Market evolution: Ice cream and edible ice (CN 2105) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in ice cream and other edible ice (Customs code 2105) from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the EU has solidified its position as a major global exporter while also experiencing significant growth in imports. The analysis reveals a market characterized by robust growth, diversification of partners, and increasing integration into global value chains, all while maintaining a consistently positive and expanding trade balance.

Surging Growth and a Strengthening Trade Surplus

The EU's trade in ice cream (CN 2105) underwent a period of strong expansion between 2015 and 2025. Both export and import values increased dramatically, but the surge in exports outpaced that of imports, leading to a significant strengthening of the EU's trade surplus.

Exports grew significantly in value and volume

EU exports to non-EU countries experienced remarkable growth over the decade. The total value of exports increased by 131.5%, rising from €532.4 million in 2015 to €1.23 billion in 2025. Export volume grew by 61.6% (from 179,333 tonnes to 289,821 tonnes), indicating that rising prices, not just higher quantities, drove the value increase. The average export price per tonne rose by 43.2% over the same period.

Import growth was even more pronounced

Imports grew at an even faster rate. Their value increased by 194.4%, from €100.1 million to €294.7 million. Import volume rose by 54.5%, with the average import price nearly doubling (a 90.5% increase). This steeper price rise for imports compared to exports contributed to a shift in trade terms.

The EU's trade surplus expanded substantially

Despite faster import value growth, the EU's position as a net exporter in this sector was reinforced. The trade balance in value grew by 116.9%, increasing from €432.2 million in 2015 to €937.6 million in 2025. This confirms that the scale of EU exports is substantially larger than its imports.

A Diversifying and Dynamic Market Structure

The market's structure evolved notably, with production volumes growing, trade becoming more diversified, and the EU's competitive advantages strengthening in several member states.

EU production volumes increased

Supporting the trade growth, EU production of ice cream expanded. Production quantity rose by 23.9%, and its value increased by 17.8% over the period for which data is available. This indicates a strengthening of the EU's domestic industrial base for the sector.

Trade concentration decreased, indicating diversification

The concentration of trade flows, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), fell for both imports and exports. The import HHI for value dropped by 53.6% (from 6,384 to 2,965), and the volume-based HHI fell by 61.4%. This indicates a significant diversification of the EU's import sources away from a concentrated set of partners. Export concentration also decreased, though more modestly (value HHI down 9.1%).

Leading EU exporters and importers shifted

The top EU exporters by value remained dominated by major economies like France (€313.3m) and the Netherlands (€99.3m), but Italy showed exceptional growth (410.9%). Poland also emerged as a major exporter (€78.2m). On the import side, Ireland (€53.5m), Germany (€54.0m), and France (€41.9m) became the largest importers within the EU, with Bulgaria and Greece showing particularly high percentage growth from low bases.

Navigating Volatility and Enhancing Strategic Position

The trade data reveals varying degrees of volatility across partner countries and a clear trend towards reduced import dependence and increased export orientation for the EU.

Volatility was highest with emerging and non-traditional partners

Analysis of trade volatility shows that EU trade flows with major, established partners like the United Kingdom and Switzerland were relatively stable (low coefficient of variation). In contrast, flows with partners like the Russian Federation, Brazil, and Korea, Republic of exhibited much higher volatility, suggesting more opportunistic or sensitive trade relationships.

The EU's net export position strengthened and trade intensity grew

The EU's net import reliance became more negative, moving from -3.2% in 2015 to -12.7% in 2025. A negative value indicates the EU is a net exporter; this change underscores the strengthening of its export surplus. Concurrently, the trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production) more than tripled, rising from 5.7% to 17.5%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew from 4.5% to 14.7%. This indicates that the EU ice cream industry became significantly more export-oriented and integrated into global markets.

Key partnership dynamics: The UK remains dominant, but new patterns emerge

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single trade partner for both exports (€563.5m) and imports (€137.2m), reflecting deep historical ties. However, the fastest growth in imports came from Serbia (839.3%) and Ukraine (32,005.2%). For exports, the United States showed a massive increase of 1,103.1%, becoming the second-largest destination (€122.0m), followed by robust growth in Switzerland and China.

Conclusion

The EU's ice cream and edible ice market (CN 2105) demonstrated strong performance and strategic evolution between 2015 and 2025. The sector is characterized by vigorous growth in both exports and production, a solidifying and expanding trade surplus, and a clear trend towards greater diversification in trade partners and improved trade intensity. While the UK remains the cornerstone partnership, the EU has successfully expanded its export footprint to markets like the USA, China, and Australia. The data suggests an industry that is increasingly competitive, export-oriented, and integrated into the global economy, while managing volatility by maintaining a core of stable, long-term partnerships.