Market evolution: Wheat (CN 1001) — 2015–2025

Introduction

CN 1001 covers wheat and meslin, encompassing common wheat, durum wheat, and their seed varieties. It is one of the EU's most heavily traded agricultural commodities, both in terms of the EU's substantial export capacity and its growing import needs. Over the 2015–2025 period, EU wheat trade was shaped by a sequence of disruptive events: the European drought of 2017–2018, the COVID-19 demand shock of 2020–2021, and — most consequentially — Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which triggered a global grain crisis and rerouted Black Sea trade flows through EU territory.

In 2025, the EU exported €5.90bn of wheat (27.3 Mt) and imported €2.03bn (7.7 Mt), yielding a trade surplus of €3.87bn. While the EU remains a major net exporter, this surplus narrowed by 18.4% from its 2015 level of €4.74bn, as export volumes contracted and import volumes expanded. This report examines three main dynamics behind this shift: the diverging evolution of export and import volumes, the geographic reorientation of trade partners and EU member states, and the price shocks and volatility associated with the 2022 grain crisis and its aftermath.

1. A Narrowing Trade Surplus Driven by Diverging Volume Trends

Export volumes declined while imports surged, compressing the EU's wheat trade surplus

Over the decade, EU wheat trade volumes followed clearly diverging paths. Exports fell from 31.8 Mt in 2015 to 27.3 Mt in 2025 (−14.2%), while imports rose from 6.5 Mt to 7.7 Mt (+17.6%). The trade surplus consequently shrank from €4.74bn to €3.87bn (−18.4%).

The year-by-year pattern reveals several distinct phases. Exports hit a trough of 20.6 Mt (€3.83bn) in 2018, reflecting the severe European drought of 2017–2018, before recovering to a volume peak of 35.9 Mt in 2020. The value peak came later, at €11.21bn in 2022, driven by historically elevated prices rather than higher volumes. On the import side, volumes remained relatively subdued at 4.2–7.2 Mt through most of the period, then surged to 7.0 Mt in 2022 and a record 12.1 Mt in 2023 — a development closely linked to the rerouting of Ukrainian grain exports through EU overland corridors.

Common wheat (CN 100199) dominates EU wheat trade, but its import share grew markedly

The product segment breakdown reveals a highly concentrated export structure. Common wheat (CN 100199 — wheat and meslin excluding seed and durum) consistently accounted for over 96% of EU wheat exports by value. In 2025, CN 100199 exports totalled 26.6 Mt (€5.69bn), down from 30.7 Mt (€5.98bn) in 2015.

On the import side, the composition shifted significantly over the decade. In 2015, common wheat (CN 100199) represented only 45% of import value (€756M out of €1.68bn), while durum wheat (CN 100119) accounted for 54% (€906M). By 2025, common wheat's share had risen to 65% (€1.33bn out of €2.03bn), while durum wheat's share fell to 35% (€701M). This structural shift reflects the surge in common wheat inflows from Ukraine and other Black Sea origins from 2022 onwards.

Durum wheat imports remain structurally important despite their declining share

Although durum wheat (CN 100119) lost relative weight, it remains a significant import flow at €701M and 2.2 Mt in 2025. The EU — and Italy in particular — has a large pasta-processing industry that depends on high-quality durum wheat, much of which is sourced from Canada and, to a lesser extent, from Kazakhstan and the United States. The import unit price for durum wheat (€321/t in 2025) consistently exceeds that of common wheat (€242/t), reflecting the premium nature of this product. Durum import prices also proved somewhat less volatile during the 2022 crisis: durum peaked at €494/t (in 2022) compared with €338/t for common wheat, but the durum premium narrowed the following year as global common wheat prices remained elevated.

2. Geographic Reorientation: New Import Sources and the Rise of Eastern European Exporters

Ukraine's emergence as the EU's leading wheat supplier transformed the import base

The most striking geographic shift in EU wheat trade over 2015–2025 was Ukraine's rise to dominance among import partners. Ukraine's annual import value grew from €281M in 2015 to €468M in 2025 (+66.5%), but the peak was far higher: the maximum over the period reached €1,536M, corresponding to the 2022–2023 phase when Ukrainian grain was rerouted through EU overland corridors following the disruption of Black Sea shipping routes.

In parallel, other Black Sea and Central Asian origins gained ground. Moldova (+344%) and Kazakhstan (+214%) both saw substantial growth. Conversely, Russia declined from €115M to €41M (−64.4%), and the United Kingdom fell sharply from €200M to €53M (−73.2%), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade adjustments. Canada, the EU's primary durum supplier, grew from €626M to €854M (+36.3%), confirming the structural demand for North American durum wheat.

North Africa anchors EU wheat exports, but destination shares have shifted markedly

The EU's export geography remains dominated by North African and Middle Eastern importers, though the relative ranking has evolved. Algeria was the largest single destination in 2015 (€1.31bn) but fell to €734M by 2025 (−44.2%), partly as Algeria diversified its sourcing toward Russian wheat. Morocco more than doubled, from €449M to €934M (+108%), overtaking Algeria as the EU's top wheat customer by 2025. Egypt halved from €687M to €350M (−49.0%), reflecting Egypt's growing procurement from the Black Sea region directly.

A notable new dynamic is the growth of Nigeria as an export destination, rising from €93M to €410M (+339%) — a sign of West Africa's growing demand for imported wheat. The United Kingdom remains a stable nearby market at €292M (+65.2%).

Eastern and Baltic member states gained export weight at the expense of France and Germany

Within the EU, the member-state distribution of wheat exports shifted substantially over the decade. France remained the largest exporter but saw its value decline from €2.41bn to €1.28bn (−47.1%), with the peak reaching €4.16bn. Germany fell from €1.53bn to €603M (−60.5%). In contrast, Romania surged from €542M to €1.50bn (+177%) and Bulgaria from €252M to €858M (+240%), reflecting strong harvests and improved logistics in the Black Sea basin. The Baltic states — Lithuania (+64%) and Latvia (+60%) — also expanded their roles as wheat exporters.

On the import side, Italy was consistently the largest importer (€960M in 2015, €1.02bn in 2025), driven by durum-processing demand. Spain nearly doubled from €292M to €553M (+89.2%). A remarkable outlier is Slovenia, which surged from €3.4M to €128M (+3,727%), likely reflecting its role as a transit point for Balkan and Black Sea grain flows.

Import concentration rose as export markets became more diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of EU wheat imports by value rose from 2,158 in 2015 to 2,513 in 2025 (+16.4%), indicating a more concentrated import base. This increase reflects the growing combined weight of Ukraine and Canada, which together now dominate EU wheat inflows. The HHI reached a peak of approximately 3,088 during the period, coinciding with the height of Ukraine-related import flows.

By contrast, the export-side HHI declined from 747 to 634 (−15.2%), confirming that EU wheat is sold to a relatively diversified set of markets spread across North Africa, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the United Kingdom.

Specialisation data for 2025 shows that Latvia (RSCA 0.82, RCA 10.05) and Bulgaria (RSCA 0.82, RCA 10.01) are the most specialised wheat exporters in the EU, while large economies such as Italy (RSCA −0.82), Spain (RSCA −0.80), and the Netherlands (RSCA −0.89) are structurally oriented toward imports rather than exports of wheat. France, despite its declining absolute share, still holds a strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA 3.84) and accounts for roughly 30% of EU wheat production capacity.

3. Price Shocks, Volatility, and the Structural Legacy of the 2022 Grain Crisis

Wheat prices nearly doubled in 2022, marking the most extreme price event of the decade

The most dramatic episode in EU wheat trade over the period was the 2022 grain crisis, triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. EU export unit values jumped from €235/t in 2021 to €357/t in 2022 (+52%), while import unit values surged from €293/t to €369/t (+26%). These were the highest prices recorded over the entire period, far exceeding the pre-crisis range of €167–202/t for exports and €204–257/t for imports.

Despite the price spike, export volumes in 2022 (31.4 Mt) were only moderately above 2021 (29.0 Mt), but the elevated unit values pushed total export revenue to a record €11.21bn — 75% above the 2015 level. On the import side, the volume surge lagged the price surge: quantities peaked at 12.1 Mt in 2023 (from 7.0 Mt in 2022), as Ukraine's grain export corridors through EU territory became fully operational. Prices had already begun to normalise by 2023 (€257/t exports, €299/t imports), but the sheer volume of imports drove total import expenditure to a record €3.62bn. By 2025, prices had largely returned to pre-crisis levels (€216/t exports, €264/t imports), though they remained above the 2016–2018 lows, suggesting a lasting upward shift in the price baseline.

Import-side volatility is highest among politically sensitive or distant origins

The coefficient of variation (CV) of EU import values by partner reveals wide differences in supply reliability. Ukraine (CV 0.94) and Russia (CV 0.60) show high volatility, reflecting geopolitical disruption and the rerouting of trade flows. More distant or niche suppliers such as Türkiye (CV 1.39) and Mexico (CV 2.05) are even more erratic, though their trade volumes are smaller. By contrast, Canada (CV 0.37) — the EU's principal durum supplier — and the United States (CV 0.38) offer relatively stable import flows, consistent with long-standing commercial relationships.

On the export side, the key North African destinations are notably stable: Algeria (CV 0.22), Jordan (CV 0.22), Tunisia (CV 0.30), and Côte d'Ivoire (CV 0.31). These low coefficients of variation reflect the structural, recurring nature of EU wheat exports to food-import-dependent countries. More volatile export markets include China (CV 1.10) and Türkiye (CV 0.97), both of which saw episodic and unpredictable trade flows over the period.

Isolated price shocks in niche export flows had limited structural impact

The shock detection analysis identifies three notable price shock events during the period:

• Iran (2017): A price shift of +429% in exports to Iran (abnormality score 42.6), accounting for 2.0% of total export value — likely reflecting a one-off large procurement or sanctions-related market disruption.
• South Korea (2018): A price spike of +143% (abnormality 52.0), representing 1.3% of export value — possibly linked to temporary supply shortages from competing origins.
• Tunisia (2022): A price increase of +66% (abnormality 12.0), accounting for 3.9% of export value — consistent with the broader 2022 price shock affecting Mediterranean buyers.

While these events were statistically significant, each involved a relatively small share of total EU wheat trade. None individually caused a structural reorientation of flows. Rather, the defining event of the decade was the simultaneous, system-wide price surge of 2022, which affected all partners and both sides of the trade ledger at once.

Conclusion

EU wheat trade over 2015–2025 was shaped by three overarching dynamics. First, a structural narrowing of the trade surplus: export volumes declined by 14.2% while import volumes grew by 17.6%, compressing the surplus from €4.74bn to €3.87bn. Second, a geographic reorientation of trade flows: Ukraine emerged as the EU's most significant — and most volatile — new import source, while Romania and Bulgaria displaced France and Germany as the EU's fastest-growing wheat exporters. On the export-destination side, Morocco and Nigeria gained ground as Algeria and Egypt receded. Third, the 2022 grain crisis represented a watershed: it doubled wheat prices, briefly inflated the surplus to a record €8.64bn through elevated export revenues, and triggered a subsequent import surge in 2023 as Ukrainian grain transited through EU territory in unprecedented volumes.

By 2025, prices had largely normalised, but structural effects persisted. The import base was more concentrated than at the start of the period (HHI 2,513 vs. 2,158 in 2015), the composition had tilted decisively toward common wheat, and the EU's role as a corridor for Black Sea grain had left a lasting imprint on trade statistics. Looking ahead, the durability of these shifts — and the EU's ability to balance its traditional role as a wheat exporter with growing import dependence — will hinge on harvest conditions, geopolitical developments in the Black Sea region, and the pace of demand growth in North African and Sub-Saharan markets.