Market evolution: Stainless steel stainless raw (CN 7218) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in CN 7218 — stainless steel in ingots or other primary forms, and semi-finished products of stainless steel — over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers three sub-headings: stainless steel ingots and primary forms (721810), rectangular semi-finished products such as slabs (721891), and other semi-finished products (721899).

The decade under review has been marked by a dramatic divergence between EU imports and exports. Import volumes have more than tripled, while export volumes have contracted by over a third. The result is a widening trade deficit that reached nearly €730 million by 2025. At the same time, the geographical composition of trade has undergone a structural realignment, with Indonesia emerging from near-zero participation to become the EU's second-largest import supplier, while long-standing partners such as Russia have seen their role diminish sharply. The following sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

For the full dashboard and underlying data, see the General Overview.

1. A tripling of imports transforms the EU's stainless raw trade balance

1.1 Import volumes surged far beyond pre-2021 levels

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the extraordinary growth in EU imports of CN 7218 products. Over the full window, import volumes rose from 154,109 tonnes to 520,687 tonnes — an increase of 237.9%. The bulk of this expansion occurred from 2021 onwards: volumes jumped from roughly 315,000 tonnes in 2021 to over 520,000 tonnes by 2025, well above any previous level.

(Source: General Overview — trade)

Despite this volume surge, import values grew by "only" 199.8% (from €319.8 million to €958.8 million), because unit prices actually declined by 11.3% over the period, falling from €2,075/t in 2015 to €1,841/t in 2025. This price decline — especially pronounced after the 2022 spike to €3,456/t — reflects a combination of cyclical nickel and stainless steel price corrections and the increasing share of lower-priced imports from new suppliers.

1.2 The surge was almost entirely concentrated in rectangular semi-finished products (slabs)

The sub-product breakdown reveals that the import boom is overwhelmingly driven by a single segment. Imports of 721891 (rectangular semi-finished products, i.e. slabs) grew from 106,095 tonnes in 2015 to 450,677 tonnes in 2025 — more than quadrupling and accounting for 86.6% of all CN 7218 import volume by 2025.

(Source: Product Segment Breakdown)

By contrast, imports of ingots and primary forms (721810) stagnated, while other semi-finished products (721899) roughly doubled in volume. The dominance of slab imports points to a growing reliance on foreign-cast semi-finished stainless steel feedstock for downstream EU processing.

1.3 Export volumes fell while prices rose, leaving total export value nearly flat

EU exports of CN 7218 tell the opposite story. Volume declined from 74,349 tonnes in 2015 to 47,638 tonnes in 2025 (−35.9%), yet unit export prices rose by 62.3%, from €2,966/t to €4,813/t. As a result, export value remained roughly stable at around €220–230 million, a modest +4.0% change.

This suggests the EU has been exporting fewer tonnes but at higher-value segments — the EU's export mix is weighted towards higher-priced 721899 (other semi-finished) and 721891 products, while it imports lower-priced slabs in bulk.

The combined effect is a sharp deterioration in the trade balance: from a deficit of €99 million in 2015 to €729 million in 2025 — a sixfold widening.

2. A structural realignment of EU stainless steel supply chains

2.1 Indonesia's emergence as a dominant import supplier is the decade's defining shift

The most dramatic change in the geographical composition of EU imports has been the rise of Indonesia. In 2015, Indonesian exports to the EU of CN 7218 were negligible at just €12,030. By 2025, they had reached €499.6 million — making Indonesia the EU's second-largest import partner by value, behind only the United Kingdom (€420.1 million).

(Source: General Overview — top partners)

This explosive growth reflects the rapid scale-up of Indonesia's stainless steel industry, driven by massive Chinese-invested nickel-processing and stainless steelmaking capacity in the country. The EU's import price from Indonesia in 2025 was notably lower than the EU average, consistent with the competitive cost base of Indonesian producers. A sharp price shock was detected in 2023 for Indonesian imports, with a +511% price shift and an abnormality score of 15.3 — likely reflecting a surge in volumes at depressed prices (Volatility — supply shocks).

2.2 Russia's role has collapsed, while South Korean and Indian flows are volatile

The Russian Federation, once a notable supplier (€21.8 million in 2015), saw its exports to the EU drop to just €3.9 million in 2025 (−82.2%). This decline accelerated after 2022 and is consistent with EU sanctions regimes affecting Russian steel products following the invasion of Ukraine. Russia's import CV of 0.51 confirms moderate volatility around this downward trend (Volatility — partners).

South Korean imports were highly volatile (CV of 2.01 — the highest among major partners), peaking at €60.7 million in a single year and falling to €6.8 million by 2025. Indian imports grew from €4.6 million to €11.5 million but also exhibited considerable year-to-year swings.

2.3 The United States has weakened as the EU's top export destination

On the export side, the United States remained the EU's single largest extra-EU market but its share eroded significantly, falling from €118.1 million (2015) to €59.5 million (2025), a decline of 49.7%.

(Source: General Overview — top partners)

Conversely, India (+117%), the United Kingdom (+89.8%), and especially Ukraine (+654.0%) have gained importance as export markets. The strong growth in Ukrainian imports from the EU likely reflects post-2022 supply chain reorientation and reconstruction demand. The decline in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports — from 3,145 to 1,594, a fall of 49.3% — confirms that EU export destinations have become significantly more diversified over the decade (Concentration).

2.4 Import concentration has also declined, but through a different mechanism

Import-side HHI fell from 7,343 to 4,639 (−36.8%). In 2015, imports were highly concentrated in the United Kingdom (€272.8 million out of €319.8 million — an 85% share). By 2025, while the UK remained the largest partner at €420.1 million, Indonesia's near-equal weight at €499.6 million created a more balanced two-pillar structure. This diversification, however, has brought new concentration risks: Indonesia's share in a single year has been unprecedented for a supplier that was essentially absent before 2020.

3. Declining export capacity and the changing internal landscape

3.1 EU production grew in value but stagnated in volume, pointing to a shift towards higher-added-value output

EU domestic production (PRODCOM data) for products corresponding to CN 7218 rose from 744,000 tonnes in 2015 to 854,606 tonnes in 2025 (+14.9%). However, production value grew much more steeply, from €762 million to €1,441 million (+89.1%). The divergent trajectories indicate that the EU's remaining production has moved up the value chain, with higher average unit revenues, even as the physical volume of output has not kept pace with the growth in demand (as evidenced by the import surge).

Production peaked at 1,390,508 tonnes in a mid-period year, with a trough at 233,698 tonnes during the COVID-19 disruption of 2020, underscoring the cyclical sensitivity of the sector. See Production volumes.

3.2 Export propensity has collapsed, signalling a structural competitiveness challenge

Perhaps the most telling indicator of the EU's evolving position is the sharp decline in export propensity — the ratio of extra-EU exports to domestic production. This metric fell from 9.5% in 2015 to just 2.6% in 2025, a decline of 72.3%. The salience analysis flags this as the most significant vulnerability metric (score: 119.7), far outstripping trade intensity (score: 37.5).

In parallel, trade intensity (the share of trade in apparent consumption) declined from 39.9% to 32.1%. This combination — falling trade intensity alongside falling export propensity — suggests the EU's stainless steel semi-finished sector is becoming more oriented towards serving intra-EU downstream demand and less competitive on global markets.

3.3 The EU's internal production landscape is geographically concentrated and highly specialised

The specialisation analysis reveals that within the EU, stainless steel raw production is heavily concentrated in a small number of member states. In 2025, the most specialised producers were:

(Source: Specialisation)

Sweden and Italy dominate both in absolute terms, together accounting for nearly a third of EU production value. Sweden is also the EU's largest exporter of CN 7218 products outside the bloc (€142.4 million in 2025). Within the import picture, Italy's role has grown enormously — its imports surged from €5.6 million in 2015 to €462.6 million in 2025 — likely reflecting the Italian downstream stainless steel industry's appetite for competitively priced slab feedstock (Reporters).

At the other end of the spectrum, member states such as Latvia, Luxembourg, Ireland, Romania, and Bulgaria have essentially no export specialisation in this product category (RSCA values near −1.0).

3.4 Net import reliance has remained stable at around 29%, masking a fundamental volume shift

Despite the tripling of import volumes, the net import reliance ratio — imports minus exports as a share of apparent consumption — remained essentially flat at approximately 29% (29.1% in 2015, 28.9% in 2025). This apparent stability, however, conceals that the denominator (apparent consumption) has grown substantially alongside imports. The metric briefly turned negative (−1.0%) in one year, suggesting a temporary period of near self-sufficiency or net exporter status, before reverting to its long-run average.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 7218 stainless steel raw products has undergone a structural transformation over 2015–2025. The headline development is a more-than-tripling of import volumes — driven almost entirely by rectangular semi-finished slabs (721891) — against a backdrop of declining export volumes. Indonesia's meteoric rise from a negligible supplier to a near-€500 million import partner is the most consequential geographical shift, reflecting the globalisation of stainless steel production chains through Indonesian-based capacity. Meanwhile, Russia's role has diminished sharply, and the EU's export markets have diversified, with India, the UK, and Ukraine gaining importance as the US has weakened.

Within the EU, production has shifted towards higher-value output but export propensity has collapsed, suggesting a growing inward orientation of the sector. The concentration of production in a handful of member states — Sweden, Italy, Finland, Austria, and Belgium — underlines the sector's industrial vulnerability, even as import-source diversification has reduced (though not eliminated) supplier concentration risk. The widening trade deficit and the structural shift towards imported slabs raise important questions about the long-term competitiveness and strategic autonomy of the EU's stainless steel value chain.