Market evolution: Aircraft turbine parts (CN 841191) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in Parts of turbojets or turbopropellers, n.e.s. (CN 841191) over the 2015–2025 period. This product category covers a critical segment of the aerospace supply chain, encompassing components for turbojet and turboprop engines that are not elsewhere specified. Over the decade examined, the EU's trade in these parts underwent a striking transformation: both imports and exports more than doubled in value, the trade balance shifted from near-equilibrium to a substantial deficit, and the geographic profile of trading partners evolved considerably. These dynamics occurred against a backdrop of post-pandemic recovery in civil aviation, supply-chain restructuring, and inflationary pressures on high-value aerospace components. The following sections unpack the main patterns and their likely drivers.

1. Explosive Value Growth Outpaces Modest Volume Expansion

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 841191 over the 2015–2025 decade is the disconnect between the explosive growth in trade values and the comparatively modest rise in physical volumes. This points to a market where unit prices — not sheer quantities — have been the primary engine of headline growth.

Export values more than doubled while volumes grew by just a fifth

EU exports of turbine parts rose from €8.82 billion in 2015 to €18.65 billion in 2025, an increase of 111.4%. Over the same period, export volumes grew by a far more modest 22.0%, from 11,809 tonnes to 14,402 tonnes. The minimum export value during the period was €8.48 billion (at the outset), and the maximum was €18.65 billion (in the final year), indicating a broadly upward trajectory without major reversals.

Import values grew even faster, reaching €25 billion by 2025

EU imports surged from €9.42 billion in 2015 to €25.06 billion in 2025, a 166.0% increase. Import volumes, however, grew by only 9.5%, from 14,574 tonnes to 15,961 tonnes. This sharper value-to-volume divergence on the import side reflects a steeper rise in the unit cost of imported parts.

Unit prices nearly doubled on both sides

The trade overview data shows that the average export price per tonne rose from €746,805 to €1,294,451 (+73.3%), while the average import price rose from €646,383 to €1,570,249 (+142.9%). The fact that import prices increased nearly twice as fast as export prices is a key structural shift: it implies that the EU has become increasingly reliant on higher-cost suppliers or that the composition of imports has shifted toward more expensive components.

The EU trade balance swung from near-equilibrium to a €6.4 billion deficit

In 2015, the EU ran a modest trade deficit of –€602 million in turbine parts. By 2025, this had ballooned to –€6.42 billion — a deterioration of nearly 967%. The data shows the deficit reached its widest point in the final year, while the EU briefly achieved a surplus of €481 million at some point during the period (likely around 2019–2020, when aviation demand collapsed asymmetrically). The rapid widening of the deficit in the later years reflects the combined effect of fast-rising import values and the EU's inability to match that pace on the export side.

2. Geographic Rebalancing: From US–UK Dominance to a Broader Partner Base

The geographic structure of EU trade in CN 841191 has shifted meaningfully over the decade. While the United States and the United Kingdom remain the dominant partners, a number of emerging economies — notably China, Mexico, and Türkiye — have gained prominence. At the same time, concentration has declined, indicating a diversification of the EU's trade relationships.

The United States remains the overwhelmingly dominant partner

The US accounted for the largest share of EU trade in both directions. In 2025, EU imports from the US reached €15.82 billion (+135.8% from 2015), while exports to the US stood at €9.08 billion (+82.5%). This bilateral relationship alone generates a significant EU deficit and reflects the deep integration between European and American aerospace manufacturing, with companies like GE, Pratt & Whitney, and their European counterparts maintaining transatlantic supply chains.

China and Mexico emerged as fast-growing import sources

Several partners recorded triple- or quadruple-digit growth rates over the period:

Mexico's import growth of +1,936.3% is particularly remarkable and likely reflects the expansion of aerospace manufacturing clusters in Querétaro and other Mexican states, where European OEMs have invested heavily. China's +277.8% import growth mirrors its emergence as a supplier of aircraft components, possibly through joint ventures or offset agreements linked to aircraft sales to Chinese airlines.

Trade concentration declined, signaling diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports fell from 5,177 to 4,281 (–17.3%), and for exports from 3,469 to 2,665 (–23.2%). While import concentration remains in the "moderately concentrated" range (reflecting the continued weight of the US), the downward trend indicates that the EU has diversified its sourcing — particularly toward Mexico, China, and Türkiye — and its export destinations.

France is the EU's dominant producer and exporter

Within the EU, France stands out as the most specialised member state, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.71 and a Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of 5.82 — by far the highest in the EU. France's production share in 2025 was 45.5% of the EU total. This reflects the central role of Safran (and its CFM International joint venture with GE) in engine manufacturing. Poland has emerged as the second-most specialised member state (RSCA of 0.11), while Germany, despite its large production share (14.4%), shows a negative RSCA (–0.19), indicating it is a net importer in relative terms. EU production value grew from €4.69 billion to €14.31 billion (+204.9%), outpacing trade growth and suggesting expanding domestic manufacturing capacity.

3. Rising Import Dependence and Emerging Supply-Chain Risks

The structural shifts in EU trade for CN 841191 raise questions about the bloc's strategic position in the aerospace supply chain. Data on trade vulnerability, volatility, and shock events suggest that while the EU remains a major producer and exporter, its growing reliance on external suppliers — particularly for high-value components — introduces new risks.

Net import reliance has increased

The net import reliance of the EU in CN 841191 rose from 17.7% in 2015 to 21.0% in 2025 (+18.5%). At its peak during the period, it reached 23.5%. This measure captures the extent to which the EU's consumption of turbine parts exceeds its domestic production and must be met through imports. The rising trend, despite the 204.9% increase in EU production value, indicates that demand for these parts has grown even faster than the EU's capacity to produce them.

Export propensity and trade intensity are exceptionally high

The EU's export propensity — exports as a share of production — stood at 115.8% in 2025, up from 80.9% in 2015. An export propensity above 100% means the EU exported more turbine parts than it produced domestically, implying re-export activity (importing components for assembly and re-export) or timing mismatches in inventory flows. The trade intensity — the sum of imports and exports relative to production — reached 106.5% in 2025, underscoring how deeply integrated this sector is into global supply chains.

Some trading relationships exhibit significant volatility

The coefficient of variation (CV) of trade flows reveals that certain partners show high instability:

The extremely high export volatility toward Taiwan (CV of 0.84) and Malaysia (CV of 0.79) suggests that EU trade with these partners is lumpy and may be driven by specific contracts or program milestones rather than steady-state flows. By contrast, trade with the US and Canada is relatively stable, consistent with deeply embedded, long-term supply-chain relationships.

Price shocks were detected in exports to Türkiye and Mexico

The shock detection analysis identified two significant price shocks in EU exports:

• Türkiye (2021): An abnormality score of 7.4 and a price shift of +86.3%, affecting a flow with a 3.1% value share. This may reflect currency depreciation in Türkiye (the lira lost significant value in 2021), which would inflate the euro-denominated price of EU exports.
• Mexico (2019): An abnormality score of 3.6 and a price shift of +59.5%, affecting a 4.1% value share. This could be linked to the ramp-up of specific engine programs or changes in the product mix toward higher-value components.

These shocks, while significant in magnitude, affected relatively small shares of overall EU exports. The primary vulnerability lies not in these bilateral price movements but in the structural dependence on US-sourced imports, which represent the single largest line item in the EU's turbine-parts trade balance.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in aircraft turbine parts (CN 841191) has been characterised by three overarching dynamics: a massive inflation in trade values driven primarily by rising unit prices rather than volume expansion; a geographic diversification of trading partners, with Mexico, China, and Türkiye gaining importance alongside the traditional US–UK axis; and a gradual increase in the EU's net import reliance, from 17.7% to 21.0%, despite a 204.9% rise in domestic production value. The EU's trade deficit in this sector widened to €6.4 billion by 2025, driven largely by the €15.8 billion in imports from the United States alone.

France remains the EU's undisputed hub for turbine-parts production and export, reflecting the strategic position of its aerospace industry. The declining concentration indices suggest a healthier diversification of trade relationships, but the growing import dependence — combined with high volatility in certain emerging-market partnerships — signals potential supply-chain vulnerabilities. As global aviation demand continues to recover and engine programs like the LEAP and GTF ramp up production, the EU's ability to expand domestic capacity and manage its external dependencies will be critical to maintaining its competitive position in this strategically vital sector.