Market evolution: Vulcanised rubber waterproof footwear (CN 6401) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in waterproof footwear with outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics (Combined Nomenclature code 6401) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers footwear where uppers are neither fixed to the sole nor assembled by stitching, riveting, or similar processes—excluding orthopaedic footwear, toy footwear, skating boots, and protective sportswear. The analysis draws on official trade data for the EU as reporter against non-EU partners.

Over the decade, the EU's waterproof footwear market has undergone a structural transformation characterised by rising import dependency, diverging volume and value trends, and shifting geographic patterns. The EU remains a net importer of these products, but the dynamics of its trade have evolved significantly—driven by post-Brexit disruptions, supply-chain reorientation toward Western Balkan and Turkish producers, and a clear upmarket pivot in EU exports.

1. The Volume–Value Paradox: Exporting Less but Earning More

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between volume and value in EU exports of CN 6401 products. While the physical quantity of exports contracted sharply, the total value of exports increased, pointing to a deliberate or structural shift toward higher-value products.

Export volumes declined significantly while export values rose

Between 2015 and 2025, EU export volume in tonnes fell by 36.6%, from 14,233 tonnes to 9,026 tonnes. The number of pairs exported declined by a comparable 31.4%, from 9.6 million to 6.6 million pairs. Yet over the same period, total export value rose by 13.5%, from €118.3 million to €134.3 million.

EU export prices nearly doubled, indicating a premium-product shift

The average export price per tonne increased by 79.0% over the period, from €8,314 to €14,878. On a per-pair basis, the price rose from €12.36 to €20.45 (+65.4%). This price appreciation far outpaces general inflation and is consistent with a compositional shift in EU exports toward higher-value waterproof footwear—including, for instance, specialised occupational safety footwear (sub-heading 640110) rather than basic rubber boots.

EU production value surged even as production volumes shrank

This export-side dynamic is mirrored in EU domestic production. EU production volume fell by 17.9%, from 39.9 million pairs to 32.8 million pairs over the period, yet production value increased by 150.6%, from €245.7 million to €615.6 million. This reinforces the interpretation that the EU waterproof footwear industry is moving upmarket: producing fewer units at significantly higher average prices.

2. Import Dependency and Geographical Reorientation

While the EU's export profile has shifted toward higher value, its import side has also evolved substantially. The EU has become more reliant on imports by value, while the geographic sources of those imports have shifted in ways that reflect broader trade-policy and geopolitical trends.

The EU's import bill grew faster than its export receipts, widening the trade deficit

EU import value rose from €174.8 million in 2015 to €206.8 million in 2025 (+18.3%), while import volume in tonnes increased by 14.0% (from 26,391 to 30,093 tonnes) and the number of imported pairs rose by 21.5% (from 28.1 million to 34.2 million). The trade balance in value terms moved from −€56.5 million in 2015 to −€72.5 million in 2025, a deterioration of 28.4%.

The net import reliance indicator moved from −4.8% in 2015 to +3.7% in 2025, confirming that the EU shifted from being a slight net exporter (by this metric) to a net importer.

China remains the dominant supplier, but Western Balkan and Turkish imports surged

China has consistently been the largest source of EU imports, accounting for €112.7 million in 2015 and €141.8 million in 2025 (+25.9%). However, several smaller suppliers experienced far faster growth:

The rapid growth of imports from Türkiye and Albania suggests that the EU has been diversifying its supply base, possibly driven by nearshoring incentives, EU association agreements with Western Balkan countries, and cost advantages relative to distant Asian suppliers.

Brexit visibly disrupted EU–UK trade in waterproof footwear

The United Kingdom was a significant trade partner for the EU in this product category. EU imports from the UK fell by 54.8% (from €12.5 million to €5.6 million) between 2015 and 2025, while EU exports to the UK fell by 28.1% (from €36.0 million to €25.9 million). The UK's departure from the EU Single Market and Customs Union introduced new trade frictions that visibly depressed bilateral trade flows.

3. Production Specialisation, Market Concentration, and Geopolitical Vulnerability

Beyond aggregate flows, the structure of the EU's waterproof footwear sector reveals important dynamics around production specialisation, supply concentration, and trade volatility.

EU production is concentrated in a handful of Member States with strong specialisation

Based on revealed comparative advantage data for 2025, Portugal is the most specialised EU producer in CN 6401 products (RSCA of 0.71), followed by Denmark (0.57), Greece (0.50), Italy (0.33), and Bulgaria (0.32). At the other end of the spectrum, Malta, Ireland, and Luxembourg show negligible specialisation.

This concentration of expertise means that a significant share of EU production capacity for waterproof footwear resides in a small number of countries—principally southern and southeastern European Member States.

Import concentration has increased, raising supply-chain risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value rose from 4,329 in 2015 to 4,915 in 2025 (+13.5%), indicating that imports have become more concentrated among fewer supplier countries. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated. In contrast, the export-side HHI declined from 1,231 to 860 (−30.1%), suggesting that EU exports have become more diversified across destination markets.

This asymmetry is noteworthy: while the EU has diversified its export customer base, its import sourcing has become more concentrated—primarily due to China's continued dominance and the growth of a small number of Balkan suppliers.

Trade volatility is highest with emerging and politically unstable partners

Volatility analysis (coefficient of variation of import values) reveals that the most volatile import sources include Albania (CV: 0.73), the Russian Federation (0.69), the United Kingdom (0.55), and Ukraine (0.50). On the export side, volatility is highest for the Russian Federation (0.62), Bosnia and Herzegovina (0.57), Ukraine (0.52), and Ghana (0.47).

Several price shocks were detected over the period, most notably in exports to Türkiye in 2020 (price shift of +49.2%), to Australia in 2023 (+101.2%), and to Melilla in 2021 (+454.5%). The 2020 shock to Turkish export prices likely reflects the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated currency volatility in Turkey.

Product sub-segments tell divergent stories

The product segment breakdown reveals markedly different dynamics across the three sub-headings:

CN 640192 (waterproof footwear covering the ankle) is by far the largest segment, representing the majority of both import and export volumes. In 2025, it accounted for 20,097 tonnes of imports (67% of total) and 14,750 tonnes by value (72% of total import value).

CN 640110 (waterproof footwear with protective metal toecap) saw the most dramatic shift on the import side. Import value for this sub-heading surged from €29.3 million in 2015 to a peak of €124.5 million in 2018, before falling back to €21.9 million in 2025. Meanwhile, the average import price per tonne collapsed from €18,166 in 2015 to just €3,863 in 2025 (−79%). This is consistent with a period of aggressive price competition—possibly driven by Chinese producers—followed by market correction.

CN 640199 (waterproof footwear not covering the ankle) is the smallest segment by import volume but showed strong growth on the export side, particularly in 2024 when export value surged to €87.2 million (up from €34.5 million in 2023), before reverting to €21.2 million in 2025.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 6401 waterproof footwear has undergone a significant structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three overarching themes define this evolution:

1. Upmarket repositioning: EU producers have shifted toward higher-value products, as evidenced by rising export prices (+79% per tonne) and production values (+150.6%) despite declining volumes. The EU is producing and exporting fewer pairs, but each pair commands a substantially higher price.

2. Deepening import dependency with shifting geography: The EU's trade deficit in this category widened from €56.5 million to €72.5 million. While China remains the dominant supplier, the rapid growth of imports from Türkiye (+333%) and Albania (+441%) points to a nearshoring trend, while Brexit has sharply reduced UK–EU trade flows in both directions.

3. Concentration risks and volatility: Import concentration has increased (HHI +13.5%), leaving the EU more exposed to supply disruptions from key partners. Volatility remains elevated with several emerging suppliers, and notable price shocks—particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic—underscore the fragility of these trade relationships.

Looking ahead, the EU's strategic interest in waterproof footwear supply chains intersects with broader policy debates around trade diversification, nearshoring incentives, and the resilience of European manufacturing in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.