Market evolution: Infant food preparations (CN 2104) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in Combined Nomenclature heading 2104, which covers two distinct sub-products: soups and broths (CN 210410) and finely homogenised infant food and dietetic preparations in containers of ≤ 250 g (CN 210420). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU has consolidated its position as a major net exporter in this product category. Total exports rose from €338 million to €442 million (+30.7 %), while imports declined from €130 million to €106 million (−18.3 %), widening the EU's trade surplus from €209 million to €336 million (+61.2 %). Behind these aggregate figures lie three major dynamics: (1) a structural strengthening of EU export competitiveness, (2) a dramatic reorientation of trade partnerships driven by geopolitical events, and (3) a stark divergence between the two sub-product segments, with infant food preparations experiencing a near-total collapse in imports.

1. The EU's Deepening Export Advantage: Rising Surplus and Growing Self-Sufficiency

1.1 Exports grew faster in value than in volume, reflecting price gains

Between 2015 and 2025, EU export value increased by 30.7 %, while export volume rose only 16.7 %. This gap reflects a 12.0 % increase in average export unit values (from €2,949/t to €3,302/t), suggesting that EU producers have been able to capture higher value through product upgrading, brand positioning, or input cost pass-through. The highest export value reached during the period was €445 million (2024), while the peak export volume was 139,984 tonnes.

1.2 Imports declined sharply in both volume and value

EU imports tell a contrasting story. Import volumes fell by 31.7 %, from 36,678 tonnes to 25,056 tonnes, while import values dropped 18.3 %. Notably, average import unit values rose by 19.7 % (from €3,541/t to €4,237/t), meaning that the EU now imports smaller quantities at higher per-unit prices—a pattern consistent with a shift towards more specialised or premium import niches rather than bulk sourcing.

1.3 The EU is increasingly a net exporter

The net import reliance metric, which measures the trade balance relative to apparent consumption, moved from −2.4 % in 2015 to −7.0 % in 2025 (a negative value indicates net exports). This near-tripling of the export surplus in relative terms confirms that the EU's domestic production has more than kept pace with consumption. Indeed, EU production of CN 2104 grew from 1.22 billion kg to 1.59 billion kg (+30.3 %) in volume and from €3.68 billion to €5.17 billion (+40.8 %) in value over the period.

1.4 Trade intensity and export propensity both increased

The EU's trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) rose from 7.4 % to 10.4 %, while export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew even more strongly, from 4.9 % to 8.6 % (+73.8 %). This indicates that the EU's growing output is increasingly oriented towards external markets rather than being absorbed domestically.

2. Geopolitical Reorientation: Brexit, Sanctions, and the Rise of New Partners

2.1 The United Kingdom remains the dominant partner but its role has structurally shifted

The United Kingdom is by far the EU's largest trading partner for CN 2104, accounting for €172 million in exports and €31 million in imports in 2025. However, the post-Brexit landscape has been markedly asymmetric:

• Exports to the UK grew modestly from €157 million to €172 million (+9.7 %), showing resilience despite new customs barriers.
• Imports from the UK plunged from €61 million to €31 million (−50.3 %), with the trough reaching just €21 million. This collapse likely reflects the end of frictionless trade after the transition period expired on 31 December 2020.

2.2 Exports to the Russian Federation collapsed following sanctions

EU exports to Russia fell from €12.8 million in 2015 to €2.8 million in 2025 (−78.0 %), with the steepest decline occurring after 2022 in the context of EU sanctions and Russian counter-measures following the invasion of Ukraine. The high coefficient of variation (0.60) for this trade flow confirms the disruptive nature of this shift.

2.3 African and American markets absorbed the redirected export volumes

Several new or expanded partners compensated for the loss of the Russian market:

The surge in exports to West and Central African countries (Burkina Faso, Congo DR, Somalia) likely reflects humanitarian food aid or growing demand for affordable prepared foods in rapidly urbanising markets. The strong growth in US exports points to successful market penetration by EU food brands in a high-value market.

2.4 Import sources diversified substantially

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,982 to 1,626 (−45.5 %), indicating a significant reduction in import concentration. While the UK still dominates, new sources have gained share:

Japan's emergence as a major import source (from €3.4 million to €12.5 million) is particularly striking and may reflect growing EU demand for Asian-style soup preparations or specialised dietetic products.

2.5 Spain consolidated its position as the EU's leading exporter

At the EU Member State level, Spain surged from €85 million to €156 million in exports (+83.0 %), accounting for over a third of all EU exports by 2025. By contrast, the Netherlands (−55.8 %) and Poland (−53.6 %) saw their export shares decline sharply:

Spain's dominance aligns with its revealed comparative advantage (RSCA of 0.30, RCA of 1.87), while Slovakia (RCA 4.77) and Romania (RCA 3.50) show even stronger specialisation, albeit from much smaller bases.

3. A Tale of Two Segments: Soups Thrive While Infant Food Imports Vanish

3.1 The two sub-products followed opposite trajectories

CN 2104 bundles two fundamentally different product categories. The segment breakdown reveals that their trade dynamics diverged sharply over the decade:

3.2 Infant food (CN 210420) imports collapsed after 2019

The most dramatic trend in the entire dataset is the near-disappearance of infant food imports. Volumes peaked at 6,688 tonnes in 2019 before falling to just 1,806 tonnes in 2025 (−73.0 %). The decline in value was even steeper (−83.2 %), driven by a simultaneous collapse in unit prices:

The 2020–2021 collapse coincides with the combined shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and the end of the Brexit transition period. Given that the United Kingdom was historically a major source of infant food preparations for the EU (and the top import partner overall), the new customs frictions and regulatory divergence likely permanently disrupted these supply chains. The fact that volumes have not recovered by 2025, despite some price stabilisation, suggests a structural reorientation rather than a temporary shock.

3.3 Soups (CN 210410) drove the overall export growth

Soup exports grew from €244 million to €337 million (+37.9 %), with volumes rising from 88,587 to 109,938 tonnes (+24.1 %). Notably, export volumes spiked to 113,002 tonnes in 2020, likely reflecting stockpiling and pantry-loading behaviour during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, before moderating in subsequent years. Export unit values for soups rose from €2,758/t to €3,067/t (+11.2 %), indicating modest price upgrading.

3.4 Infant food exports held steady in value despite falling volumes

EU infant food exports (CN 210420) increased from €94 million to €105 million (+11.8 %) even as volumes declined from 26,173 to 24,036 tonnes (−8.2 %). This was made possible by a 21.8 % rise in export unit values (from €3,594/t to €4,375/t). The implication is that EU exporters have moved upmarket—shipping higher-value, premium-positioned infant food products while ceding lower-margin volume segments.

3.5 Import prices for infant food collapsed from premium to commodity levels

One of the most striking price dynamics concerns the import price for CN 210420. In 2015, infant food preparations commanded an average import price of €8,436/t—nearly three times the price of soups (€2,913/t). By 2025, this premium had eroded to just €3,285/t, barely above the soup import price of €4,311/t. This convergence suggests either a shift in the product mix of remaining imports (towards simpler, lower-cost preparations) or a repricing of the segment as EU domestic production rendered premium imports less necessary.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 2104 underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc strengthened its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus widening by 61 % to €336 million, underpinned by robust production growth (+30.3 % by volume) and expanding export propensity. Geopolitical shocks—most notably Brexit and Russia sanctions—permanently reconfigured trade flows: the UK's role as an import source halved, Russian export markets collapsed, and new frontiers opened in Sub-Saharan Africa, the United States, and Japan. At the product level, the story is one of stark divergence: soups and broths drove overall growth, while infant food imports essentially vanished after 2020, falling by over 80 % in value. The EU's infant food market appears to have become overwhelmingly domestically supplied, with remaining imports shifting from premium to commodity price levels. Looking ahead, the key risks to this favourable balance include potential retaliatory trade measures, input cost inflation, and the evolving competitive landscape in emerging markets where EU exporters have recently gained ground.