Market evolution: Non-lethal arms (CN 9304) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in goods classified under customs code 9304 — encompassing spring, air or gas guns and pistols, truncheons, and other non-firearms (excluding swords, cutlasses, bayonets, and similar arms of heading 9307) — over the period 2015 to 2025. The Scope & Definitions section confirms that this is a residual heading (not a bundling code), directly mapped to Prodcom code 25.40.12.90 ("Other arms: spring, air or gas guns and pistols, truncheons, excluding for military purposes").

Over the decade, the EU market for CN 9304 products has been transformed by three major dynamics: an extraordinary surge in import volumes and values, a sharp shift in the geographic composition of suppliers (with Türkiye and India emerging as dominant players), and a growing structural dependence on non-EU sources that has fundamentally altered the EU's trade balance. At the same time, EU production has expanded significantly, and intra-EU specialisation has concentrated heavily around Czechia, which has become by far the bloc's leading exporter.

1. A decade of explosive growth — with imports outpacing exports by a wide margin

EU imports grew more than tenfold in value while exports nearly quadrupled

The period 2015–2025 saw remarkable growth in both directions of trade, but the scale of import growth vastly exceeded that of exports. As shown in the General Overview:

In 2015, the EU was roughly in balance on CN 9304 trade, with imports exceeding exports by less than €3 million. By 2025, the deficit had ballooned to over €611 million — a transformation driven almost entirely by the import surge.

Volumes tell a similar story, but unit values also diverged

Quantity data reveals that the growth was not purely a price phenomenon. EU import volumes rose from 4,062 tonnes to 20,399 tonnes (+402%), while export volumes grew from 2,006 tonnes to 7,554 tonnes (+277%). More strikingly, average import unit values rose from €19,716/tonne to €44,303/tonne (+124.7%), whereas export unit values remained essentially flat at around €38,500–38,700/tonne (+0.6%). This divergence suggests a compositional shift in imports toward higher-value products, or alternatively that EU importers are paying significantly more per unit than in 2015.

The EU's net import reliance reversed sign over the decade

The net import reliance indicator moved from -12.5% in 2015 (meaning the EU was a net exporter of CN 9304 products relative to domestic absorption) to +7.4% in 2025 (a net importer). It peaked at +10.6% in 2024. This reversal encapsulates the fundamental structural change in the market.

2. The supplier landscape was reshaped: Türkiye and India disrupted traditional sourcing patterns

Türkiye became the EU's dominant import partner, growing over 8,000%

The most dramatic shift in the partner composition of EU imports was the rise of Türkiye. In 2015, Türkiye supplied just €3.9 million worth of CN 9304 products to the EU. By 2025, that figure had risen to €328.9 million — an increase of 8,391%. Türkiye alone accounted for 36.4% of EU imports by 2025, making it by far the largest single supplier.

India's trajectory was even more dramatic in relative terms, if starting from a smaller base. Indian exports to the EU rose from a mere €40,217 in 2015 to €120.1 million in 2025 (+298,651%). Together, Türkiye and India supplied nearly €449 million, or roughly half of all EU CN 9304 imports.

Bosnia and Herzegovina also emerged from near-zero to become a significant supplier (€40.5 million in 2025), likely reflecting production capacity building in the Western Balkans.

Traditional Asian suppliers lost relative ground

While China and Taiwan remained important suppliers in absolute terms, their share of EU imports shrank dramatically. China grew from €25.8 million to €47.1 million (+82%) and Taiwan from €23.3 million to €26.3 million (+13%) — modest growth compared to the explosive expansion from Türkiye, India, and others. The HHI index for import concentration by value remained relatively stable (from 2,238 to 2,243), but this masks a compositional overhaul beneath the surface.

EU exports diversified geographically, especially toward the Middle East and Africa

On the export side, the United States remained the largest destination (€50.7 million, +85%), followed by the United Kingdom (€18.5 million, +76%). However, the most striking developments were:

• Israel: EU exports surged from €71,337 to €49.2 million (+68,907%), making it the third-largest destination.
• Morocco: From €128,957 to €26.9 million (+20,790%).
• South Africa: From €1.0 million to €4.9 million (+383%).

The export HHI fell from 1,625 to 828 (−49%), indicating that EU export destinations became substantially more diversified over the decade.

3. Czechia's dominance in EU production and exports reshaped intra-EU market structure

EU production more than doubled in quantity and nearly quadrupled in value

EU production data, available in the Market Structure section, shows that output grew from 840,000 items (€152 million) in 2015 to 2.1 million items (€602 million) in 2025 — an increase of 150% in volume and 296% in value. Production peaked at 4 million items (€740 million) in earlier years, indicating some cyclical variation, but the long-term trend is strongly upward. The faster growth of value relative to volume points to rising average production values, consistent with a shift toward more premium products.

Czechia emerged as the EU's overwhelmingly dominant exporter

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals a striking concentration of production capacity:

Czechia accounted for 85.3% of EU CN 9304 production, with a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 17.75 — orders of magnitude above any other Member State. Its export value surged from €3.0 million to €207.2 million (+6,884%), representing over 71% of all EU CN 9304 exports by 2025. This concentration is a defining feature of the market.

Czechia's import surge may reflect re-export and processing dynamics

Czechia's import figures also tell a remarkable story: from €2.8 million in 2015 to €685.6 million in 2025 (+24,662%). Given that Czechia simultaneously dominates EU exports and production, this suggests a hub-and-spoke model whereby Czechia imports components or finished goods (potentially from Türkiye and India) for processing and re-export, or simply acts as a major logistics and distribution centre for the EU market.

Volatility varied sharply across partners, with several extreme price shocks detected

The volatility analysis reveals significant instability in several trade relationships:

The highest volatility among imports is observed for newer, fast-growing suppliers (India, Türkiye), while established partners like China and Taiwan are notably stable. On the export side, emerging destinations (Morocco, Uganda, Viet Nam) show extreme variability, whereas traditional markets (UK, US) are more predictable.

Three supply shocks were flagged:

1. Türkiye (imports, 2023): A price shock with 116.5% shift, abnormality score of 9.5, accounting for 30.1% of import value — likely related to the acceleration of Turkish production and possible currency effects.
2. Viet Nam (exports, 2017): An extreme price shock with a 787.5% shift and abnormality of 17.2 — possibly a one-off large contract or data anomaly.
3. Indonesia (exports, 2021): A 119.3% price shift with abnormality of 5.5.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 9304 products underwent a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. What was once a roughly balanced trade segment became one defined by a massive and growing import deficit (€611 million by 2025). This deficit was driven not by the traditional Asian supply chain (China, Taiwan) but by the explosive rise of Türkiye and India, which together now supply nearly half of all EU imports. Bosnia and Herzegovina's emergence as a significant supplier points to capacity building in Europe's near neighbourhood.

Within the EU, Czechia's dominance — accounting for 85% of production and over 70% of exports — is the defining feature of the market structure. Czechia's simultaneous role as the EU's largest importer and largest exporter suggests a hub function, potentially combining low-cost imports with domestic assembly, finishing, or brand-based re-export.

The EU's trade intensity for CN 9304 products nearly doubled from 33% to 67%, and export propensity rose from 24% to 49%, indicating that the market has become far more globally integrated. This deeper integration, however, comes with elevated volatility — particularly from newer supplier relationships — and growing net import reliance, posing questions about supply chain resilience for a product category that straddles the civilian and security domains.