Market evolution: Turbojet engines (CN 84111210) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of turbojet engines with a thrust exceeding 25 kN but not exceeding 44 kN (Customs Code 84111210) within the European Union from 2015 to 2025. The sector is a cornerstone of aerospace, serving both civil and military applications. Over the decade, the EU market has undergone a significant transformation, marked by a substantial increase in export capacity and value, a reshaping of global trade partnerships, and evolving strategic dependencies. The data reveals a narrative of the EU strengthening its position as a major net exporter while navigating considerable trade volatility and shifting supply chains.

1. A Fundamental Reversal: From Net Importer to Net Exporter

The most striking development over the period is the complete reversal of the EU’s trade position. The Union transitioned from being a significant net importer at the start of the period to achieving a net exporter status by the end.

The export explosion surpasses import growth

EU exports of these turbojets grew at a phenomenal rate, far outstripping the growth in imports.

While import value also more than doubled, export value grew more than fivefold. This divergence is clearly reflected in the trade balance, which moved from a deficit of approximately -386 million EUR in 2015 to a surplus of nearly +29 million EUR in one peak year (2023), before settling at a deficit of -414 million EUR in 2025. The initial deficit and the later smaller deficit, juxtaposed with the massive export growth, indicate that the EU simultaneously scaled up both production for export and imports for its own consumption needs.

The EU became a major net supplier to the world

A key indicator of this shift is the net import reliance metric. In 2015, the EU’s net import reliance stood at 14.2%, meaning it was a net importer. By 2025, this figure had turned negative to -0.9%, confirming the EU as a net exporter. The negative value indicates that exports exceeded imports, highlighting the sector’s enhanced competitiveness and capacity on the global stage.

2. A Reshuffling of Global Trade Partnerships

The geographical landscape of EU trade in this product category underwent a dramatic transformation, characterized by a strong consolidation of ties with some Western allies and a decline with other traditional partners.

Transatlantic ties strengthened, particularly with the United Kingdom

The United States remained the EU's top import source throughout the period, but the most dramatic growth occurred in trade with the United Kingdom.

Imports from Canada, a major traditional supplier, fell by a third. The relationship with the UK, however, deepened significantly, a trend possibly influenced by post-Brexit supply chain adjustments and the UK's role in the global aerospace ecosystem.

The UK became the EU's premier export destination

The most stunning shift occurred in EU exports. Exports to the United Kingdom exploded from a marginal 6.8 million EUR in 2015 to over 156 million EUR in 2025—a staggering increase of over 2,182%. By the end of the period, the UK had overtaken the US as the primary destination for EU exports of these engines.

Other notable export growth was recorded to Brazil (+984%) and Canada (+400%). Conversely, exports to Switzerland and imports from Taiwan and India saw significant declines, indicating a reorientation of supply chains.

3. Increased Strategic Focus with Elevated Volatility

While the EU’s position strengthened in terms of trade balance, the market structure evolved towards greater concentration and demonstrated high vulnerability to price shocks and bilateral volatility.

Export market concentration decreased, import dependency fluctuated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) reveals a divergent trend. For exports, the HHI fell sharply from 3,559 to 1,375, indicating a significant diversification of the EU’s customer base across more partners. For imports, the HHI remained relatively high and stable (around 3,500-3,800), suggesting that EU import sourcing remained concentrated among a few key suppliers, primarily the US, Canada, and the UK.

Price volatility and discrete supply shocks were pronounced

The market exhibited significant volatility, with high coefficients of variation (CV) for both imports and exports with several partners (e.g., UK exports CV=0.76, Norway imports CV=1.16). Furthermore, the data identifies major supply shocks, most notably:

• UK Imports (2021): An extreme price shock with an abnormality index of 2,589.3, corresponding to a 115,063% price shift, accounting for 11.3% of import value that year.
• Canada Imports (2018): A price shock (abnormality 359.7) with a 52.9% price shift, affecting 29.9% of import value.

These shocks underscore the price sensitivity and potential fragility within specific bilateral trade relationships, despite the overall positive trend.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU’s market for turbojet engines (84111210) evolved from a net importing position to one of pronounced export strength. This was driven by a near fivefold increase in export value, fundamentally altering the trade balance and solidifying the EU’s role as a global supplier. This growth was geographically focused, with a dramatic deepening of intra-European and transatlantic trade links, especially with the United Kingdom, which became the top export destination. However, this period of expansion was not without challenges. The market remained subject to high price volatility and was impacted by significant discrete supply shocks. While the EU diversified its export markets, its import sources remained concentrated. The overall trajectory points to a strengthened, more outward-looking European aerospace sector, but one that must manage persistent strategic dependencies and inherent market fluctuations.