Market evolution: Plastic soles and heels (CN 64062090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of outer soles and heels of plastics (Combined Nomenclature code 64062090) within the European Union over the period 2015–2025. This product category, classified under HS 640620, is an essential input for the footwear manufacturing industry, supplying the bottom components that determine durability, traction, and comfort. The EU has historically been a net exporter in this segment, leveraging specialized production clusters — notably in Italy, Romania, and Portugal — to serve both domestic and international demand. However, the data reveals a decade of profound structural change: falling export volumes, surging imports, a collapsing production base, and a geographic reconfiguration of supply chains toward the Western Balkans and China. This report identifies and interprets the three most salient dynamics shaping this market.

1. A Vanishing Trade Surplus: The Dual Erosion of Export Capacity

The most striking macro-level trend over the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic narrowing of the EU's trade surplus in plastic soles and heels, which shrank by 62.3% — from €64.1 million in 2015 to just €24.2 million in 2025. This erosion is not the result of a single factor but of a dual dynamic: a sharp contraction in exports combined with steady growth in imports.

Export volumes have nearly halved while prices have risen sharply

EU exports of plastic soles and heels to non-EU countries declined substantially in both value and volume over the decade:

The quantity decline is more severe than the value decline, indicating that the EU has shifted toward higher-value, higher-priced export products — likely more specialized or premium-quality soles and heels. This could reflect a move up the value chain, where EU producers focus on niche, technically demanding products while ceding commodity-grade segments to lower-cost competitors. Nevertheless, the 39.3% price increase has not been nearly sufficient to offset the 51.9% volume loss, resulting in a net value decline of one-third.

Imports have grown steadily, driven by both volume and price increases

Over the same period, EU imports moved in the opposite direction:

Import growth has been robust across both dimensions. The 29.2% volume increase indicates growing reliance on foreign suppliers for components needed by the EU footwear industry. The 14.2% price increase is notably lower than the 39.3% rise in export prices, suggesting that imported soles and heels are drawn from a more competitive, cost-efficient supply base — consistent with the geographic shifts discussed below.

The trade surplus has collapsed from €64 million to €24 million

The combined effect is a trade surplus in secular decline. While the EU remains a net exporter, the margin has thinned dramatically, falling to its lowest point on record in 2025. This trajectory, if sustained, could see the EU approach net-import status in this product category within the coming years.

2. The Western Balkans Pivot: A Reconfiguration of EU Footwear Supply Chains

The second major finding concerns the geographic reorientation of both EU import and export flows. The Western Balkans — particularly Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia — have emerged as increasingly central trading partners, while traditional partners like Morocco have seen their role diminish.

Albania has become a major import source, growing over tenfold

The most dramatic single-country shift in the data is Albania's emergence as a major supplier of plastic soles and heels to the EU:

Albania's imports grew by a factor of 12, rising from a minor supplier to the EU's third-largest import source by value. Combined with the growth of Bosnia and Herzegovina (now the second-largest import partner) and Serbia, the Western Balkans region has consolidated its role as a key extension of the EU's footwear manufacturing ecosystem. This pattern is consistent with the well-documented nearshoring trend in European manufacturing, where EU firms have relocated or outsourced production to nearby countries with lower labour costs but geographic proximity, trade preferences (Stabilisation and Association Agreements), and cultural ties.

By contrast, Morocco — once a significant nearshore partner — has seen its share collapse by 78.3%, suggesting a shift in outsourcing preferences away from North Africa toward Southeastern Europe.

China has nearly doubled its share despite being geographically distant

Chinese imports grew by 96.3%, rising from €5.6 million to €10.9 million. China remained the EU's largest single import source throughout the period. This growth, combined with a price shock detected in 2023 (an abnormality score of 6.9 and a −17.7% unit price shift in that year), points to competitive pricing pressure from Chinese suppliers. The 2023 price shock may reflect overcapacity, destocking, or aggressive pricing strategies by Chinese manufacturers in a softening global demand environment.

EU export flows have become more concentrated on fewer partners

On the export side, several traditional destinations saw sharp declines:

The decline in exports to Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina is particularly notable: as these countries have developed their own manufacturing capacity (evidenced by their rising exports to the EU), they need fewer semi-finished inputs from EU producers. This is the natural consequence of the nearshoring dynamic described above — components that were once exported from the EU for assembly in the Balkans are now increasingly produced locally. Exports to Belarus nearly halved, likely influenced by EU sanctions and geopolitical tensions following 2022. Nigeria's near-total collapse (−93.3%) may reflect currency instability or trade diversion.

Market concentration has risen on both the import and export sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,327 to 1,665 (+25.4%), while for exports it rose from 792 to 1,012 (+27.7%). Both indicate increasing concentration — fewer partners accounting for larger shares of trade. For imports, this reflects the growing dominance of China and Albania. For exports, it reflects the shrinkage of smaller export destinations and the continued importance of Albania, Tunisia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina as primary outlets.

3. Industrial Hollowing: The Collapse of EU Production and Its Implications

The third key dynamic is the dramatic contraction of EU domestic production of plastic soles and heels — a trend that underpins the trade shifts described above.

EU production has collapsed in volume and declined in value

The PRODCOM data reveals an extraordinary decline in manufacturing output:

Production volumes have fallen by 85.6% — an almost complete hollowing-out of the EU's manufacturing base for this product. That the value decline (−31.3%) is far less severe than the volume decline indicates that remaining EU production has shifted dramatically toward higher-value, lower-volume output. The unit production value (value per item) has increased substantially, consistent with a specialization strategy where EU manufacturers focus on premium, technically advanced soles while abandoning mass-market segments to foreign competitors.

Italy remains the dominant producer, but overall EU specialization is fragmenting

Specialization analysis for 2025 confirms Italy's central role:

Italy alone accounts for over half of EU production and has the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) score of 0.748, indicating strong specialization. Romania and Portugal form a second tier. The remaining EU member states show very low specialization, with several large economies (Sweden, Netherlands, Belgium) displaying RSCA scores near −1.0, indicating they are net importers with negligible domestic production.

Within the EU, import and export roles are increasingly polarized

The top importing EU member states in 2025 include Italy (€20.1 million), Germany (€3.0 million), Romania (€2.6 million), and Poland (€1.9 million). Notably, Italy is both the largest importer and the largest exporter — a pattern consistent with a hub economy that imports components from lower-cost countries (e.g., Albania, China) for use in higher-value-added footwear manufacturing, then re-exports finished or semi-finished products.

Poland's import growth of 1,288.9% (from €137,078 to €1,903,938) is remarkable and suggests that Poland has emerged as a significant manufacturing or assembly node in the European footwear supply chain — likely absorbing production relocated from higher-cost Western European locations.

On the export side, Italy's dominance has eroded: its exports fell by 41.8%, from €58.3 million to €34.0 million. Germany (+18.7%), Austria (+108.6%), and Spain (+9.7%) saw gains, but these were insufficient to offset Italy's decline. The net import reliance of the EU, while still negative (indicating net exporter status), has improved from −10.1% to −7.9%, reflecting the faster growth of imports relative to exports.

Conclusion

The EU market for plastic outer soles and heels (CN 64062090) has undergone a profound structural transformation over the 2015–2025 period. Three interlinked dynamics define this evolution:

1. The trade surplus is eroding rapidly. Export volumes have halved while imports have grown by nearly 50%, compressing the EU's surplus from €64 million to €24 million. Rising export prices signal a shift toward higher-value products, but this has not been sufficient to offset the volume decline.

2. Supply chains have pivoted toward the Western Balkans and China. Albania's imports into the EU grew over tenfold, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia also gained ground. China nearly doubled its share and remains the single largest import source. Meanwhile, Morocco's role has collapsed and some export markets (Belarus, Nigeria) have contracted sharply.

3. EU production has hollowed out in volume but is concentrating in higher-value segments. Domestic production fell 85.6% by quantity, with Italy accounting for over half of remaining output and exhibiting the strongest comparative advantage. The EU's manufacturing footprint is increasingly limited to a small number of specialized producers, while the broader industry relies on imported components.

Together, these trends paint a picture of an industry in transition — moving from a vertically integrated, export-oriented European manufacturing base toward a more fragmented model in which the EU imports lower-cost components from nearby and Asian suppliers, while retaining a high-value production niche concentrated in Italy and a handful of other member states. The rising concentration indices and increasing trade intensity (from 13.1% to 17.8%) confirm that the EU's exposure to international supply and demand conditions in this segment has grown, making it more sensitive to external shocks — as illustrated by the 2023 Chinese price shock detected in the data.