Market evolution: Automatic wristwatches (CN 910221) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in automatic wristwatches (Combined Nomenclature code 910221) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers wrist-watches with automatic winding that are not made of precious metal or metal clad with precious metal. The analysis draws exclusively on data from the EU Trade Dashboard and covers trade flows between the EU and non-EU countries, EU production volumes, and structural indicators such as concentration, specialisation, and vulnerability. Three principal dynamics emerge from the data: a marked premiumisation of the category, a deepening structural dependence on Swiss supply, and a collapse in EU production volumes that is partially offset by a shift toward higher-value output.

1. Premiumisation: Shrinking Volumes, Rising Values

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is a clear pattern of premiumisation across both imports and exports. Physical quantities have fallen substantially while trade values have held up or even grown, indicating that the EU market for automatic wristwatches has shifted decisively toward higher-priced products.

Import values surged despite stable mass volumes

EU imports of automatic wristwatches grew from €2.04 billion in 2015 to €3.15 billion in 2025, an increase of 54.4%. Over the same period, import mass quantities declined modestly from 457.9 tonnes to 438.1 tonnes (−4.3%). The implied average import price per tonne rose from €4.45 million to €7.17 million per tonne (+61.2%). When measured by unit count (supplementary quantity), the number of imported items fell from 3.42 million to 2.56 million pieces (−25.2%), while the unit price more than doubled from €595 to €1,228 per piece (+106.3%).

Exports declined in volume but prices rose sharply

EU exports tell a similar story of volume contraction combined with unit-price appreciation. Total export value fell from €732 million to €606 million (−17.2%), but this decline was almost entirely driven by a collapse in physical volumes: export mass dropped from 160.0 to 96.1 tonnes (−40.0%), and the number of exported items fell from 644,549 to 445,435 pieces (−30.9%). Meanwhile, the export price per tonne climbed from €4.48 million to €6.09 million (+35.8%), and the unit price per piece rose from €1,136 to €1,360 (+19.7%).

EU production volumes collapsed while value grew

Perhaps the most dramatic illustration of premiumisation comes from EU production data. The number of automatic wristwatches produced within the EU plummeted from 2.05 million units in 2015 to just 450,000 units in 2025, a decline of 78.0%. Yet the reported production value increased from €125 million to €180 million (+44.0%), implying a near-fourfold increase in the average value per unit produced. This strongly suggests that EU manufacturers have exited the mass-market segment and concentrated on fewer, more expensive timepieces.

2. Swiss Dominance and the Widening Trade Deficit

The EU's trade deficit in automatic wristwatches widened dramatically over the period, driven almost entirely by a surge in imports from Switzerland. The structural dependence on Swiss supply has deepened, while several smaller Asian suppliers have emerged as secondary but volatile sources.

The trade deficit nearly doubled

The EU's trade balance in this product category deteriorated from −€1.31 billion in 2015 to −€2.54 billion in 2025, an increase of 94.6% in absolute terms. Net import reliance remained extremely high throughout, edging up from 93.2% to 95.3%, meaning that virtually all consumption of automatic wristwatches in the EU is satisfied by imports (Net import reliance).

Switzerland accounts for the vast majority of imports

Switzerland was by far the dominant import partner throughout the entire period. In 2015, Swiss imports stood at €1.97 billion, representing 96.7% of total EU imports. By 2025, they had grown to €2.96 billion (+50.0%), though their share decreased slightly to 93.9% as other suppliers grew faster from a much smaller base. The concentration index (HHI) for imports remained very high (9,360 in 2015, 8,886 in 2025, −5.1%), reflecting this near-monopolistic supply structure.

Emerging Asian suppliers grew rapidly but remain small

Several Asian partners registered spectacular growth rates from very low starting points, yet their absolute contributions to EU imports remained modest in 2025:

Sources: Top import partners

Thailand, in particular, went from virtually zero to nearly €15 million in imports, with a coefficient of variation of 1.21 — the highest among the top import partners — indicating highly volatile and likely concentrated trade flows (Volatility bars). The United Kingdom, previously the second-largest source of imports at €21.0 million, saw its share decline to €7.7 million (−63.3%), likely reflecting Brexit-related trade reorientation.

France and Germany drove import growth within the EU

At the EU member-state level, France was the largest importer throughout, growing from €717 million to €1.11 billion (+54.2%). Germany followed at €727 million in 2025 (+53.4%). Several smaller markets saw exceptionally rapid import growth, notably Belgium (+381.4%), the Netherlands (+276.6%), and Spain (+150.4%), suggesting distribution and logistics hubs may have gained prominence. Italy, the third-largest importer, actually saw a modest decline (−6.3%) and Austria also contracted (−36.8%) (Top EU reporter countries).

3. Diverging Export Dynamics Across Member States and Partners

While the overall export picture is one of decline, the aggregate figures mask sharp divergences among EU member states and destination markets. Several countries experienced dramatic shifts in their export roles, and the EU's export partner landscape was reshaped between 2015 and 2025.

Italy's export collapse was the single largest drag

Italy, which was the EU's largest exporter of automatic wristwatches in 2015 at €282 million, saw its exports crash to just €70 million by 2025, a decline of 75.1%. This was the largest absolute decline among all member states and the primary driver of the overall export contraction. Italy's high specialisation score (RSCA of 0.1246 for Slovenia, and notably France at 0.754 as the most specialised) suggests that EU watch production is geographically concentrated, and Italy's decline has had outsized effects on the aggregate (Specialisation data).

Ireland emerged as an unlikely export powerhouse

In stark contrast, Ireland's exports surged from just €362,000 in 2015 to €46.5 million in 2025, an extraordinary increase of 12,735.6%. Ireland's exports peaked at €59.3 million in an intermediate year before settling at a still-impressive level. This transformation likely reflects the establishment of distribution or assembly operations within Ireland, possibly by multinational watch brands leveraging the country's favourable corporate and logistics environment.

Other notable shifts among EU exporters

Source: Top EU reporter countries — exports

Germany's exports proved the most resilient among the major exporters, declining only 7.5% and maintaining the second position. Spain more than doubled its exports, joining Ireland as one of the few EU countries to expand their external watch trade.

Destination markets were reshaped by geopolitical and structural factors

On the partner side of exports, the most dramatic declines were recorded for Japan (−74.6%) and the United Kingdom (−70.5%), the latter likely affected by Brexit-related trade barriers. Exports to Hong Kong, traditionally a major re-export hub for luxury goods destined for mainland China, fell by 44.5%. Conversely, exports to the United Arab Emirates grew by 116.4%, reflecting the Gulf region's increasing importance as a luxury consumption hub. Exports to Switzerland grew by 75.0%, consistent with the role of Switzerland as a processing and re-export centre for the global watch industry.

Two notable price shock events were detected in the data: a 67.1% price shift in exports to Norway in 2018 and a 111.5% price shift in exports to the United Arab Emirates in 2019. While these affected relatively small value shares, they indicate periods of abrupt repricing in specific markets, potentially linked to product mix changes or one-off large transactions.

Conclusion

The EU market for automatic wristwatches between 2015 and 2025 was characterised by three intertwined dynamics. First, a pronounced premiumisation trend led to sharp declines in physical volumes across imports, exports, and domestic production, while values generally held or increased — indicating a market migrating toward higher-end segments. Second, the EU's structural dependence on Switzerland deepened, with Swiss imports growing to €2.96 billion and the trade deficit widening to €2.54 billion. Net import reliance remained above 93% throughout the period, underscoring the EU's limited self-sufficiency in this category. Third, the EU's export landscape underwent a significant reconfiguration, with Italy's collapse and Ireland's rise representing the most dramatic shifts. The concentration of both imports and exports decreased slightly over the period, but the overall market remained overwhelmingly shaped by Swiss supply dominance.

Looking ahead, the data suggests that the EU will continue to rely heavily on Swiss imports for the foreseeable future, while its own production base is likely to remain focused on a smaller number of higher-value units. The rapid growth of Asian secondary suppliers (Japan, Thailand, Hong Kong) introduces new diversification possibilities but also new sources of volatility, as evidenced by the high coefficients of variation observed in these trade flows.