Market evolution: Footwear parts (CN 6406) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union in footwear parts (Combined Nomenclature code 6406) between 2015 and 2025. The product category is defined as parts of footwear, including uppers, removable in-soles, heel cushions, and similar articles. Over this period, the EU's trade dynamics in this sector reveal a significant structural shift: a growing deficit characterized by rising import values and declining export volumes, pointing towards increased external dependency and a possible specialization in higher-value-added domestic production.

1. A Widening Deficit Driven by Import Growth and Export Contraction

The EU's trade balance for footwear parts deteriorated substantially over the decade, moving from a deficit of approximately €606 million in 2015 to over €1.14 billion in 2025. This trend is the result of divergent paths for imports and exports.

• Imports increased in value but not proportionally in volume. Total import value rose by 39.6% from €1.20 billion to €1.67 billion. However, import volume grew by a more modest 14.9%. This indicates a sharp increase in the average unit price of imports, which climbed by 21.5% from €24,297 per tonne to €29,517 per tonne.

• Exports declined sharply in volume, despite relatively stable values. Export volume fell dramatically by 46.4%, from 54,311 tonnes to 29,110 tonnes. In contrast, export value decreased by only 10.0% to €533 million. Consequently, the average price of EU exports surged by 67.9%, reaching €18,299 per tonne in 2025. This suggests that EU exporters may be focusing on lower-volume, higher-value niches within the footwear parts market.

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2. Reorientation of Trade Partners and Growing Market Concentration

The geographic composition of the EU's trade in footwear parts has evolved, with a notable shift towards certain partners and increasing market concentration on both the import and export sides.

• Key suppliers consolidated their positions, with Albania emerging as a major partner. While China remained the largest single supplier with imports valued at €245 million in 2025 (+39.7% since 2015), Albania's imports surged by 112.0% to €255 million, becoming the second-largest source. Other key suppliers like Vietnam and Tunisia also recorded strong growth (+62.9% and +86.1%, respectively). The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 17.2%, indicating greater concentration among fewer suppliers.

• Export markets also became more concentrated, with shifting roles for key partners. The EU's top export destinations are neighboring or nearby countries, many of which are likely involved in integrated supply chains. The HHI for exports rose by 26.1%. Notably, exports to Morocco grew by 58.6%, while exports to traditional partners like Bosnia and Herzegovina (-32.4%) and Serbia (-39.8%) fell. Italy remained the EU's largest exporter, though its value declined by 28.5%, while Germany's exports more than doubled (+133.8%).

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3. Specialization, Volatility, and Rising Import Dependency

Analysis of the EU's internal structure and external vulnerability reveals a sector undergoing specialization but facing increased risks from supply concentration and price shocks.

• Production shifted towards higher value, while certain Member States displayed clear specialization. EU production volume in items (pieces) plummeted by 81.5%, but the production value increased by 27.8%. This stark divergence suggests a strategic move away from mass production towards higher-value-added activities. Eastern European Member States like Romania, Croatia, and Bulgaria exhibit the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in this product, indicating a concentration of specialized manufacturing.

• Supply chains experienced price shocks and rising volatility. The data identifies significant price shocks, notably for exports to Türkiye in 2022 (+67.4% shift) and for imports from Morocco in the same year (+15.6%). Several partner relationships, such as exports to Algeria and Nigeria, show high volatility (Coefficient of Variation > 0.5), signaling less predictable trade flows.

• The EU's net import reliance has nearly doubled. A critical vulnerability indicator is the net import reliance, which measures the share of EU consumption met by imports. This metric increased from 13.1% in 2015 to 25.7% in 2025, a 96.1% rise. This confirms the widening trade deficit is not merely a value phenomenon but reflects a growing structural dependency on foreign sources for footwear parts.

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Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in footwear parts (CN 6406) has undergone a significant transformation. The market is characterized by a persistently growing trade deficit, driven by rising import values and a collapse in export volumes. This trend masks a potential strategic shift within the EU, where production has moved from high-volume to higher-value segments, as evidenced by specialized clusters in Eastern Europe and soaring export unit prices. However, this evolution has come at the cost of increased external dependency, with nearly a quarter of domestic demand now met by imports. The supply landscape is concentrated and has been subject to price shocks, highlighting vulnerabilities. Moving forward, the key challenge for the EU industry will be to sustain its value-added specialization while managing the risks of a more import-dependent and geographically concentrated supply chain.