Market evolution: Gas turbine parts (CN 841199) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in parts of gas turbines not elsewhere specified (Customs classification CN 841199) over the 2015–2025 period. The product covers a wide range of components used in turbojets, turbopropellers, and industrial gas turbines, serving both the aerospace and energy sectors. The EU has remained a consistent net exporter of these parts throughout the period, but the decade has seen significant shifts in trade geography, pricing dynamics, and market concentration. This report identifies and explains the main observable dynamics across three overarching themes.

1. A widening value-volume gap: the EU's shift toward high-value exports

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's export value for gas turbine parts rose from €4.28 billion to €5.88 billion (+37.5%), while export volumes actually declined from 52,805 tonnes to 40,758 tonnes (−22.8%). This divergence reflects a fundamental structural shift toward higher-value, more technologically sophisticated parts, as captured by the 78.2% increase in average unit export prices — from €81,036 per tonne to €144,367 per tonne (General Overview).

Export prices have nearly doubled while import prices grew more modestly

The gap between export and import unit prices has widened substantially: by 2025, EU exports commanded more than double the per-tonne price of imports (€144,367 vs. €67,401). This suggests that the EU has increasingly specialised in high-complexity, high-margin components — such as turbine blades, combustion liners, and advanced alloys — while sourcing lower-complexity parts from third countries.

Domestic production expanded strongly, reinforcing the EU's net exporter position

EU domestic production value for gas turbine parts grew from €930 million to €2.4 billion over the period (+158.1%), with a peak of €3.55 billion. This expansion underpins the EU's persistent net exporter status: net import reliance remained firmly negative (from −102.7% to −107.2%), meaning the EU consistently exported more than it imported. The trade balance itself grew from €1.31 billion to €1.70 billion (+30.4%).

The EU's export propensity signals a deeply integrated global supplier

The EU's export propensity — exports relative to domestic production — stood at 228.9% in 2025 (down from 253.3% in 2015), indicating that the EU exported more than twice the value of its own production. This is characteristic of a supply chain where the EU acts as a central hub, importing components for assembly and re-exporting finished or semi-finished parts. The slight decline in export propensity may reflect growing domestic demand or some reshoring of final assembly.

2. Geographic concentration: deepening ties with the United States and rising Asian competition

The geographic structure of EU trade in gas turbine parts has evolved significantly, with the United States consolidating its role as the dominant partner on both the import and export sides, while China has emerged as a rapidly growing trade partner.

The United States anchors both sides of EU trade

The United States was the EU's largest single trade partner in 2025 for both imports and exports. EU exports to the US grew by 85.7% in value terms — the largest absolute increase among all partners — reflecting the deep transatlantic integration of aerospace supply chains (e.g., between European engine makers and US airframers). Meanwhile, the EU also imported €1.86 billion from the US, highlighting the highly reciprocal nature of this bilateral relationship.

China's role has expanded on both sides, but asymmetries persist

EU exports to China grew by 221.7% (from €109 million to €350 million), the fastest rate among the top export destinations. At the same time, imports from China rose by 61.0% (from €476 million to €766 million). The EU maintained a trade deficit with China in this product category, but the deficit narrowed as exports grew faster than imports. This may reflect China's own expanding gas turbine fleet and its reliance on EU-made high-precision components.

Serbia's emergence signals a new manufacturing foothold in the Western Balkans

One of the most striking developments is the rise of Serbia as an import source: imports grew from a negligible €37,000 in 2015 to €178 million in 2025 — a percentage increase of over 477,000%. This likely reflects the establishment of gas turbine component manufacturing facilities in Serbia, possibly by EU-based OEMs seeking lower labour costs while maintaining geographic proximity. Serbia's candidacy status and association agreements with the EU facilitate such supply chain relocations.

The concentration of EU imports has modestly increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 2,358 to 2,556 (+8.4%), indicating a moderate increase in supplier concentration. By volume, the increase was more pronounced (from 2,680 to 3,992, +48.9%), suggesting that fewer countries now account for a larger share of physical shipments. For exports, the HHI rose from 674 to 999 (+48.1% by value and +131.7% by volume), pointing to growing concentration in the EU's export destinations — a potential vulnerability if key markets face disruption.

3. Price shocks, volatility, and emerging market risks

The gas turbine parts market has exhibited notable price volatility, particularly in export flows to politically or economically unstable regions. Several large price shocks have been detected, and the pattern of volatility reveals important structural risks.

Major export price shocks have concentrated in energy-dependent economies

The data reveals three significant price shock events in EU exports:

The 2023 US price shock is the most consequential given the United States' large share of EU export value (28.9%). A 61.9% price increase in a single year, with an abnormality score of 48.8, may reflect a shift in the product mix toward higher-value parts, supply chain disruptions, or pricing power by EU exporters in a tightening market. The Nigeria and Iraq shocks, while smaller in absolute value terms, are proportionally very large (price shifts of 290% and 249% respectively), likely reflecting the lumpy, project-based nature of turbine part deliveries to oil-dependent economies undertaking major power infrastructure investments.

Emerging markets show the highest volatility coefficients

The coefficient of variation (CV) in export values reveals a clear pattern: established trade partners show lower volatility, while emerging markets are highly volatile.

Nigeria (CV = 1.33), Algeria (CV = 1.13), and Iraq (CV = 0.98) stand out as the most volatile export markets. These are countries where gas turbine orders are tied to large, intermittent infrastructure projects. By contrast, exports to the United Kingdom (CV = 0.22) and Switzerland (CV = 0.23) — both deeply integrated into European supply chains — are far more stable.

Import-side volatility is more moderate but varies by partner

On the import side, volatility is generally lower, with the largest suppliers — China (CV = 0.13), India (CV = 0.16), and the United States (CV = 0.15) — showing very stable flows. However, imports from Türkiye (CV = 0.76), Japan (CV = 0.71), and Korea (CV = 0.65) are more erratic, potentially reflecting the project-driven or contract-specific nature of sourcing from these countries.

Geopolitical factors have reshaped some bilateral flows

The collapse of EU exports to Iran (−74.1%, from €83 million to €22 million) is a clear consequence of sanctions-related trade restrictions. Meanwhile, the rapid growth of imports from India (+89.5%) and the continued deepening of ties with the United States and China reflect the broader globalisation of gas turbine supply chains, with the EU positioned as a high-value node in a complex, multi-directional network.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU has reinforced its position as a leading global supplier of high-value gas turbine parts, with the trade balance growing to €1.70 billion and export unit prices reaching nearly €145,000 per tonne — more than double the import price. This reflects a structural specialisation in premium, technology-intensive components, supported by expanding domestic production. Geographically, the transatlantic relationship with the United States remains the backbone of EU trade in this category, while China's growing role on both the import and export sides points to an increasingly multipolar supply chain. At the same time, the EU faces rising concentration risk in its export destinations and significant price volatility in emerging markets such as Nigeria, Algeria, and Iraq. The emergence of Serbia as a major import source and the growth of Central European members like Hungary and Poland in production suggest ongoing supply chain optimisation within the EU's broader neighbourhood. Looking ahead, the key challenges will be managing dependency on a small number of large partners, navigating geopolitical disruptions, and maintaining the EU's technological edge in a market where Asian competitors are steadily increasing their presence.