Market evolution: Alloy steel bars and rods (CN 7228) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade evolution of Combined Nomenclature code 7228 — covering other bars and rods of alloy steel other than stainless, angles, shapes and sections, and hollow drill bars and rods — within the European Union's external trade from 2015 to 2025. The analysis draws on EU-level import and export data at annual frequency, with incomplete periods already excluded. Over the decade, the EU's trade in these products underwent a structural transformation: the bloc shifted from a position of strong net exporter to one of near trade balance, driven by rising imports (notably from China and Türkiye) and stagnating export volumes. Three major dynamics stand out: a fundamental erosion of the EU's export surplus, a dramatic reconfiguration of import sourcing following the 2022 geopolitical and energy crises, and a persistent rise in unit values that reshaped the price competitiveness landscape.

For a full overview of the product definition and data coverage, see the Scope & Definitions section.

1. The Collapse of the EU's Trade Surplus

The EU transitioned from a dominant net exporter to near trade balance

The most striking structural change over 2015–2025 is the near-elimination of the EU's trade surplus in CN 7228 products. In 2015, the EU enjoyed a trade balance of approximately €259 million; by 2025, this had shrunk to just €64 million — a decline of 75.1%. The net import reliance indicator confirms this trajectory: it moved from −321.5% in 2015 to −6.3% in 2025, meaning the EU went from exporting more than three times its import value to a position barely above zero.

Import growth outpaced exports on both value and volume

Over the full period, the EU's imports grew by 28.5% in value (from €918 million to €1,179 million) and by 20.3% in volume (from 996,000 t to 1,198,000 t). By contrast, export value rose by only 5.7% (from €1,176 million to €1,243 million), while export volume fell by 11.7% (from 655,000 t to 578,000 t). The divergence between value and volume on the export side — value up, volume down — reflects the rising unit values that characterised the period (see Section 3).

(Source: General Overview)

Export propensity and trade intensity both declined sharply

The EU's export propensity fell from 111.4% in 2015 to 18.1% in 2025 (−83.7%), while trade intensity dropped from 108.5% to 27.0% (−75.1%). These large declines indicate that the EU's CN 7228 sector became significantly less oriented toward external markets over the decade — a pattern consistent with expanding intra-EU production and consumption capturing a larger share of the total market, or with declining global competitiveness.

2. A Dramatic Reconfiguration of Import Sourcing

China became the EU's dominant supplier, while Russia was eliminated

The most consequential shift in import sourcing was the rise of China and the disappearance of Russia. Chinese imports surged from €311 million in 2015 to €565 million in 2025 (+81.8%), making China by far the largest single supplier. Over the same period, imports from the Russian Federation collapsed from €185 million to a negligible €42 thousand (−100.0%), as EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 took full effect. The data shows Russian imports peaking at €300 million around 2021 before falling to near zero.

(Source: Top partners)

Import concentration increased significantly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,835 in 2015 to 2,677 in 2025 (+45.9%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market. This increase reflects the dual effect of China's growing dominance and Russia's removal — two large suppliers moving in opposite directions — which reduced the diversity of the EU's import base. By contrast, the export HHI remained low and relatively stable (from 930 to 981, +5.5%), indicating that EU exports continued to be spread across multiple destination markets.

Türkiye emerged as a major alternative supplier

With the loss of Russian supply, Türkiye filled part of the gap, with imports growing by 171.6% from €46 million to €125 million over the period. This growth was particularly notable after 2022, as EU buyers sought alternatives to Russian material. Meanwhile, UK imports halved from €105 million to €49 million, a decline likely linked to post-Brexit trade frictions and changes in reporting relationships.

Internal EU trade patterns also shifted

Among EU Member States, the internal redistribution of import flows was notable. Germany — traditionally the largest EU importer of CN 7228 from outside the bloc — saw its extra-EU imports fall by 52.6% (from €290 million to €138 million). Conversely, Belgium (+46.7%), Italy (+77.6%), and especially the Netherlands (+232.1%) expanded their extra-EU imports significantly. This suggests a redistribution of gate-entry points, possibly linked to port logistics, warehouse capacity, or the growing role of the Netherlands as a steel distribution hub.

(Source: Top reporters)

3. Price Dynamics and the 2022 Energy-Price Shock

Unit values rose across both imports and exports, but from very different baselines

A persistent feature of the 2015–2025 period is the wide and growing price gap between EU exports and imports. In 2015, the average export price was €1,796/t versus an import price of €922/t — a ratio of roughly 1.95:1. By 2025, the gap had widened further: export prices stood at €2,150/t (+19.8%) while import prices reached €984/t (+6.8%), yielding a ratio of approximately 2.18:1. This pattern is consistent with the EU exporting higher-value, more processed alloy steel products (such as cold-finished bars and high-speed steel) while importing larger volumes of standard hot-rolled and forged products at lower unit costs.

The 2022 price spike was the most dramatic episode in the decade

The year 2022 stands out as an exceptional shock event. Import unit values surged to record levels across most product sub-categories. For example:

(Source: Product segment breakdown)

The 2022 spike coincided with the global energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which sharply raised steelmaking costs (energy, raw materials, logistics). The shock detection analysis confirms this, identifying significant price shocks in 2022 for exports to the United Kingdom (abnormality score: 74.8, shift: +38.4%), Brazil (+44.3%), and Canada (+47.8%).

Import price trajectories diverged sharply by sub-category after 2022

While most import prices receded from their 2022 peaks by 2025, one notable exception is sub-category 722850 (cold-formed or cold-finished bars), where import prices continued to rise — from €2,124/t in 2022 to €3,100/t in 2025. This sub-category has also seen a sharp decline in import volumes (from 271,000 t in 2015 to just 63,000 t in 2025), suggesting that the remaining imports are increasingly specialised, higher-value products where price elasticity is limited. By contrast, the dominant sub-category 722830 (hot-rolled bars) saw its 2022 price spike largely unwind by 2025, returning to €694/t — below its 2015 level of €767/t.

Trade volatility was highest for smaller and geopolitically sensitive partners

The coefficient of variation analysis reveals that import flows were most volatile for Egypt (CV: 2.56), Moldova (1.68), and India (1.00) — partners with smaller or more erratic trade volumes. Among major partners, the United Kingdom showed the highest import volatility (CV: 0.57), followed by Russia (0.46) and Ukraine (0.55), the latter two reflecting the direct impact of sanctions and conflict. Export volatility was generally lower, with the United Kingdom's export flows being the most stable (CV: 0.13), reflecting the deeply integrated nature of EU-UK steel trade.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 7228 alloy steel products underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc's once-substantial trade surplus eroded by 75%, as import volumes grew by 20% while export volumes contracted by 12%. The import landscape was reshaped by two countervailing forces: China's continued expansion as the dominant supplier (+82% in value) and the complete elimination of Russian supply following the 2022 sanctions — a shift that also elevated Türkiye's role as an alternative source. The 2022 energy-price shock left a lasting imprint on pricing, with some sub-categories (notably cold-finished bars) continuing to command elevated prices in 2025, while others reverted to pre-crisis levels. Rising import concentration (HHI up 46%) signals a growing dependence on fewer supplier countries, a vulnerability that merits continued monitoring. The EU's specialisation pattern, with Slovenia, Sweden, Finland, Austria, and Italy showing the strongest revealed comparative advantages in this product category, suggests that the bloc retains niche strengths in higher-value alloy steel products — but the overall trajectory points toward a market under increasing competitive pressure from lower-cost imports.