Market evolution: Ammunition and projectiles (CN 9306) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in ammunition and projectiles (Customs Code 9306) over the period 2015–2025. The sector, encompassing everything from shotgun cartridges to missiles and parts, has undergone a dramatic transformation characterized by explosive export growth, a significant shift in the EU's net trade position, and a marked increase in market concentration. The primary catalyst for these changes was the escalation of geopolitical tensions, most notably the conflict in Ukraine, which reshaped supply chains, demand patterns, and the EU's strategic industrial posture. For an overview of the data scope and definitions, see the product overview.

1. An Unprecedented Export Surge Driven by Geopolitical Conflict

The period under review witnessed a colossal expansion in the EU's external trade in CN 9306 goods, with exports leading the charge. This growth was not uniform but was dominated by a single, conflict-driven partner, fundamentally altering the landscape of EU ammunition trade.

1.1 Explosive Growth in Export Values and a Pivot to High-Value Segments

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports in this category surged by 462%, rising from €491 million to nearly €2.76 billion. This growth significantly outpaced the increase in exported weight (+46%), indicating a decisive shift towards higher-value products. The average export price per tonne increased by 287%, from €8,506 to €32,928. This dynamic is particularly pronounced in the subcategory for bombs, grenades, missiles, and other projectiles (CN 930690), where the price per tonne escalated from €34,196 in 2015 to €54,207 in 2025, reflecting the delivery of more sophisticated and costly systems.

Source: EU Trade Overview

1.2 Ukraine as the Overwhelming Driver of Export Destinations

The primary catalyst for this export boom was the conflict in Ukraine. EU exports to Ukraine grew from a negligible €1.8 million in 2015 to a staggering €2.00 billion in 2025, an increase of over 112,000%. By 2025, Ukraine alone accounted for 72% of all EU exports in this category. This unparalleled shift is also reflected in market concentration: the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value skyrocketed from 1,118 in 2015 to 5,340 in 2025, indicating a market now heavily reliant on a single partner. Other significant partners like the United States, United Kingdom, and Türkiye showed much more modest growth.

Source: Top Partners

1.3 Eastern Member States Emerged as the EU's Production and Export Hubs

The export surge was not evenly distributed across the EU. Eastern Member States, particularly those geographically and strategically close to the conflict zone, dramatically scaled up their operations. Poland saw the most explosive growth in exports, with values increasing by 1,828% from €58 million to €1.12 billion. Slovakia's exports grew by an even more remarkable 2,972%. This concentration is also evident in specialization: in 2025, Slovakia possessed the highest revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) for this product within the EU (0.94), followed by Spain and Romania. Conversely, traditional economic powerhouses like France saw their export share decline (-53%), indicating a strategic and geographical reorientation of the EU's ammunition production base.

Source: Top Reporters

2. A Strategic Reversal: The EU's Shifting Trade Balance and Self-Sufficiency

Concurrent with the export boom, the EU's import profile also changed significantly. The combination of surging exports and a different pattern of imports led to a remarkable reversal in the EU's net trade position, suggesting a shift towards greater self-reliance in this critical sector.

2.1 Imports Also Rose Steeply, Led by Different Partners and Products

EU imports in CN 9306 grew by 816% in value terms, from €262 million to €2.40 billion. This growth was more volume-driven than for exports, with quantity rising by 109%. The key import partners differ from export destinations. Türkiye became the largest supplier by 2025 (€242 million), followed by the United States (€535 million) and Brazil (€51 million). At the EU member state level, Poland again showed the highest growth in import value (+2,030%), while Estonia (+1,208%) and Slovakia (+2,392%) also expanded imports massively, likely supporting their increased production and export capacity.

2.2 The EU Reverted to a Solid Net Exporter Position

The critical finding from the trade balance is the dramatic improvement in the EU's net position. While the EU was already a net exporter in 2015 (balance: +€229 million), the massive export growth transformed it into a substantial net exporter by 2025, with a surplus of +€353 million. More telling is the metric for Net Import Reliance. This percentage turned decisively negative, moving from -3.2% in 2015 to -16.8% in 2025. A negative value indicates the EU is a net exporter in relation to its own consumption. The deepening negative value demonstrates that the EU has not only met increased internal demand but has also expanded its role as a global supplier, directly linking this capability to its strategic response to geopolitical events.

2.3 Production Volumes Declined, Suggesting a Focus on High-Value Output

Despite the trade boom, EU production data shows a decline. Reported production quantity in kilogrammes fell by 79% from 2015 to 2025, and production value fell by 45%. This apparent contradiction may be explained by several factors: the data may capture incomplete production reporting, a shift from mass production of lower-value items (like small-calibre cartridges) to more specialized, lower-volume production of high-value items (missiles, large-calibre munitions), or the fact that the trade data covers goods in motion while production may not fully capture mobilized industrial capacity.

3. Market Consolidation and Heightened Price Volatility

The geopolitical shock not only altered volumes and balances but also reshaped the market's structural characteristics. Concentration increased, specialization patterns became more pronounced, and price volatility highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities.

3.1 Export Markets Became Highly Concentrated While Import Sources Diversified Slightly

The Concentration HHI for export value increased by 378%, from 1,118 to 5,340, indicating a shift from a moderately competitive market to a highly concentrated one, dominated by Ukraine. In contrast, import concentration increased only modestly (+8%). The volatility analysis reveals that trade with certain partners is highly erratic. Exports to Ukraine showed a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.35, and imports from Serbia had a CV of 1.09, indicating significant year-on-year fluctuations likely tied to discrete procurement cycles and conflict-related surges.

3.2 Price Shocks Underscore Supply Chain Sensitivities

The data identifies significant price shocks in specific trade flows. A notable example was a 127% price spike for imports from the United States in 2023, which was abnormal and coincided with the US accounting for 56% of import value that year. Such events highlight the EU's pricing vulnerability when sourcing from dominant suppliers. Another shock was observed in exports to Tunisia in 2017. These events underscore the link between geopolitical demand, supply constraints, and pricing power in the ammunition sector.

3.3 Product Mix Reveals a Strategic Emphasis on Advanced Projectiles

A breakdown by sub-product shows that the growth in both imports and exports was overwhelmingly driven by the segment for bombs, grenades, missiles, and other projectiles (CN 930690). This subcategory's export value grew from €140 million to €1.81 billion. Its share of total EU exports in CN 9306 surged from 29% to 66% in value terms. Conversely, the share of shotgun cartridges (CN 930621) in exports fell from 24% to 6%. This shift is consistent with a strategic mobilization of industrial capacity towards supplying conventional military materiel for a state-level conflict, moving beyond the needs of the civilian and hunting markets.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in ammunition and projectiles (CN 9306) from 2015 to 2025 has been fundamentally reshaped by geopolitical conflict. The data tells a story of a strategic pivot: the EU's industrial and trade apparatus was rapidly redirected to support Ukraine, leading to a 462% surge in exports and transforming the bloc into a more substantial net exporter with a strengthened net position. This shift was geographically concentrated in Eastern Member States like Poland and Slovakia, which became primary production and logistics hubs.

The market has become more specialized and concentrated, with a decisive move towards high-value projectile systems (CN 930690). While import needs also grew, the EU's enhanced export capacity underscores a development towards greater strategic autonomy in this critical defense sector. The period demonstrates how external security threats can profoundly and rapidly reconfigure a region's industrial priorities, trade flows, and market structures. The key challenge moving forward will be managing the heightened concentration and price volatility observed, while sustaining the industrial capacity mobilized during this period of acute geopolitical need.