Market evolution: Food preparations (CN 2106) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 2106 ("Food preparations, n.e.s.") is a broad residual category encompassing protein concentrates, dietary supplements, prepared meals, herbal infusions, and a wide array of other edible preparations. It is one of the EU's largest food-industry trade headings. Over the decade to 2025, the EU's extra-EU trade in this product category underwent a striking transformation: export values nearly doubled while the trade surplus more than doubled, the EU shifted from a net importer to a pronounced net exporter, and the geographic footprint of trade expanded markedly towards Asia and the Americas. This report examines these dynamics in three thematic sections, drawing exclusively on the data provided.

1. A Trade Surplus That More Than Doubled: Value Growth Outpacing Volume

1.1 Export and import values both set new records, but exports grew much faster

Between 2015 and 2025, extra-EU exports of CN 2106 rose from €5.85 billion to €11.40 billion, an increase of 94.8%. Imports over the same period grew from €2.03 billion to €3.66 billion (+80.9%). Because exports started from a higher base and grew faster, the EU's trade surplus widened from €3.83 billion to €7.74 billion — a gain of 102.1%.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.2 Price increases account for roughly half of the value expansion

Volume growth alone does not explain the headline figures. Export quantities rose 29.8% (from 1.37 million tonnes to 1.77 million tonnes), while the average export price climbed 50.1% (from €4,288/t to €6,435/t). On the import side, quantities grew 40.7% (425,000 t → 598,000 t) and the average import price increased 28.6% (€4,765/t → €6,128/t). The faster price appreciation on the export side partly reflects a compositional shift towards higher-value food preparations and, more broadly, the global food-price inflation cycle of 2021–2023.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.3 The sub-heading 210690 dominates, but 210610 shows interesting price dynamics

At the six-digit level, sub-heading 210690 ("Food preparations, n.e.s.") accounts for the vast majority of both trade flows. In 2025, it represented 97% of export value (€11.09 bn of €11.40 bn) and 94% of import value (€3.44 bn of €3.66 bn). Sub-heading 210610 ("Protein concentrates and textured protein substances") is much smaller but has seen its export price rise from €5,899/t in 2015 to a peak of €7,297/t in 2023 before falling back to €6,135/t in 2025 — likely reflecting the boom-and-correction cycle in global plant-protein markets.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

2. Shifting Geographical Patterns and Diversifying Supply

2.1 The United Kingdom remains the dominant partner, but Asia-Pacific is the fastest-growing region

The United Kingdom is by far the EU's largest trade partner for CN 2106 on both the export and import side, reflecting deeply integrated food supply chains. In 2025, it absorbed €1.72 billion of EU exports and supplied €875 million of imports. However, the most dramatic percentage growth has occurred with Asian partners:

Source: General Overview — top partners

On the export side, China has been the breakout destination:

China's import growth from the EU (in value) and the surge in EU imports from Sri Lanka (+878.5%) and Indonesia (+436.6%) stand out as markers of deepening global food-preparation trade with Asia. The Sri Lanka and Indonesia surges likely relate to tea-based preparations, spice extracts, and palm-oil-derived food ingredients, respectively.

2.2 Trade concentration has fallen markedly, signalling diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports dropped from 1,684 to 1,159 (–31.2%) and for exports from 601 to 481 (–19.9%). Values below 1,500 are generally considered indicative of a low-concentration market. The EU's import structure moved from moderate to low concentration, meaning that sourcing risks are spread across a wider set of countries — a positive development from a supply-security standpoint.

Source: Concentration — HHI

2.3 Germany, Italy, and Poland have been the EU's fastest-growing exporters among large Member States

At the EU Member State level, Germany's extra-EU exports grew from €1.18 billion to €2.77 billion (+134.8%), cementing its position as the leading EU exporter. Italy saw the most spectacular relative growth (+243.9%, from €335 million to €1.15 billion), and Poland rose from €222 million to €703 million (+216.5%). The Netherlands and France also remain major players but grew more modestly (65% and 39% respectively). On the import side, the Netherlands leads (€946 million in 2025), followed by Germany (€610 million) and France (€518 million, +154%).

Source: General Overview — top reporters

The strong performance of Italy, Spain, and Poland — economies with sizeable agri-food sectors — suggests that the EU's southern and eastern periphery is increasingly competitive in food preparations destined for non-EU markets.

2.4 Import volatility is highest for Asian sourcing, while export flows to the UK are remarkably stable

The coefficient of variation (CV) of annual import values highlights significant volatility in supply from Sri Lanka (CV = 0.664), Vietnam (0.594), Indonesia (0.367), and China (0.360). By contrast, import flows from Switzerland (0.042) and the UK (0.273) are far steadier. On the export side, the UK again shows the lowest volatility (CV = 0.053), while the United States (0.303) displays more year-to-year fluctuation — possibly linked to regulatory or exchange-rate factors.

Source: Volatility — bars

3. From Net Importer to Net Exporter: A Structural Shift in the EU's Position

3.1 Net import reliance swung from positive to strongly negative

Perhaps the most striking structural change in the decade is the reversal of the EU's net position. The net import reliance indicator moved from +0.40% in 2015 to –0.73% in 2025, implying that the EU has become a substantial net exporter relative to its own market size. The indicator reached its most extreme negative value (–1.06) before settling, suggesting a degree of over-shoot possibly linked to post-COVID export surges. This swing of 282.9 percentage points in the indicator is one of the most dramatic reversals observable across EU product categories.

Source: Net import reliance

3.2 EU production of food preparations has expanded enormously

The reported EU production data show a quantity increase from 784 thousand tonnes in 2015 to 9.62 million tonnes in 2025 (+1,126.8%) and a value increase from €4.82 billion to €30.90 billion (+541.5%). While some of this apparent surge may reflect changes in statistical reporting coverage or the inclusion of additional Member States' data over time, even taking the figures at face value, the expansion is extraordinary. It underscores a major build-up in EU processing capacity for food preparations — capacity that has partly been channelled into exports, thereby driving the surplus.

Source: Production volumes

3.3 Trade intensity and export propensity have declined, indicating faster growth of intra-EU demand

Despite the strong absolute growth in extra-EU exports, the EU's trade intensity (extra-EU trade as a share of production) fell from 5.1% to 2.7% (–48.4%), and export propensity (extra-EU exports as a share of production) declined from 2.4% to 1.7% (–30.2%). This seemingly paradoxical pattern — booming exports alongside falling trade intensity — is consistent with production growing even faster than exports. A larger domestic (intra-EU) market for food preparations, driven by changing consumer diets, health-supplement demand, and convenience-food trends, has absorbed much of the production increase.

Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability

3.4 Specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 show that the most specialised EU Member States in CN 2106 exports are Luxembourg (RSCA = 0.61), Slovenia (0.29), Poland (0.19), Latvia (0.17), and Austria (0.17). Conversely, Malta (–0.66), Finland (–0.52), Portugal (–0.38), Ireland (–0.38), and Romania (–0.21) display the weakest specialisation. This pattern suggests that several Central and Eastern European economies have built a genuine competitive edge in food preparations, potentially leveraging lower labour costs and proximity to key EU markets to develop export-oriented processing industries.

Source: Specialisation

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in food preparations (CN 2106) has been characterised by robust value growth on both the export and import sides, but with exports consistently outpacing imports. The resulting trade surplus more than doubled to €7.74 billion, underpinned by a combination of genuine volume expansion and significant price appreciation. Geographically, trade has diversified away from traditional European partners towards faster-growing markets in Asia (China, Indonesia, Sri Lanka) and the Americas (United States), while the United Kingdom has retained its position as the EU's single largest partner on both flows. Structurally, the EU has transitioned from a net-importing to a net-exporting position, as massive production growth — though likely amplified by reporting changes — has more than kept pace with rising domestic and external demand. Import concentration has fallen, reducing supply-chain risk, and several Central and Eastern European Member States have emerged as specialised exporters. The key uncertainty going forward is whether the upward price trajectory seen since 2021 will stabilise, and whether the EU can sustain its export competitiveness against a backdrop of evolving global food-safety regulations and shifting consumer preferences.