Market evolution: Rubber soles and heels (CN 640620) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in outer soles and heels of rubber or plastics (Combined Nomenclature code 640620) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers two sub-categories: rubber soles and heels (64062010) and plastics soles and heels (64062090). It is a key intermediate input in the European footwear manufacturing value chain, with Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Romania acting as the main EU producers and exporters. Over the decade under review, the EU's trade position in this product has undergone a dramatic structural shift: the bloc moved from a comfortable trade surplus to near-parity, driven by collapsing export volumes, rising imports, and a sharp contraction in domestic production. The following sections detail these dynamics and their underlying causes.

1. A Decade of Erosion: How the EU Lost Its Trade Surplus

The surplus virtually disappeared between 2015 and 2025

The most striking headline from the data is the near-complete evaporation of the EU's trade surplus in outer soles and heels. In 2015, the EU recorded a positive trade balance of approximately €90.4 million. By 2025, that surplus had shrunk to just €234,000 — a decline of 99.7%. This was not a gradual, linear erosion; rather, it resulted from opposing trajectories on the export and import sides that converged over the period.

General trade overview

Export volumes halved while prices rose, masking the severity of the volume decline

EU export volumes fell from 16,308 tonnes in 2015 to 7,825 tonnes in 2025, a contraction of 52%. This is a far steeper decline than the 34% drop in value terms, because unit export prices rose by 37.6% over the same period (from €9,057/t to €12,464/t). In other words, price inflation partially offset what was a dramatic physical withdrawal of EU-made soles from non-EU markets.

Import growth was both volume- and price-driven

On the import side, volumes grew by 43.4% (from 4,559 tonnes to 6,538 tonnes) while unit prices rose by 18.4% (from €12,566/t to €14,884/t). The combination of higher volumes and higher prices pushed the import bill up by 69.9% in value terms. Notably, imports peaked in volume in 2022 at 9,129 tonnes, likely reflecting the post-pandemic restocking cycle and supply-chain disruptions that temporarily favoured nearby sourcing. Since then, import volumes have moderated somewhat.

The trade intensity of the product increased sharply

Despite — or because of — the rebalancing of flows, the trade intensity of the EU in this product rose from 11.4% in 2015 to 19.9% in 2025 (+74.9%). The EU economy became significantly more exposed to international trade in this segment, even as its net exporter status was eroding. The net import reliance indicator moved from −7.7% (net exporter) to −1.5%, confirming that the EU now consumes nearly as many imported soles as it exports.

2. Geographic Reorientation: Nearshoring Corridors, China's Enduring Weight, and Emerging Suppliers

China remains the dominant import source, but its share is no longer growing

China was the EU's largest supplier of outer soles and heels throughout the period, with imports valued at €33.5 million in 2015 and €45.4 million in 2025 (+35.6%). However, China's import value peaked at €81.8 million in 2022 before declining sharply. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 3,640 to 2,538 (−30.3%), confirming that the EU diversified its import base away from heavy reliance on a single supplier.

Western Balkan and North African countries gained dramatically as import sources

Several nearshoring partner countries saw explosive growth in their soles-and-heel exports to the EU:

Top import partners

Albania's surge is particularly striking: from a marginal supplier in 2015 to the EU's second-largest import source by 2025, surpassing traditional partners like Bosnia and Herzegovina and Türkiye. Morocco's trajectory is similarly impressive, more than tripling its shipments to the EU. These two countries are key nodes in European footwear nearshoring networks, and the data suggests that the EU increasingly sources intermediate components — not just finished shoes — from these assembly hubs.

EU exports are oriented toward the same nearshore assembly corridors

The top destinations for EU exports of outer soles and heels are precisely the countries where European footwear brands operate assembly lines: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tunisia, and Morocco. Together, these four countries absorbed the majority of EU export value. However, export flows to most of these partners have declined:

Top export destinations

The decline in exports to these assembly countries, even as their shipments to the EU have grown, points to a structural shift: nearshore factories are increasingly sourcing their own soles and heels locally or from Asian suppliers rather than importing them from the EU. The EU's role as sole supplier to its own offshored footwear chain is diminishing.

Supply volatility is highest for newer, smaller suppliers

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import flows highlights that newer supply relationships are also the most volatile. Bangladesh (CV: 0.91), Albania (CV: 0.79), and Viet Nam (CV: 0.72) show the highest year-to-year instability on the import side. By contrast, China (CV: 0.20) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (CV: 0.28) display more predictable trade patterns. A notable price shock was detected in EU export prices to Morocco in 2022, with a 26.1% price shift and an abnormality score of 16.2, likely linked to post-pandemic logistics cost spikes and energy price inflation.

3. Industrial Contraction in Europe and the Rubber–Plastics Divergence

Domestic production collapsed in volume terms

EU production volumes of outer soles and heels fell from 1.77 billion items in 2015 to just 328 million in 2025, an 81.5% decline. In value terms, the contraction was less severe — from €1.37 billion to €903 million (−34.1%) — indicating that surviving production has shifted toward higher-value products. This dramatic volume decline points to significant capacity rationalisation or plant closures in the EU, particularly in the lower-value segments of the market that have been absorbed by Asian or nearshore suppliers.

Italy is the undisputed EU hub but is losing ground

According to the specialisation data, Italy holds a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.72 and accounts for 48.8% of EU extra-EU export value in this product. Italy's exports, however, fell from €88.5 million in 2015 to €53.5 million in 2025 (−39.5%). Other EU countries with notable specialisation include Portugal (RSCA: 0.71), Romania (0.50), and Spain (0.42), but none of them compensates for Italy's dominance or its declining trend.

Plastics soles dominate exports but are in sharper decline

The sub-product breakdown reveals a clear divergence between the rubber and plastics segments. In exports, plastics soles (64062090) are the larger category by volume but have experienced a steeper decline: from 10,567 tonnes in 2015 to 5,087 tonnes in 2025 (−52%). Rubber soles (64062010) also declined, from 5,741 tonnes to 2,739 tonnes (−52%), so both sub-categories contracted at similar rates in volume. However, rubber soles' export unit values rose more sharply (+35.3%, from €10,483/t to €14,180/t) compared to plastics (+39.2%, from €8,283/t to €11,539/t), suggesting some upmarket repositioning in both segments.

On the import side, the picture is more nuanced. Rubber sole imports grew from 2,453 tonnes to 3,807 tonnes (+55%) and plastics sole imports grew from 2,106 tonnes to 2,721 tonnes (+29%). Rubber sole imports thus grew faster, and at higher unit values (€16,474/t vs. €12,693/t for plastics in 2025), suggesting that the EU increasingly sources premium rubber soles from abroad.

The export market became slightly more concentrated geographically

While imports diversified (HHI fell 30%), the export concentration HHI edged up from 684 to 808 (+18%). This reflects the fact that as EU exports to smaller or more distant markets (e.g., Algeria, Belarus) collapsed, the remaining export flows became more concentrated on a handful of Western Balkan and North African partners. The EU's export base in this product has narrowed even as its import base has broadened.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in outer soles and heels (CN 640620) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The bloc moved from a position of clear net exporter (surplus of €90 million) to near trade balance, as export volumes halved while imports grew by over 40% in volume and 70% in value. This shift is rooted in the dramatic contraction of EU domestic production — down 81.5% in item count — and the increasing ability of nearshore assembly countries (Albania, Morocco) and Asian producers (China, Vietnam) to supply the intermediate components that European footwear manufacturing requires.

Italy remains the linchpin of the EU's remaining capacity in this segment, but its export decline of nearly 40% signals ongoing structural pressure. The geographic diversification of imports is a positive development from a supply-chain resilience perspective, though the high volatility of newer supplier relationships (Albania, Bangladesh, Vietnam) warrants continued monitoring. Looking ahead, the near-complete erosion of the trade surplus suggests that the EU's competitive advantage in standard rubber and plastics soles has significantly diminished, and the industry's future may lie in higher-value, specialised product niches where European producers can still command a price premium.