majority of import value. However, a notable shock was the near-total collapse of imports from the Russian Federation, which fell by 98.3% from €63.4 million to €1.1 million, likely reflecting geopolitical shifts and sanctions.

Internal EU specialization and production growth

Within the EU, production data shows increased output and value creation. The number of items produced rose by 41.2%, while production value grew by 144.6% to over €5.28 billion. France emerged as the clear leader in specialization, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.81, contributing over 76% of EU production value. Conversely, several member states like Ireland, Czechia, and Belgium showed no specialization (RSCA of -1.0), indicating they are net importers within the bloc's internal market.

Navigating Volatility and Geopolitical Shocks

Despite the overarching growth trend, the market for large turbojets exhibited significant volatility and was sensitive to specific geopolitical and supply-chain shocks, particularly in trade with the United States.

Price volatility is high, especially in newer partnerships

Analysis of the coefficient of variation (CV) in trade values reveals substantial year-on-year fluctuations. For instance, EU exports to Mexico and the United Kingdom showed very high volatility (CV of 2.91 and 0.72, respectively), suggesting these are either emerging markets or subject to lumpy, project-based orders. Even major partners like the United States and Canada, while more stable, still saw meaningful price swings.

Critical price shocks impacted the largest trade flows

The shock detection analysis identified three major events. The most significant was a price shock in 2021 on EU imports from the United States, which saw a -35.7% shift in unit prices and an abnormality score of 12.5. Given that the US accounts for the lion's share of EU imports (76.4% in value), this event had a major market-wide impact. This was followed by a +273.2% price shock on EU exports to Singapore in 2023 and a +61.2% shock on exports to the US in 2019. These shocks highlight the market's sensitivity to factors like contract timing, model mix, and supply-chain disruptions.

Net import reliance fell to near-zero, signaling strategic autonomy

The net import reliance metric, which started at 14.2% in 2015, swung to -0.94% in 2025. This near-zero figure confirms the EU's achieved balance, meaning its turbojet production now roughly meets its consumption needs. Simultaneously, export propensity (the ratio of exports to production) surged to 300.8%, indicating that the EU industry has become fundamentally export-oriented, producing three times more value than its domestic market absorbs.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's trade in large turbojets evolved from a position of dependence to one of strength. The Union not only reversed a persistent trade deficit but also built a diversified and robust export network, with its industry becoming a global leader led by specialized production in France. While the market demonstrated considerable volatility and was not immune to price shocks—especially in its critical trade relationship with the United States—the overall trajectory points to increased industrial competitiveness, greater strategic autonomy in a key technology sector, and successful integration into global aerospace value chains. The future will likely see continued focus on diversification and managing the inherent volatility of this complex, high-stakes market.