Market evolution: Active yeasts and baking powders (CN 2102) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in products classified under customs code 2102 ("Yeasts, active or inactive; other dead single-cell micro-organisms, prepared baking powders") over the period 2015–2025. The data covers trade flows between the EU and non-EU countries, with the exception of intra-EU exchanges.

Overall, the EU has consolidated its position as a major net exporter in this sector. Both exports and imports grew substantially over the decade, but exports outpaced imports in value terms, widening the EU's trade surplus. At the same time, the EU significantly increased its openness to global markets, as shown by a near-doubling of both trade intensity and export propensity. These trends took place against a backdrop of supply-chain disruptions, geopolitical realignments, and notable price shocks in 2020–2022.

1. A Decade of Expanding EU Competitiveness in Global Yeast Markets

1.1 EU exports nearly doubled in value while maintaining a healthy trade surplus

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total exports of CN 2102 products rose from €249.1 million to €481.4 million, an increase of 93.3%. Over the same period, imports grew from €121.7 million to €266.2 million (+118.7%). The EU thus maintained a consistent and growing trade surplus throughout the period, moving from €127.4 million in 2015 to €215.2 million in 2025 (+69.0%). The surplus peaked at approximately €220.7 million in 2023.

1.2 Volume and price dynamics reveal structural shifts

Export volumes grew by 44.0% (from 99,826 t to 143,707 t), while the average unit export price increased from €2,495/t to €3,348/t (+34.2%). On the import side, volumes grew faster (+72.0%, from 94,628 t to 162,775 t), while the average import price rose from €1,286/t to €1,635/t (+27.1%).

The fact that EU exports command roughly double the unit price of imports reflects a well-known structural feature of this market: the EU tends to export higher-value products (notably active yeasts and specialised inactive yeast preparations) while importing a larger share of lower-priced goods. This price gap widened slightly over the period, suggesting that the EU has moved further up the value chain.

1.3 The EU's integration into global yeast markets deepened markedly

According to the trade intensity and export propensity indicators, the EU's trade intensity (trade as a share of production) rose from 14.0% to 33.9% (+141.7%), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) surged from 9.4% to 24.9% (+164.8%). This means that the EU yeast sector has become substantially more export-oriented and more integrated into global value chains over the past decade.

2. Geographical Diversification and Evolving Partner Dynamics

2.1 China and Turkey emerged as the fastest-growing EU import sources

The EU's import base broadened over the period, with China and Turkey registering the most dramatic growth among the top seven partners:

China's share of EU imports more than doubled over the decade, making it the single largest import partner by 2025. Turkey's rapid ascent is also noteworthy, reflecting the country's growing role as a yeast producer and exporter. Ukraine's strong growth, meanwhile, took place in the context of the country's deepening trade ties with the EU, though its trajectory was notably affected by the disruption of the Russia–Ukraine conflict from 2022 onward.

The United Kingdom, the EU's largest trading partner in this sector at the start of the period, saw only modest growth in imports (+19.1%), likely reflecting the effects of Brexit and the establishment of new customs procedures.

2.2 Export diversification accelerated, with Southeast Asia emerging as a key destination

On the export side, the EU's top partners remained the United Kingdom, the United States, and Switzerland, but several emerging markets registered striking growth:

Thailand stands out with a more than fourfold increase in EU exports, reflecting rising demand for yeast products in Southeast Asia's expanding food and beverage industries. The United States also became a significantly more important destination, nearly doubling its intake of EU yeast products.

2.3 Export concentration fell sharply as the EU diversified its customer base

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports fell from 725 to 491 (−32.2%), indicating a significant reduction in export concentration and a more diversified customer base. Import concentration also declined, though more modestly (from 1,127 to 1,016; −9.8%).

This diversification reduces the EU's exposure to demand shocks in any single market and is a sign of a mature, resilient export base.

3. Sub-Product Dynamics: Active Yeasts Lead Growth, While Price Shocks Remodel the Market

3.1 Active and inactive yeasts drove the bulk of trade growth

Breaking down CN 2102 by its three sub-headings, active yeasts (210210) and inactive yeasts (210220) accounted for the overwhelming majority of both imports and exports. Prepared baking powders (210230) represented a much smaller share in volume terms, though they tended to command higher unit prices.

Imports by sub-product (value, €M):

Exports by sub-product (value, €M):

Active yeasts were the fastest-growing export category, more than doubling in value over the period. This aligns with global trends toward industrial baking and fermentation applications, where high-quality active yeast is a critical input. On the import side, inactive yeasts—widely used in animal feed, flavouring, and nutritional supplements—grew fastest, likely reflecting EU demand from the food-processing and feed industries.

3.2 EU producers hold a clear price premium, especially in active yeasts

The unit-price data reveals a persistent and widening gap between EU export and import prices:

EU producers thus command roughly twice the price for active and inactive yeasts compared to what they pay for imported equivalents. This premium likely reflects the higher quality, brand recognition, and technical sophistication of EU yeast producers, notably the large Belgian and French firms that dominate exports. Baking powders, a more commoditised product, show a smaller price differential.

3.3 Belgium and France emerged as the EU's export powerhouses

On the EU Member State level, Belgium and France registered the most dramatic export growth:

Belgium and France together accounted for over €212 million in exports by 2025, representing nearly 44% of total EU exports. This concentration reflects the presence of major yeast manufacturers (such as Lesaffre in France and Puratos's yeast operations in Belgium) in these countries. The Netherlands also saw a striking surge in imports (+398.6%, from €8.2M to €41.1M), suggesting its role as a re-export or distribution hub.

3.4 Post-pandemic supply disruptions triggered pronounced price shocks in 2020–2022

The volatility and shock analysis reveals three notable price shock events concentrated around 2020–2022:

The extreme price spikes in EU exports to China and the United States in 2022 are consistent with the global supply-chain disruptions and energy-cost inflation that followed the COVID-19 pandemic and, in the case of food ingredients, the disruption of Black Sea grain supplies due to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The sharp price drop in exports to Saudi Arabia in 2020, meanwhile, likely reflects pandemic-driven demand contraction in that market.

Among import partners, China and Turkey exhibited the highest coefficient of variation (0.36 and 0.33 respectively), suggesting that these supply sources are more volatile and potentially less reliable than traditional European partners such as Ukraine (CV 0.11) or the United Kingdom (CV 0.25).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in CN 2102 products has been characterised by robust and broad-based growth, with exports nearly doubling in value and the trade surplus widening substantially. The EU has deepened its integration into global yeast markets, with trade intensity and export propensity both roughly tripling relative to domestic production.

Several structural shifts stand out. First, the EU's export base has diversified significantly, reducing concentration risk. Second, the import landscape has shifted geographically, with China and Turkey replacing some of the traditional European suppliers' relative importance. Third, active yeasts have emerged as the fastest-growing export category, reflecting the EU's strength in high-value, technology-intensive yeast products. Fourth, the price premium enjoyed by EU exports—roughly double the import price for active and inactive yeasts—underscores the competitive advantage of European producers in quality and branding.

Looking ahead, the main vulnerabilities relate to the growing import reliance on politically or logistically volatile sources (notably China and Turkey) and the potential for further supply-chain disruptions. Nevertheless, the EU's net exporter status, diversified export base, and strong value-chain positioning suggest that the sector is well placed to sustain its positive trajectory.