Market evolution: Other material footwear (CN 6405) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 6405 is a residual category within Chapter 64 (Footwear, Gaiters and the Like), covering footwear made from unconventional materials—such as wood, cork, straw, loofah, or non-standard uppers—that do not fit into the more precisely defined leather (6403) or textile-rubber (6404) categories. It therefore captures a heterogeneous set of niche, artisanal, or simply non-standard footwear products.

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in CN 6405 with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a market undergoing profound structural change: EU domestic production has collapsed, the trade balance has swung deep into deficit, and the EU has become markedly more reliant on imports—primarily from China but increasingly from emerging suppliers in Southeast Asia and the Western Balkans. The following three sections explore these dynamics in detail.

Full overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. A Decade of Structural Contraction: Declining Production, Falling Exports, and a Widening Trade Deficit

The most striking feature of the CN 6405 market over 2015–2025 is the dramatic erosion of EU productive capacity, which has reshaped the entire trade landscape.

EU production has collapsed by over three quarters in volume

EU production of CN 6405 footwear fell from 139.6 million pairs in 2015 to just 32.3 million pairs in 2025, a decline of 76.9%. In value terms, output shrank from €794 million to €444 million (−44.0%). This is by far the most consequential trend in the dataset: the EU has largely ceased to be a significant producer of this footwear category. The gap between value decline (−44%) and volume decline (−77%) suggests that the surviving production has shifted toward higher-value-added items, while mass-market output has been abandoned.

Production volumes on the Trade Dashboard

Exports have followed production downward

EU exports of CN 6405 to non-EU countries fell from €319 million (11,524 tonnes) in 2015 to €261 million (7,517 tonnes) in 2025. The decline in physical volume (−34.8% by weight, −48.5% by pair count) was steeper than the value decline (−18.4%), indicating that export prices rose significantly—by 25.1% per tonne and 58.3% per pair. This price increase reflects a compositional shift toward higher-value footwear rather than general inflation. The EU is exporting fewer but more expensive shoes.

Imports have proved more resilient, widening the deficit

By contrast, imports remained broadly stable in value (€342 million → €359 million, +4.8%) and volume (28,958 tonnes → 27,595 tonnes, −4.7%). The combination of falling exports and stable imports turned a modest €23 million trade deficit in 2015 into a €98 million deficit in 2025—a deterioration of 326%. The net import reliance ratio surged from 7.1% to 29.8%, confirming that the EU has moved from near self-sufficiency to substantial external dependence in barely a decade.

Import prices have risen, but export prices have risen faster

Import prices per tonne increased by 10.0% (from €11,825 to €13,002), while import prices per pair fell slightly by 2.9% (from €2.68 to €2.60), suggesting that imported footwear became marginally lighter on average—possibly reflecting a shift toward lighter, lower-cost constructions. Meanwhile, the much sharper increase in export prices (€/pair +58.3%) implies that the EU's remaining export activity is concentrated in the premium segment.

2. Shifting Geography of Supply: Asian Consolidation and Western Balkan Emergence

The restructuring of EU trade in CN 6405 has been accompanied by a significant reorientation of the geographic sources of supply, with profound implications for the EU's trade policy and supply-chain strategy.

China remains the dominant supplier but has ceded some ground

China supplied €206 million of CN 6405 imports in 2025, up 7.4% from 2015. While China retains a commanding position, its share has been diluted by the rapid growth of alternative suppliers. The coefficient of variation (CV) of Chinese imports is notably low at 0.20, confirming a stable, predictable supply relationship.

The collapse of UK trade is the single largest structural shift

Imports from the United Kingdom plummeted from €74 million to €7 million (−90.0%)—the most dramatic decline of any major partner. This almost certainly reflects the UK's departure from the EU Single Market and Customs Union after Brexit, which introduced customs formalations, rules-of-origin requirements, and potential tariffs that reclassified UK–EU flows from intra-EU to extra-EU trade. The high CV of 0.95 for UK import flows reflects the turbulence of this transition rather than genuine supply instability. Conversely, EU exports to the UK also fell from €60 million to €44 million (−26.5%), suggesting that Brexit has disrupted trade in both directions.

Viet Nam has emerged as the second-largest non-EU supplier

Imports from Viet Nam more than doubled from €26 million to €54 million (+104.7%), making it the second-largest non-EU supplier after China. This mirrors the broader pattern across many product categories of "China+1" sourcing strategies, whereby EU importers diversify away from Chinese dependence toward other Asian manufacturing hubs.

Western Balkan suppliers have grown spectacularly from a low base

Several Western Balkan countries have emerged as significant and fast-growing suppliers:

These figures are consistent with the broader trend of nearshoring and supply-chain regionalization, where EU companies increasingly source from geographically proximate countries that offer competitive labour costs and benefit from EU association or preferential trade agreements. Albania's growth of nearly 1,600% is particularly striking, albeit from a very small base.

Import concentration has remained high but is slowly declining

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell marginally from 3,668 to 3,600 (−1.9%). An HHI above 2,500 indicates a highly concentrated market; the marginal decline confirms that while diversification is underway, it is slow. By contrast, export concentration is much lower (HHI ≈ 947 in 2025) and rose slightly (+13.7%), suggesting that EU exports have become marginally more focused on a smaller number of destination markets.

Among EU Member States, the Netherlands has become the dominant import hub

Looking at intra-EU reporting, the Netherlands more than doubled its CN 6405 imports (from €41 million to €83 million, +103.7%), overtaking Germany as the largest EU import destination. Germany's imports fell sharply from €84 million to €44 million (−47.4%), and France's declined from €75 million to €56 million (−25.4%). Italy, Spain, Ireland, and Poland all saw import increases. This shift likely reflects changes in logistics hub dynamics and the growing role of Rotterdam as the primary entry point for Asian footwear into the EU.

Top partners on the Trade Dashboard

3. Rising Vulnerability and Persistent Volatility: The Risks of Import Dependence

The structural shifts described above—collapsing production, growing import reliance, and supply-chain reorientation—have materially altered the EU's vulnerability profile in the CN 6405 market.

The EU has moved from near-autarky to significant import exposure

The trade intensity ratio doubled from 46.6% to 95.0%, while export propensity surged from 27.7% to 88.5%. In effect, the CN 6405 market has transitioned from a largely domestically-oriented industry to one where nearly all production is traded internationally and imports supply a rapidly growing share of domestic consumption.

Several import and export corridors exhibit high price volatility

The volatility analysis reveals that some supply relationships are far more stable than others:

Cambodia's extreme import volatility (CV = 1.54) and Algeria's export volatility (CV = 1.72) suggest that these are opportunistic or episodic trade relationships rather than stable supply chains. The stability of China and Switzerland at the low end of volatility reflects long-established, deep commercial relationships.

Isolated price shocks have been detected in smaller markets

The shock detection identifies three notable price anomalies:

These events occurred in very small markets (combined value share < 1%) and are therefore unlikely to have systemic significance for the overall CN 6405 trade. However, they illustrate the volatility inherent in small, transaction-driven trade flows to developing economies.

The intra-EU production landscape reveals stark specialisation asymmetries

Within the EU, production specialisation in CN 6405 is heavily concentrated in Southern and Eastern Europe:

Italy alone accounts for over one-fifth of EU production, making the sector vulnerable to disruptions concentrated in a single Member State. At the other end, Ireland (RSCA = −0.92), Malta (−0.89), and Finland (−0.89) have negligible specialisation, consistent with these countries' broader economic profiles.

Conclusion

The EU's CN 6405 market has undergone a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025 that can be summarised in three words: less production, more imports, higher prices. Domestic output has fallen by over three-quarters in volume, turning the EU from near self-sufficiency to one-third import-reliant. The trade deficit has quadrupled. Export prices have risen sharply—suggesting that the EU's remaining competitive edge lies in premium, niche products—but export volumes continue to decline.

The supply landscape has been reshaped by two forces: the geopolitical shock of Brexit (which severed the UK as a major intra-EU-style supplier) and the long-term migration of mass-market footwear manufacturing to Asia and the Western Balkans. China remains the anchor supplier, but Viet Nam, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania have gained significant ground. Meanwhile, the Netherlands has emerged as the EU's primary import gateway, displacing Germany.

Looking ahead, the key risks lie in the combination of high import concentration (HHI still above 3,500), rising import reliance, and the collapse of domestic production capacity. Should geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, or logistics disruptions affect Asian supply chains, the EU's ability to substitute domestically would be extremely limited. The modest but real diversification toward Western Balkan suppliers is a positive development, but it remains marginal relative to the scale of Chinese and Vietnamese supply.