Market evolution: Firearms and similar devices (CN 9303) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of European Union trade in firearms and similar devices classified under Combined Nomenclature heading 9303 over the period 2015–2025. The category encompasses sporting shotguns and rifles, muzzle-loading firearms, signal flare pistols, blank-ammunition revolvers, captive-bolt humane killers, and line-throwing guns—excluding military weapons (9301) and conventional revolvers and pistols (9302). The EU is a major global producer and exporter in this sector, home to storied manufacturers such as Beretta (Italy), Sako (Finland), and Česká zbrojovka (Czechia).

Over the eleven-year window, EU exports of CN 9303 goods rose from approximately €387 million to nearly €509 million (a 31.5% increase), while imports grew more rapidly in relative terms from €52 million to €85 million (+62.8%). The EU consistently maintained a large trade surplus, which widened from €335 million to €423 million (General Overview). Behind these headline figures, however, lie significant structural shifts in pricing, product composition, partner geography, and market concentration that merit closer examination.

1. A Deepening Export Surplus Driven by Value Rather Than Volume

The EU's trade surplus widened on the back of rising unit values

The EU has been a consistent and substantial net exporter of CN 9303 products throughout the entire period. The trade balance in goods grew from €334.5 million in 2015 to €423.4 million in 2025, a 26.6% increase. However, the composition of that growth is revealing: export volumes (in tonnes) rose 16.1%, while export value increased 31.5%, indicating that rising prices—rather than sheer quantity—powered much of the surplus expansion.

Source: General Overview

Import prices grew far faster than export prices, narrowing the per-unit gap

A striking dynamic is that import prices per tonne surged 42.5% over the period, compared with just 13.2% for exports. By 2025, the average imported firearm product cost €113,270 per tonne versus €159,558 for exports—still a significant gap, but one that narrowed considerably from the €79,476 vs. €140,911 differential in 2015. This suggests that the EU is increasingly sourcing higher-value firearms from abroad, or that foreign suppliers have been able to command premium pricing in the EU market. On the supplementary-unit side, import prices per piece rose from €223 to €318 (+42.2%), while export prices per piece climbed from €457 to €579 (+26.7%).

Production volumes declined while production values surged—evidence of premiumisation

EU domestic production of CN 9303 items fell from 1,378,123 pieces in 2015 to 1,260,000 in 2025 (–8.6%), yet production value rose from €360 million to €489 million (+36.0%). This divergence is a hallmark of premiumisation: EU manufacturers are producing fewer but higher-value firearms. This aligns with the broader industry trend of EU producers focusing on precision-engineered, high-margin sporting and hunting arms rather than competing in the mass-market segment (Production volumes).

2. Product-Level Shifts: Rifled-Bore Shotguns Gaining Ground as Smooth-Bore and Muzzle-Loaders Recede

The rifled-bore shotgun segment (930330) emerged as the EU's dominant export category

A granular look at CN 9303's four sub-headings reveals a clear structural shift in the EU's export profile. Rifled-bore sporting shotguns (930330) grew from 311,516 pieces exported in 2015 to 451,381 in 2025 (+44.9% by supplementary quantity), and their export value rose from €125.6 million to €238.6 million (+90.0%). By 2025, 930330 had overtaken the traditional smooth-bore segment (930320) to become the largest export category by value.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Smooth-bore shotgun exports (930320) stagnated in volume and value

Smooth-bore sporting and hunting shotguns, historically the backbone of EU firearms exports, saw their volume decline from 311,780 pieces to 260,198 (–16.5%). In value terms they barely grew—from €231 million to €238 million (+3.0%). The stagnation of this segment, despite its high unit export prices (€741–€915 per piece), may reflect shifting consumer preferences in key markets such as the United States, where tactical and rifled firearms have gained popularity at the expense of traditional sporting shotguns.

Muzzle-loading firearms (930310) are a shrinking niche

The muzzle-loading segment contracted on both the export and import sides. EU exports of 930310 fell from 160,984 to 101,599 pieces (–36.9%), and imports from 2,052 to 307 pieces (–85.0%). This is consistent with the niche nature of the product, largely confined to historical re-enactment and traditional hunting communities. Import values in this segment also displayed extreme volatility, with per-piece import prices swinging wildly from year to year.

Import structure mirrors exports, with 930330 and 930320 dominating

On the import side, rifled-bore (930330) and smooth-bore (930320) shotguns together accounted for the vast majority of volume and value. Notably, the "other firearms" category (930390) saw import value more than double from €3.2 million to €7.4 million (+128.8%), suggesting growing EU demand for non-standard firearms such as line-throwing guns, captive-bolt killers, and signal devices—likely driven by maritime safety and industrial applications.

3. Geopolitical Disruptions Reshaped Trade Partners and Increased Concentration

The United States consolidated its position as the EU's dominant firearms trade partner

The United States was already the EU's largest single-country trade partner for CN 9303 products in 2015, and the relationship deepened further by 2025. US-bound exports grew from €215 million to €314 million (+45.8%), representing 61.7% of total EU CN 9303 exports by value in 2025. Meanwhile, US-origin imports into the EU nearly doubled from €17.2 million to €34.4 million (+99.7%). This mutual intensification underscores the tight integration of the transatlantic firearms market, driven by the enormous US civilian firearms market and strong European brand recognition (Top partners).

Source: Top partners

The collapse of EU–Russia firearms trade was the period's most dramatic geopolitical shift

EU exports to the Russian Federation plunged from €15.2 million in 2015 to just €2.7 million in 2025 (–82.5%), with virtually all the decline occurring after 2021. Similarly, imports from Russia collapsed from €2.9 million to a negligible €2,927 (–99.9%). This near-total severance mirrors the broader pattern of EU–Russia trade disruption following the imposition of successive rounds of sanctions beginning in 2014 and intensifying sharply after February 2022. The firearms sector was particularly affected given the sensitive nature of the goods and the likely application of arms-embargo provisions.

The United Kingdom's post-Brexit trade shifted markedly

The UK presents an interesting case: EU exports to the UK fell from €42.3 million to €28.5 million (–32.7%), while EU imports from the UK surged from €1.7 million to €6.0 million (+251.5%). This reversal likely reflects both the introduction of customs formalities after Brexit (which may have redirected some supply chains) and the UK's own growing firearms manufacturing base seeking EU market access. The UK became the third-largest import partner by 2025.

Türkiye and Brazil emerged as growing import sources

EU imports from Türkiye grew from €13.5 million to €22.4 million (+65.9%), consolidating Türkiye's position as the second-largest import partner. Brazil saw the most dramatic proportional growth, with imports rising from €1.1 million to €2.4 million (+129.5%). These trends may reflect cost-competitive manufacturing in both countries and growing bilateral trade relationships.

Export and import concentration both increased, heightening dependency risks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports rose from 3,305 to 3,945 (+19.4%), while imports became somewhat more concentrated as well (from 2,297 to 2,610, +13.6%). For exports, the rising HHI is almost entirely explained by the growing dominance of the US market. On the import side, the growing weight of the US and Türkiye offset the disappearance of Russia as a source. Export concentration volatility was particularly pronounced for some smaller partners: Switzerland (CV 0.52), Thailand (CV 0.57), and Ukraine (CV 0.50) showed the highest coefficient-of-variation values among export destinations, reflecting the instability of trade flows with non-traditional markets (Volatility).

Two notable price shocks were detected in EU export flows

The data reveals a significant price shock in EU firearms exports to the United States in 2022, with an abnormality score of 6.0 and a unit-price shift of +15.7%—affecting flows representing 83.1% of export value. A second, smaller shock was detected in exports to the United Kingdom in 2023 (abnormality 3.8, shift +31.5%). The 2022 US shock likely reflects a combination of supply-chain tightening, post-pandemic demand surges, and possibly exchange-rate effects as the euro weakened against the dollar that year (Supply shocks).

Within the EU, Italy remained the undisputed production and export hub

Italy alone accounted for nearly half of all EU CN 9303 exports by value, rising from €213 million (2015) to €244 million (2025). With a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.60, Italy maintained strong specialisation in the sector, alongside Finland (RSCA 0.78) and Portugal (RSCA 0.62). Spain more than doubled its exports from €23 million to €51 million (+118.4%), emerging as a significant secondary exporter. On the import side, Poland saw the most dramatic growth, with imports rising from €1.7 million to €13.5 million (+686.8%), potentially reflecting expanding domestic demand and Poland's growing role as an EU manufacturing base (Reporters, Specialisation).

Conclusion

The EU's firearms sector (CN 9303) demonstrated resilience and growth over 2015–2025, with the trade surplus widening to €423 million by 2025. However, the headline expansion masks a period of significant structural transformation. Export growth was powered more by rising unit values than by volume increases, and domestic production volumes actually declined while values rose—evidence of a sector moving upmarket toward premium, high-margin products. Within the product mix, rifled-bore shotguns (930330) overtook traditional smooth-bore models as the leading export category, reflecting evolving consumer preferences in key markets.

Geopolitical events left a deep imprint on trade flows. The near-total collapse of EU–Russia firearms trade after 2021 was the most dramatic disruption, while Brexit reshaped EU–UK flows. The United States consolidated its position as the overwhelmingly dominant partner, accounting for over 60% of exports—a concentration that carries both commercial benefits and strategic risks. The EU's import sources also shifted, with Türkiye and Brazil gaining ground and the UK becoming a more significant supplier.

Looking ahead, the sector faces a dual challenge: sustaining its premium-positioning advantage while managing the risks of excessive dependence on a single export market and navigating an increasingly complex regulatory and geopolitical landscape. The rising export and import concentration indices suggest that any disruption to transatlantic trade—whether from regulatory divergence, tariffs, or market shifts—would have outsized consequences for the EU firearms industry.